| | | | |  | | By Adam Wren | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | FOR YOUR CALENDAR — Former President JIMMY CARTER will lay in state in the rotunda of the U.S. Capitol from Jan. 7 through the morning of Jan. 9, congressional leaders announced yesterday. More from Katherine Tully-McManus CLICKER — “Inside the craziest Congress in recent memory,” by NBC’s Scott Wong and Frank Thorp V, with interviews from KEVIN McCARTHY, MATT GAETZ, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, JAMAAL BOWMAN and more. SUSIE WILES LAYS DOWN THE LAW — “Trump team orders ‘all intended nominees’ to stop posting on social media ahead of Senate confirmations,” by NY Post’s Diana Glebova SO MUCH FOR THAT — Yesterday morning — just hours after we brought you Olivia Beaver’s scoop that Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) was trying to gauge the viability of JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) in case Speaker Mike Johnson proved unable to secure the gavel for another term this Friday — President-elect DONALD TRUMP weighed in. “Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement.” Real talk: Trump’s endorsement is unlikely to seal the deal for Johnson. (“With tight margins and a large number of unpredictable members, nothing is a lock,” Rep. DUSTY JOHNSON (R-S.D.) told our Nicholas Wu and Meredith Lee Hill.) But it is likely to give second thoughts to any backbenchers who were thinking of joining Reps. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) and VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.) in going public with their displeasure over his speakership — which could be enough to get Johnson over the line. This quotation captures the dynamic well: “No one is happy with Johnson, but no one wants to openly talk about alternatives,” a House GOP aide told Nicholas and Meredith.
|  Podcasters like Joe Rogan drove a huge portion of the presidential campaign. | Gregory Payan/AP | WHAT DROVE THE YEAR — As we say goodbye to 2024, a whipsaw of a political year, it’s worth stepping back in a newsletter obsessed with what’s driving the day and reflecting about what drove the year. This year will be forever branded on the American political consciousness, one remembered for the first criminal conviction of a former president, not to mention half a billion dollars in court-ordered payments and a defamation case; two assassination attempts; the current president dropping out after a disastrous debate performance and endorsing his own running mate to succeed him on the ticket; and that same former president storming back to win 312 electoral votes. If you’re like us, you haven’t caught your breath since the election, even as a new year promises — or threatens, depending on your point of view — to reveal itself. Here, a non-exhaustive list of what broke through in 2024, what we’ll leave behind and what will stalk us into 2025: — THE PODCAST ELECTION: In the same way that online organizing shaped the 2004 campaign and Twitter shaped the 2012 election, podcasts redefined politics this year. Brofluencers like JOE ROGAN and THEO VON helped Trump win, as KAMALA HARRIS sought rival audiences on “Call Her Daddy” and “Club Shay Shay.” This fragmenting information space increasingly resulted in two different but parallel realities — a trend that promises to shape the next four years. — THE SUNSETTING OF WASHINGTON’S OLD GUARD: When Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.), 82, announced he would not seek another term as Senate GOP leader, he said “it’s time for the next generation of leadership.” A few months later, President JOE BIDEN, who was 81 at the time, stepped aside from his reelection bid. They had nearly 90 combined years of Washington governance between them, beginning in a genteel-but-imperfect era to which it’s hard to imagine the nation will ever return. — THE RISE OF THE DEMOCRATIC BENCH: In a striking moment of candor during the 2020 campaign, Biden called himself a “bridge” to a new generation of leaders. This year, from his faltering debate in June through the election in November, we got a look at where — and to whom — that bridge might lead: a free-for-all 2028 Democratic primary that could include outgoing VP KAMALA HARRIS, Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG, California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM, Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER, Kenutcky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR and many, many more. How they’ll redefine the Democratic Party’s brand after bruising losses in 2026 and beyond will be a major storyline. Related read: “The Democrats and Republicans Best Positioned — Right Now — for 2028,” by Bill Scher — REAGANISM’S FINAL DEATH: If what constituted for the lackluster 2024 Republican presidential primary mattered at all, it was because it marked the GOP’s final goodbye to traditional fiscal conservatism at home and hawkishness abroad that defined it for four decades. The candidates most in touch with that ideological stream of the party — former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY and former VP MIKE PENCE — saw sharp declines