Tuesday, September 1, 2020

FX Strategy 01 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 01 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and SEK are the top gainers today, up 0.59% and 0.47% versus the dollar while JPY and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.713, up 0.7bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.041, flat 0.0bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.405, down -0.7bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.305, down -0.8bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Kospi was trading at 2349.55, up 1.01%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23138.07, down -0.01%. The Hang Seng was trading at 25169.0, down -0.03%. In the European equities, indices were trading mixed today. The DAX 30 was trading at 13019.15, up 0.57%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3287.85, up 0.47%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5927.6, down -0.6%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far,The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3286.0, up 0.64%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3508.12, up 0.26%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5930.2, down -0.22%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading stronger today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.77, up 1.08%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 43.1, up 1.15%.

 

Earlier this morning we have already had the Australian Building Permits MoM for July (Actual 12% v Forecast -1.9%) with the RBA also keeping Interest Rates at 0.25%. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI also beat expectations (Actual 53.1 v Forecast 52.4). ECB's Guindos is also speaking early in the European trading session; this is followed by German Markit Manufacturing Final for August (Previous 51 v Forecast 53) and German Unemployment Rate for August (Previous 6.4% v Forecast 6.4%). EA Market Manufacturing PMI Final for August follows at 08:00 GMT (Previous 51.8 v Forecast 51.7). At 09:00 GMT we have EA data releases, including Inflation Rate MoM Flash for August (Previous -0.4% v Forecast -0.2%), Inflation Rate YoY (Previous 0.4% v Forecast 0.0%) and Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.8% v Forecast 8%).

 

Moving into the afternoon session, we have Brazilian GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 (Previous -0.3% v Forecast -10%) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Previous -1.5% v Forecast -9.2%). US ISM Manufacturing New Orders (Previous 61.5 v Forecast 57.6) and Manufacturing Prices (Previous 53.2 v Forecast 52.8) for August alongside US Construction Spending MoM for July (Previous -0.7% v Forecast 0.5%) are all released at 14:00 GMT. Later in the afternoon session, we have ECB's Lane and Fed's Brainard speaking at 16:00 GMT & 17:00 GMT respectively.Later this evening at 23:00 GMT South Korean Inflation Rate YoY is also released onto the wires (Previous 0.3% v Forecast 0.4%).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1929 for 1.2011
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1929 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.2011 enter at 1.1956. Below 1.1929 to open 1.1891

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3355 for 1.3449
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3355 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3449 enter at 1.3386. Below 1.3355 to open 1.3315

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.43 for 106.24
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 105.43 and we see a rise to 106.24 enter at 105.65. Below 105.43 to open 104.95

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7373 for 0.7436
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 0.7373 and we see a rise to 0.7436 enter at 0.7394. Below 0.7373 to open 0.7343

 
 
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