Tuesday, August 11, 2020

FX Strategy 11 Aug 2020

 
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FX Strategy 11 Aug 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NZD and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.22% and 0.21% versus the dollar while JPY and GBP are the top losers, down -0.22% and -0.06% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.14, up 1.2bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.023, up 0.5bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.521, up 0.4bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.581, flat 0.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading firm today. The Hang Seng was trading at 24828.0, up 1.85%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 22750.24, up 1.88%. The Kospi was trading at 2418.67, up 1.35%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12808.5, up 0.95%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 6101.51, up 0.84%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3291.55, up 0.98%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, FTSE100 Futures were trading at 6072.2, up 0.88%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3286.0, up 1.01%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3360.38, up 0.23%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading firm today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 42.16, up 0.52%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 45.12, up 0.29%.

 

Today we have already had the NAB Business Confidence (July) for Australia (Actual -14 v Forecast -1) and more recently UK Claimant Count Change (Actual 94.4K v Forecast 5K), Employment Change (Actual -220K v Forecast -280K) and Unemployment Rate (Actual 3.9% v Forecast 4.2%) for July. This morning we have German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous 59.3 v Forecast 62) and EA ZEW Economic Sentiment (Previous 59.6 v Forecast 62) at 09:00 GMT with South African Q2 Unemployment Rate released at 09:30 GMT (Previous 30.1% v Forecast 34%).

 

Moving into this afternoon we have Canadian Housing Starts data for July being released at 12:15 GMT (Previous 211.7K v Forecast 210K), with US PPI MoM (Previous -0.2% v Forecast 0.3%), PPI YoY (Previous -0.8% v Forecast -0.7%), Core PPI MoM (Previous -0.3% v Forecast 0.1%) and Core PPI YoY (Previous 0.1% v Forecast 0.0%) for July being released at 12:30 GMT. At 13:00 GMT we have Russian GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q2 (Previous 1.6% v Forecast -9.6%) being released also. Fed's Daly is speaking later today at16:00 GMT also.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1758 for 1.1715
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1758 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1715 enter at 1.1744. Above 1.1758 to open 1.178

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.3027 for 1.3111
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.3027 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3111 enter at 1.3055. Below 1.3027 to open 1.2981

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 105.96 for 106.45
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 105.96 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 106.45 enter at 106.12. Below 105.96 to open 105.71

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7131 for 0.7175
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7131 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.7175 enter at 0.7146. Below 0.7131 to open 0.7114

 
 
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