Friday, December 27, 2024

Musk vs. MAGA

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Dec 27, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Zack Stanton

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

RING OUT THE OLD — POLITICO Magazine on “9 Political Trends That Died in 2024,” including traditional canvassing, the KENNEDY mystique, campaigning on abortion and politics on “SNL.”

RING IN THE NEW — “The 2028 Democratic primary is already underway. But the first real moves are just around the corner,” a roundtable with Christopher Cadelago, Adam Wren, Elena Schneider, Lisa Kashinsky and Holly Otterbein, featuring their insights into 2028 and VP KAMALA HARRIS, Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG, Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO, Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER, California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM, Kentucky Gov. ANDY BESHEAR and Pennsylvania Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN, among others.

RING FAMILIAR — “Brian Schatz to Democrats: Talk Like Normal People,” by Jonathan Martin

Elon Musk is seen with other guests in the House chamber.

Elon Musk’s prominence and influence in Trump world have made him a target from within. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

MUSK VS. MAGA — If the press, to borrow Salena Zito’s memorable turn of phrase, takes President-elect DONALD TRUMP “literally, but not seriously,” and his supporters “take him seriously, but not literally,” this week offered fresh signs that some of his most high-profile supporters from Silicon Valley take him neither seriously nor literally on one of the central issues of his campaign.

A fight over immigration has erupted among Trump’s supporters, revealing hairline fractures in his political coalition that have the potential to rapidly grow into something more untenable.

  • On the one side are the right-wing MAGA faithful, who have been drawn to Trump in no small part because of his hardline stance on immigration.
  • On the other side are Silicon Valley’s latecomers to the MAGA movement, who broadly agree with Trump on cultural and economic issues, but whose businesses depend on attracting the most talented highly skilled workers in the world to America.

During the election, that divide was easy to paper over — negative partisanship, after all, is a helluva drug. But the election is over. And with Trump poised to take office in just over three weeks — and with ELON MUSK, himself an immigrant who is firmly in that latter camp, having emerged as the president-elect’s most prominent and vocal ally — that divide cannot be ignored.

Also guaranteeing that it won’t be ignored: Musk’s frenetic activity on X, where he seems to leap into tempestuous debates without consideration of the political ramifications.

The brawl built to a boil this week, as Brendan Bordelon reports: “The president-elect’s Sunday naming of SRIRAM KRISHNAN, a former partner at venture capitalist firm Andreessen Horowitz, to serve as his artificial intelligence adviser caused panic among Trump’s base, with many fretting over his recent advocacy for removing country caps on green cards for high-skilled workers.”

Musk and other members of the Silicon Valley elite, in turn defended Krishnan and mounted a vigorous defense of foreign labor, at least its tippy-top echelon: “It comes down to this: do you want America to WIN or do you want America to LOSE,” Musk posted on Christmas. “If you force the world’s best talent to play for the other side, America will LOSE. End of story.”

 

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Musk’s argument did not exactly win over MAGA.

  • ANN COULTER: “American workers can leave a company. Imported H1B [visa] workers can't. Tech wants indentured servants, not ‘high-skilled’ workers.”
  • MIKE CERNOVICH: “This is why some find this discussion frustrating. Elon is right about the problem. Others are right that the solution is flawed. … BIG TECH did this. Now they want more H-1B’s for their self-inflicted wound.”
  • LAURA LOOMER: “Allowing big tech executives into Mar a Lago is going to be the death of our country. Isn’t it? … We have to re-evaluate some of these nominations.”

Yesterday afternoon, Musk sought to refocus the debate. “I am referring to bringing in via legal immigration the top ~0.1% of engineering talent as being essential for America to keep winning,” he wrote on X, likening it to an NBA team bringing on a uniquely talented foreign-born athlete, like NIKOLA JOKIĆ.

Joining Musk in pushing back? His DOGE partner, VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who blamed an “American culture [that] has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long.”

“A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers,” he wrote in a long missive. “A culture that venerates CORY from ‘Boy Meets World,’ or ZACH & SLATER over SCREECH in ‘Saved by the Bell,’ or ‘STEFAN’ over STEVE URKEL in ‘Family Matters,’ will not produce the best engineers. … More movies like Whiplash, fewer reruns of ‘Friends.’”

Setting aside the outdated TGIF references and bizarre interpretation of “Whiplash,” this explanation didn’t play well with some in the MAGA camp: “Underlying your post is that we were all living in squalor until being rescued by H-1B’s,” Cernovich replied. “Then why did everyone want to come here?”

It would be tempting here to say that the whole episode shines a spotlight on the tightrope walk ahead of Trump. There’s something to that, but here’s what we’re wondering this morning: Who should be more worried about this: Trump or Musk?

Musk’s prominence and influence in Trump world have made him a target from within. He inspires nothing of the sort of loyalty from MAGA voters that Trump enjoys, and it’s not hard to imagine the tide turning against him, especially as he so eagerly walks into political trip wires.

One final example of that from last night was his response to a popular conservative pro-Musk account on X.

