Tuesday, August 25, 2020

A massive impact from this speech is expected. U.S. plans to restore the economy

Waiting for Powell's speech

Hello, my name is Nicholas. I am a financial analyst in the OctaFX team.

Let's rewind to review the events that impacted the market and which events will affect it this week.

Global policymakers launched an unprecedented wave of monetary easing and financial support to offset the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. However, investors are concerned about the impasse in negotiations between House Democrats and Republicans over the next bill to help those impacted by the coronavirus. 28 million Americans are expected to continue to collect unemployment checks. This has caused the dollar to fell to record lows last week.

Negotiations between Britain and the European Union regarding a post-Brexit trade deal continue, although not as speedy as investors would like this to be. As a result, the Euro's surge has slowed down. Also, weak economic data pointing to a slower recovery in the Eurozone hit the region's stock markets on Friday, as the coronavirus cases increased.

This week, investors will be closely watching Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell's speech on Thursday for a hint on how aggressively the U.S. Central Bank will try to manage the long-term recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Upcoming news

25 August

Tuesday

EUR: Gross Domestic Product

USD: New Home Sales

26 August

Wednesday

USD: Durable Goods Orders

27 August

Thursday

CHF: Gross Domestic Product

USD: Initial Jobless Claims

USD: Gross Domestic Product Annualised

28 August

Friday

EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

CAD: Gross Domestic Product Annualised

30 August

Sunday

CNY: Non-Manufacturing PMI

CNY: NBS Manufacturing PMI

Market sentiment

Indices

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Friday. Data released by Apple indicates positivity within the U.S. economy. Business activity in the U.S. has returned to August 2019 levels. Another reporter shows investors that U.S. home sales rose at a record pace for the second consecutive month while home prices reached an all-time high. The indices may correct itself downward before growing again.

Currencies

Sentiment towards the U.S. dollar has improved due to positive economic data on economic activity, but concerns linger regarding how much monetary easing may be needed to maintain economic growth. The dollar stabilised against most major currencies Monday, as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve chair's speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which will provide a glimpse to the U.S.'s future monetary policy.

Gold

With gold prices falling recently due to the introduction of a vaccine fashioned in the Russian Federation, uncertainty has grown. Nearly 1.3 billion USD has been withdrawn from ETF's that specialise in gold. Most likely, we are waiting for a series of regular sales due to the dollar's strengthening. The support level is 1906, and if the price drops lower, it's possible to consider changing the trend from up to down.

Oil

On Sunday, hurricane Marco and tropical storm Laura swept through the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, forcing energy companies to recall workers from offshore platforms, halting oil production. Despite this, oil prices remain unchanged, as investors are more fearful of a second wave of coronavirus, which would lower oil demand more than a temporary stop in production. Growth of Brent oil prices has been unable to crack the 45-USD level, so a sharp jump in the near future is unlikely.

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