News: The political lessons of 2024

Monday, December 23, 2024

The political lessons of 2024

Dec 23, 2024

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for the holidays starting Dec. 25, but will be back to our normal schedule on Monday, Jan. 6.

TOP LINE

As we wrap up the wild political year that was 2024, we’re taking some time for reflection.

Score reached out to a handful of political operatives to get their take: What’s a lesson you learned this year that you’re taking into the next election cycle?

Donald Trump gestures to supporters onstage at rally.

Former President Donald Trump departs after delivering remarks during a rally at Santander Arena on Oct. 9, 2024, in Reading, Pennsylvania. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Here’s what they had to say.

Responses, which were provided over email, have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

— Danielle Barrow, executive director of Winning For Women Action Fund, a GOP group: We've always argued that women are not single-issue voters, but we really saw that play out this cycle. Democrats made a huge mistake in focusing entire campaigns on issues like abortion and IVF. Republicans did a much better job correcting false attacks on those issues than in 2022, and we need to keep doing that going forward. But we also knew that strong messages on the economy, inflation, and immigration would make the biggest impact, and that strategy paid off.

— Brent Buchanan, president and founder of Cygnal, a GOP polling firm: The mainstream media is losing its influence, and niche online-based media personalities and outlets matter more. Why? Because that's where less news-connected voters spend their time. These voters are younger, lower income, less educated, and that's exactly who Republicans need to continue to build relationships with and turn out to win elections in the future, especially midterms.

— Danielle Butterfield, executive director of Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC: Voters are telling us what they care about every single time they pick up their phone, search for something on Google, or tune into a podcast. We simply need to do a better job of listening to them.

— Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership: This was a pocketbook election. Financial indicators were not in line with what Americans were experiencing. Sky-high groceries, gas, and housing prices drove voters to the candidate they believed could handle the economy better: President Trump.

— Larry Huynh, president of the American Association of Political Consultants and partner at Trilogy Interactive, a Democratic digital firm: Creators and non-traditional media voices will continue to impact campaign outcomes. Learn to engage and navigate their non-political spaces or lose.

— Jessica Mackler, president of EMILYs List, a Democratic group: This cycle reminded us of a vital lesson: the diversity of our candidates is a strength with voters. At EMILYs List, we know that investing in women candidates is a winning strategy for the Democratic Party. Women were key to battling out and winning highly competitive races across the map, including three battleground Senate races and four House districts carried by Donald Trump. Heading into 2025 and 2026, doubling down on women candidates in governor and House races is our strongest path to rebuilding Democratic power across the board.

— Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan polling firm: Polling isn’t just about numbers — it’s about trust. Without methodological rigor and transparency, the insights lose their power. A key takeaway this year is the growing importance of local and regional nuances in shaping national trends. In the next election cycle, I’m focusing on leveraging these insights to better inform decision-makers and the public. Voter behavior is shifting rapidly. From the way respondents engage with surveys to reaching hard-to-reach demographic groups, staying ahead requires innovation at every step.

— Domenic Re, political director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ main outside super PAC, for the 2024 cycle: Nothing is as important to a winning campaign as weight of message across all mediums. We only saw evidence of our advertising breaking through most when we were spending heavily across all platforms: TV, streaming, etc. There are no shortcuts here. Several of our best wins this cycle were races where some may have thought we were going overboard on spending at points. Turns out, we were right on the money.

— Shripal Shah, independent expenditure director of House Majority PAC, House Democrats’ main outside super PAC: Media consumption habits across the electorate have changed drastically and campaigns are catching up by diversifying their buying strategies and tactics. That's great. But we learned that our content strategy must evolve as well to meet the moment. For HMP, that meant investing in partnerships with content creators who we used to source ads so that we could deliver a message in a way that didn't just feel authentic but also looked organic. We were proud to lead this effort at scale for the first time across the House Democratic ecosystem, but we want to do more in 2026 — and not just for our advertising programs but for organic purposes as well. That's the only way we're going to be able to have a long-term, sustained conversation with low-propensity voters who don't consume traditional media.

— Eric Wilson, a GOP digital strategist and executive director of the Center for Campaign Innovation: There are two electorates: the 50 percent of voters who actively seek out news and information about politics and the other half who are passive consumers or even news avoiders. Campaigners spend a lot of time worrying about and talking to the tuned in, but we need to grow relational organizing and influencer marketing to reach the tuned out.

Happy Monday! A bittersweet note from me: This is my last edition of Weekly Score. (For my Pro subscribers, you still have me for one more day.)

First off, a huge thank you to all of my Score readers over the last two-plus years. Since taking the helm of this newsletter in August of the midterms, I’ve been so lucky to have a space to dive into down-ballot coverage, wonky campaign finance and oft-overlooked ballot measures. It’s a huge task to cover so many campaigns at all levels of the ballot, but I hope this has been a resource for everyone — from the most tuned-in political observers to the more casual spectators — to get some insight into our democratic processes.