in their respective stocks. — POLITICAL REALIGNMENT: Trump’s reelection saw one out of every five of his votes cast by voters of color, according to network exit polls. Latino voters shifted right. Black voters shifted right. Will the Democratic Party be able to recapture these voters and rebuild the coalition that Biden built four short years ago over the next four? — THE MESSY RIGHT: With Republican majorities in the House and Senate and regaining the White House, the most interesting drama is on the right side of the aisle. Whether it’s Johnson's battle to hold onto the speaker's gavel, near-term prospects of which improved this week, or the civil war over H-1B visas, majorities mean more problems. Happy New Year’s Eve. Thanks for reading Playbook. What did I miss? Drop me a line at awren@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to make housing more available.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy. Addressing housing availability through tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unlock supply, and solve a national crisis. | | | WHO HAD A BAD 2024: INCUMBENTS — “This was the first year since records began in 1905 that every incumbent party [globally] lost vote share in developed countries holding elections, according to data from ParlGov, an independent database run by the University of Bremen in Germany,” writes NBC’s Alexander Smith. WHO HAD A GOOD 2024: THE ULTRA-WEALTHY — “World’s 500 Richest People Surpassed $10 Trillion in Wealth This Year,” by Bloomberg’s Dylan Sloan and Jack Witzig: Eight tech titans — ELON MUSK, MARK ZUCKERBERG, JENSEN HUANG, LARRY ELLISON, JEFF BEZOS, MICHAEL DELL, LARRY PAGE and SERGEY BRIN — alone “gained more than $600 billion this year, 43% of the $1.5 trillion increase among the 500 richest people tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.” WHO HAD AN UNEASY 2024: VOTERS — “What I Saw on the Road to Trump’s Victory: Fear,” by David Siders
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   The pathway to more housing availability runs through the tax code. See our blueprint to unlock supply. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will depart St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands to return to Wilmington, Delaware.
| | | | You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
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Elon Musk has been close to Trump since the election — literally. | Pool photo by Brandon Bell | 1. MUSK READ: “How Elon Musk Has Planted Himself Almost Literally at Trump’s Doorstep,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Ryan Mac: “Musk has been using one of the cottages available for rent on Mr. Trump’s property at Mar-a-Lago, the former MARJORIE MERRIWEATHER POST home in Florida that Mr. Trump converted into a members-only club and hotel in the 1990s, according to two people with knowledge of the arrangement. The cottage where he has been staying, named Banyan, is several hundred feet away from the main house, according to a person who knows the property. … “Mr. Musk, who spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars in the final months of this year’s election cycle to help elect Mr. Trump, has attended personnel meetings in the Mar-a-Lago Teahouse, sat in on phone calls with foreign leaders and spent hours with Mr. Trump in his office. Mr. Musk’s employees from his various businesses have also been integrally involved in the transition, vetting prospective candidates for senior administration jobs, in interviews at the Trump transition headquarters in West Palm Beach. … “Mr. Trump has bragged to people that Mr. Musk — the world’s richest man — is ‘renting’ one of the residential spaces at Mar-a-Lago. It is unclear how much Mr. Musk will ultimately end up paying for the cottage, which historically has rented for at least $2,000 a night, according to a person with knowledge of the fees.” 2. THE TRUMP TRIALS: As special counsel JACK SMITH’s work continues to wind down, his team has now “withdrawn from their appeal of the classified documents case against President-elect Donald Trump's co-defendants and referred the case to the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of Florida,” ABC’s Katherine Faulders and Peter Charalambous report. “Smith last month dropped his appeal against Trump due to a longstanding Department of Justice policy prohibiting the prosecution of a sitting president, but his team continued to pursue their appeal against Trump's two co-defendants in the case, longtime Trump aide WALT NAUTA and Mar-a-Lago employee CARLOS DE OLIVEIRA.” Meanwhile, a federal appeals court yesterday upheld a jury’s $5 million civil verdict against Trump for sexual abuse and defamation claims brought by the writer E. JEAN CARROLL, Kyle Cheney reports. “A three-judge panel ruled unanimously Monday that the trial judge did not violate Trump’s rights when he allowed Carroll to present evidence suggesting Trump had committed other sexual assaults.” Trump may appeal the ruling to the full bench of the Manhattan-based 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals or to the Supreme Court, and aides indicated he would