Wednesday, September 23, 2020

FX Strategy 23 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 23 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, USD and CHF are the top gainers today while AUD and NZD are the top losers, down -0.63% and -0.58% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.005, down -0.2bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.668, down -0.3bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.512, down -1.0bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.191, down -1.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Kospi was trading at 2333.24, up 0.03%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23346.49, down -0.06%. The Hang Seng was trading at 23645.0, down -0.3%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12732.3, up 1.1%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5879.98, up 0.87%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3198.05, up 1.07%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5847.2, up 0.52%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3184.0, up 0.66%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3300.12, up 0.03%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 39.44, down -0.4%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 41.41, down -0.74%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already had September data from Japan with Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash (Actual 45.6 v Forecast 47), Manufacturing PMI Flash (Actual 47.3 v Forecast 48) and Composite PMI Flash (Actual 45.5 v Forecast 48). We have also seen German GfK Consumer Confidence for October (Actual -1.6 v Forecast -3) and Spanish GDP Q2 data with Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 (Actual -17.8% v Forecast -18.5%) and Growth Rate YoY Final (Actual -21.5% v Forecast -22.1%). We also expect Markit Manufacturing, Services and Composite data for France, Germany, the Euro Area and the UK between 07:15 GMT and 08:30 GMT. At 11:00 GMT Mexican Retail Sales for July is released for both MoM (Previous 7.8% v Forecast 5%) and YoY (Previous -16.6 v Forecast -10).

 

This afternoon at 13:00 GMT Fed's Mester is speaking alongside the release of July's US House Price Index YoY (Previous 5.7% v Forecast 5.8%) and MoM (Previous 0.9% v Forecast 0.7%). At 14:00 GMT Fed's Chair Powell will be testifying to the House also. Fed's Evans and Quarles are speaking afterwards at 15:00 GMT and 18:00 GMT respectively. Later this evening at 23:50 GMT, Bank of Japan will be releasing their Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1792 for 1.1651
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1792 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1651 enter at 1.1745. Above 1.1792 to open 1.1852

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.2853 for 1.2661
Short-term view: GBPUSD resistance comes in at 1.2853 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.2661 enter at 1.279. Above 1.2853 to open 1.293

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 104.52 for 105.42
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 104.52 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 105.42 enter at 104.82. Below 104.52 to open 104.13

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7249 for 0.7123
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.7249 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.7123 enter at 0.7207. Above 0.7249 to open 0.7298

 
 
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