I’m not going too far — I’ll be joining POLITICO’s New Jersey team to cover the 2025 gubernatorial race and the statehouse. As we’ve been chronicling in this newsletter, it’s going to be a monumental year in the Garden State, with a major ballot redesign underway and one of the biggest elections of 2025. I’m excited to dive in — and if you’re working on that race or just want to chat New Jersey, you know where to find me.

I hope you’re able to take some time in the coming days to spend time with your loved ones and take a breather — and then buckle up for 2025.

Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com, @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2025 election: 316

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Lara Trump took her name out of consideration to succeed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Trump’s pick to be secretary of state. Gov. Ron DeSantis said he’ll choose his appointee early next year.

“Several people could be in the mix for the spot, including Attorney General Ashley Moody, Lt. Gov. Jeanette Núñez, DeSantis chief of staff James Uthmeier and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva,” POLITICO’s Gary Fineout writes. “But in recent weeks Moody has emerged as the top contender for the job. If DeSantis were to select Moody he could then potentially appoint his long-time ally and former presidential campaign manager Uthmeier to the job of attorney general.”

TRUMP CARDS — Trump is backing Arizona Republican Karrin Taylor Robson for governor in 2026, if she chooses to run. Robson, who during the 2022 GOP primary for the seat had the support of the likes of then-Gov. Doug Ducey and former Vice President Mike Pence but lost to Trump-backed Kari Lake, has been floated as a potential candidate to take on Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs when she runs for reelection. Robson said she is “beyond honored to have his support.”

… Republican New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli “said he welcomes Trump’s involvement in the governor’s race,” POLITICO’s Daniel Han reports. Ciattarelli, the GOP’s nominee in the 2021 race who narrowly lost to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, “held Trump at arm’s length” during that race, but “has since become a clear Trump supporter,” Daniel writes. “Trump endorsing in the GOP primary would likely upend the race.”

PRIMARY COLORS — “Elon Musk said he’ll be funding moderate primary challengers to incumbent Democrats in deep-blue seats around the country, as he continues to try to influence a wide swath of government,” POLITICO’s Anthony Adragna writes. Musk has implied he’s setting his sights on Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), “an odd choice for Musk … to single out,” Anthony writes. “He’s been repeatedly hit by progressive groups for what they view as overly cozy ties to industry — and bested a serious progressive challenger in 2020 for the seat he’s held since 1989.”

… Could Trump-backed primary challenges be on the way for the Republicans who voted against the spending bill that ultimately passed over the weekend, avoiding a government shutdown? Thirty-eight Republicans voted against an earlier unsuccessful iteration of the bill backed by Trump, ranging “from conservatives called out by name by the president-elect — like Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) — to less visible agitators like Republican Reps. Aaron Bean (Fla.), Russ Fulcher (Idaho) and Wesley Hunt (Texas),” Anthony and Olivia Beavers write. “Other conservatives minimized the primary threat, given their seats are comfortably Republican and often support incumbents by wide margins.”

Some of those 38 switched their vote to support the temporary funding patch the House passed late Friday night. That legislation had 34 GOP detractors.

COURT WATCHIN’ — The battle over the results of November’s North Carolina state Supreme Court race continues as Republican Jefferson Griffin, who lost to Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs, faces setbacks as he contests the results. “The State Board of Elections voted to dismiss a slate of pending election protests filed by … Griffin,” The News and Observer’s Luciana Perez Uribe Guinassi reports. “Meanwhile, a federal judge declined to take immediate action requested by Griffin in his case challenging 60,000 ballots cast in his race. … Griffin requested that the federal court enter a temporary restraining order prohibiting the board from certifying Riggs as the winner. On Friday, U.S. Chief District Judge Richard Myers denied that temporary restraining order, saying in his order that the defendant ‘failed to make a clear showing that he will suffer immediate injury.’”

IN THE STATES — “A Democratic state lawmaker-elect is barred from taking the oath of office after a district court judge ruled Friday that the candidate had failed to comply with state residency requirements, putting the 67-67 tie in the Minnesota House in doubt and giving Republicans a path to a slim majority,” MPR News’ Dana Ferguson and Clay Masters write. “His ruling gives Republicans a one-vote edge in the chamber though there is more court activity and possibly a legislative fight ahead.”

MAKING MY WAY DOWN-BALLOT — Outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) said she’s considering a run for mayor of Oakland in April’s special election after voters recalled former Mayor Sheng Thao in November. That effort “was bankrolled by moderate advocacy groups and wealthy tech donors who want to move the deep-blue city in a more centrist direction,” POLITICO’s Dustin Gardiner writes. “Lee, a national progressive icon, … would immediately be the frontrunner in the race, and her candidacy could cause other progressives to clear the field. Lee’s candidacy could create a headache for moderate activists and donors eager to put a more centrist Democrat at the helm of City Hall.”

Plenty of former members of Congress continue their political careers by heading down-ballot.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “If it's got to be a ‘Star Wars’-type encounter, let it be.” — Ciattarelli on getting rid of the drones.

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