continue to appeal the case. 3. HACK JOB: The Treasury Department earlier this year was breached by a Chinese state-sponsored hacker in a “major” cybersecurity incident, the department told lawmakers yesterday, Sam Sutton reports. “Treasury learned of the hack on Dec. 8 through an outside vendor, BeyondTrust, which found the hacker had obtained an online key used to provide remote technical support for Treasury offices through its cloud-based service, according to a letter sent to Senate Banking Chair SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) and ranking Republican Sen. TIM SCOTT of South Carolina. The letter, which was obtained by POLITICO, noted that the hacker overrode security systems and was able to remotely access Treasury workstations and ‘certain unclassified documents maintained by those users.’” 4. WHAT THE E-RING IS READING: The Pentagon’s appeals court yesterday “upheld a military judge’s finding that the plea deals in the Sept. 11 case are valid, clearing the way at least for now for a guilty plea hearing next week with the accused mastermind of the attack, KHALID SHAIKH MOHAMMED,” NYT’s Carol Rosenberg reports. “Col. MATTHEW N. McCALL, the judge in the case, had ruled that Defense Secretary LLOYD J. AUSTIN III acted too late and beyond the scope of his authority when he rescinded the three deals on Aug. 2, two days after a senior Pentagon appointee had signed them. Under the pretrial agreements, or PTAs, Mr. Mohammed and two co-defendants agreed to plead guilty to war crimes charges in exchange for life prison sentences rather than face a death-penalty trial.” Related read: “Pentagon Releases Detainee Held at Guantánamo Since Day 1,” by NYT’s Carol Rosenberg
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   Tax reform is the key to more housing supply. See our plan. | | | 5. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “Chinese Companies Have Sidestepped Trump’s Tariffs. They Could Do It Again,” by NYT’s Ana Swanson: “Economists say many companies, both Chinese and multinational, have continued to rely on Chinese products and parts, which are now flowing into the United States from factories set up outside China’s borders. In other words, some Chinese products are merely taking a longer trip around the world on their way to the United States, in an attempt to avoid tariffs. Rather than making global supply chains stronger and more diversified, economists say, this may be weakening them — while adding costs for companies and consumers.” Related read: “Chinese Muslims, After Finding a Refuge in Queens, Now Fear Trump,” by NYT’s Li Yuan 6. THE VIEW FROM WALL STREET: “Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century,” by WSJ’s Karen Langley: “U.S. stocks roared to another blockbuster showing in 2024. Few expect such a torrid advance in the year to come. The S&P 500 has climbed 24%, notching 57 record closes as the economy remained healthy, inflation ticked lower and an AI-fueled rally in big tech stocks powered on. Even with a stumble in the last few trading days, the broad U.S. stock index is on pace for its best consecutive years since 1997 and 1998, according to Dow Jones Market Data, during the lead-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.” 7. GO WEST: “‘You don’t get red-pilled overnight’: California’s political players explain what happened in 2024,” by Melanie Mason: “In a state as populous, diverse and politically idiosyncratic as California, the most thorough analyses will take some time. But some early takeaways are starting to crystallize. In some purple parts of the state, Democratic campaigns engaged with voters to withstand national headwinds, while Republicans made inroads via ballot initiatives, and the state’s affordability crisis disillusioned Latino voters. All three factors could have major ramifications in 2026, when California voters will pick their next governor and determine a handful of battleground House seats.” 8. SEOUL MAN: “South Korean court issues arrest warrant for embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol,” by CNN’s Yoonjung Seo, Gawon Bae and Chris Lau: “It is the first time a sitting South Korean president has faced an arrest warrant and the dramatic new showdown between investigators and the president came the same day extraordinary new details emerged of the night [President] YOON [SUK YEOL] tried to shutter parliament.” 9. FOR YOUR RADAR: “Africa Has Entered a New Era of War,” by WSJ’s Gabriele Steinhauser, Andrew Barnett and Emma Brown: “Older wars, such as the Islamist uprisings in northern Nigeria and Somalia and the militia warfare in eastern Congo, have intensified dramatically. New power contests between militarized elites in Ethiopia and Sudan are convulsing two of Africa’s largest and most populous nations. The countries of the western Sahel are now the heart of global jihadism, where regional offshoots of al Qaeda and Islamic State are battling both each other and a group of wobbly military governments. … In its wake lies incalculable human suffering — mass displacement, atrocities against civilians and extreme hunger — on a continent that is already by far the poorest on the planet.”
