Wednesday, August 19, 2020

FX Strategy 19 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 19 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NZD and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.26% and 0.09% versus the dollar while USD and JPY are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, flat 0.0bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.209, down -0.9bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.657, down -1.3bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.472, down -1.6bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23110.61, up 0.26%. The Kospi was trading at 2360.54, up 0.52%. The Hang Seng was trading at 25136.0, down -0.91%. In the European equities, indices were trading weak today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3281.85, down -0.24%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6059.05, down -0.29%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12842.25, down -0.31%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, SP500 Futures was trading at 3386.38, down -0.02%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3276.0, down -0.03%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 6042.8, down -0.24%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weak today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.56, down -0.77%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.05, down -0.9%.

 

Today we have already seen a whole host of UK data for July, with headline Inflation Rate YoY (Actual 1% v Forecast 0.7%), Inflation Rate MoM (Actual 0.5% v Forecast 0.2%), Core Inflation Rate YoY (Actual 1.8% v Forecast 1.4%), Retail Price Index MoM (Actual 0.5% v Forecast 0.2%), Retail Price Index YoY (Actual 1.6% v Forecast 1.3%), PPI Output YoY (Actual -0.9% v Forecast -0.8%) and PPI Input YoY (Actual -5.7% v Forecast -6%).

 

This morning we look forward to the South African Inflation Rate for July YoY (Previous 2.2% v Forecast 2%) at 08:00 GMT with EA Core Inflation Rate YoY for July (Previous 0.8% v Forecast 1.2%) and Inflation Rate YoY Final for June (Previous 0.3% v Forecast 0.4%) at 09:00 GMT.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, we have Canadian Inflation Rate YoY for July (Previous 0.7% v Forecast 0.5%), Inflation Rate MoM for July (Previous 0.8% v Forecast 0.4%) and Core Inflation Rate YoY for July (Previous 1.1% v Forecast 1.1%) which are all released at 12:30 GMT. At 14:30 GMT we have the weekly US Oil data releases also. All eyes are on the FOMC Minutes which are released at 18:00 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1876 for 1.1976
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1876 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1976 enter at 1.1909. Below 1.1876 to open 1.1822

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3195 for 1.3293
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3195 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3293 enter at 1.3227. Below 1.3195 to open 1.314

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.9 for 105.1
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 105.9 and we see a dip to 105.1 enter at 105.64. Above 105.9 to open 106.39

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7269 for 0.7213
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7269 and we see a dip to 0.7213 enter at 0.7251. Above 0.7269 to open 0.7295

 
 
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