| | | | POLITICO Pro's unique analysis combines exclusive transition intelligence and data visualization to help you understand not just what's changing, but why it matters for your organization. Explore how POLITICO Pro will make a difference for you. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Sarah McBride is hoping she can enter Congress with a touch of grace. Muriel Bowser says she had a “great meeting” with Donald Trump. Elaine Chao has some advice for Trump’s Labor and Transportation secretaries. Hillary Cassel, a Democratic Florida state lawmaker, is switching to the Republican Party. Ian Cramer, the son of Kevin Cramer, was sentenced to 28 years in prison over a car chase that ended with a crash that killed a sheriff’s deputy. IN MEMORIAM — “Aaron Brown, former CNN anchor and influential newsman, dies at 76,” by CNN’s Hanna Park: “Aaron Brown, the renowned CNN anchor who gained prominence for his coverage of the September 11 attacks and his pivotal role in shaping the network’s evening news format, died Sunday at 76, his family said. Brown’s career in journalism began in local television in Seattle before becoming the founding anchor of ABC’s overnight news program ‘World News Now’ and anchoring ‘World News Tonight Saturday.’” MEDIA MOVES — Ashley Parker, a senior national political correspondent for the Washington Post, and Michael Scherer, a national political reporter for the Post, are joining The Atlantic, per NYT’s Benjamin Mullin. TRANSITION — Jacob Glasser is joining Rep.-elect Sarah McBride’s (D-Del.) office as legislative director. He previously was senior policy adviser to Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.). ENGAGED — Stephanie Braunlich, a line producer on Newsmax’s “National Report,” and Devin Sullivan, a technician at Speer Air, got engaged on Dec. 20 on a trip to Milford, Pennsylvania, where Devin took Stepahnie on a horse and carriage ride before walking her to a nearby church and proposing in front of a Christmas tree while it was snowing. The couple met through a life-long mutual friend. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) … Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) … Donald Trump Jr. … Pete Souza … DNC’s Abhi Rahman … David Wilezol … WaPo’s Josh Rogin, Joel Achenbach and Naftali Bendavid … Robyn Bryan Jackson of Ford … Angie Yack … APCO Worldwide’s Wayne Pines … Max Pedrotti … Shannon Vavra … Rick Bosh … POLITICO’s Afra Abdullah and Mark Wegner … Peter G. Miller ... Meg Boland ... Meeghan Prunty … … Brian Danza … DOD’s Chris Estep … Martin J. Kady … Wade Atkinson … former Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) … former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) … Shelby Hartley … Mark Ein … Annabel Lassally … Betsy Barrett … Bloomberg’s Simon Kennedy … Andy Seré … Elliot Mamet … Rebekah Goodheart of Jenner & Block (5-0) … Ronnie Cho Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to promote homeownership and boost economic growth.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most. More than 375,000 listings in the $250,000 and under price range are missing from the market.
We’ve worked with Congress to endorse a package of bills with broad support that would unlock housing inventory.
Legislation like the More Homes on the Market Act would incentivize long-term homeowners to sell by increasing the amount of capital gains they can exclude from the sale of a principal residence.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy, and each home sale generates $125,000 in local economic activity and two jobs.
Addressing housing availability in tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unleash housing inventory, and solve a national crisis. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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