“So basically the right split into two factions, tech right and right right,” Autism Capital wrote. “[A]nd the tech right is like ‘hey we need h-1b visa people to do the jobs,’ and the right right was like ‘no you need to hire americans,’ and the tech right is like ‘but you guys are [an offensive term for people with developmental disabilities],’ and the right right is like ‘well you don’t train us,’ and the tech right is like ‘you can’t outtrain being [offensive term],’ and while all this was going on we learned some people *really* don’t like Indians.”

“That pretty much sums it up,” Musk replied. “This was eye-opening.”

Just how should MAGA voters interpret Musk: seriously, or literally?

Related reads: “Mapping Trump's connections to tech's right-wing brotherhood,” by NBC’s David Ingram … “A MAGA ‘Civil War’ on X between Musk and the far right over H-1B visas,” by WaPo’s Pranshu Verma and Cat Zakrzewski

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop me a line at zstanton@politico.com.

WHAT THEY’RE READING IN 211 HART — WILLIAM WEBSTER, the only man to ever head both the FBI and CIA, sent senators a letter yesterday in which he argued that Trump’s picks for two top intelligence jobs — TULSI GABBARD for DNI and KASH PATEL for FBI director — do not have what it takes meet the demands of those roles. More from Kierra Frazier

WHAT THEY’RE READING IN FOGGY BOTTOM — Nahal Toosi’s latest from Doha: “Trump World Has Trust Issues With Qatar”

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

President JOE BIDEN has nothing on his public schedule.

Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will travel to LA.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

A Ukrainian serviceman of the 57th Mechanised Brigade fire 120mm mortar towards Russian positions near Kharkiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, Dec. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)

For some Ukrainian troops, exhaustion is making a cease-fire look more appealing. | Andrii Marienko/AP Photo

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. UKRAINE/RUSSIA TEA LEAVES: With Ukrainian morale at a low point on the battlefield, some exhausted troops would welcome a cease-fire deal with Russia if Trump can push Moscow into negotiating, but they’re dubious it’ll happen, WaPo’s Isabelle Khurshudyan and Serhii Korolchuk report from the Dnipropetrovsk region. Already, Ukraine’s much-debated use of American long-range missiles to strike within Russia has begun to quiet down, NYT’s Kim Barker, Lara Jakes, Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper and Julian Barnes report.

And yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister SERGEI LAVROV said his country is open to serious proposals for talks, but an immediate cease-fire, as Trump has called for, is “a road to nowhere,” per Bloomberg’s Henry Meyer.

Watch this space: A U.S. official tells CNN’s Catherine Nicholls, Aruzhan Zeinulla, Hassan Tayir and Oren Liebermann that the tragic plane crash in Kazakhstan may have been due to a misbegotten Russian attack. At least 38 people were killed. The Kremlin said nobody should be speculating about that yet, per NBC’s Hannah Peart.

2. IMMIGRATION FILES: Incoming “border czar” TOM HOMAN says family detention may be coming back, four years after Biden ended it, in new interviews with WaPo’s Nick Miroff and NBC’s Sam Brock and Phil Helsel. As he plans for mass deportations, Homan says the Trump administration will throw out undocumented parents even if their young kids were born here. “You knew you were in the country illegally and chose to have a child,” he tells the Post. “So you put your family in that position.” But he adds to NBC that he doesn’t “at all” foresee large-scale family separations. Homan says officials will also work to locate hundreds of thousands of migrant kids who have lost touch with the government.

3. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: “The US says it pushed retraction of a famine warning for north Gaza. Aid groups express concern,” by AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer: “A lead organization monitoring for food crises around the world withdrew a new report this week warning of imminent famine in north Gaza under what it called Israel’s ‘near-total blockade,’ after the U.S. asked for its retraction … The rare public challenge from the Biden administration of the work of the U.S.-funded Famine Early Warning System, which is meant to reflect the data-driven analysis of unbiased experts, drew accusations from aid and human-rights figures of possible U.S. political interference.”

4. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: One of the foreign-policy stories of the Biden administration is repeatedly standing firm with U.S. allies that in turn undermined the U.S., weakening democracy or human rights efforts, NYT’s Edward Wong writes. From Afghanistan to Israel to the U.A.E. to South Korea, “Biden and his aides were caught by surprise and then stayed quiet when those leaders failed in their roles or rejected policy suggestions and diplomatic efforts by the Americans.” Though Trump says he’ll return the U.S. to a more powerful position in the world, the reality is that many countries — exemplified by Israel — listen to Washington less than they used to.

5. WHAT BRAD WENSTRUP IS READING: “Behind Closed Doors: The Spy-World Scientists Who Argued Covid Was a Lab Leak,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon and Warren Strobel: “[D]isagreements among intelligence experts over what should be included in the [2021 report to Biden] ran deeper than is publicly known. Nor were the FBI scientists the only ones who believed that the intelligence directorate’s review didn’t tell the whole story. … The [Defense Intelligence Agency] Inspector General’s office opened an inquiry in the spring into whether the scientists’ assessment was mishandled or suppressed.”

 

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6. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: “New 2025 laws hit hot topics from AI in movies to rapid-fire guns,” by AP’s David Lieb: “California … is seeking to rein in the artificial intelligence industry and put some parameters around social media stars. … New social media restrictions in several states face court challenges. … California will start enforcing a law prohibiting school districts from adopting policies that require staff to notify parents if their children change their gender identification. … Minimum wage workers in more than 20 states are due to receive raises in January. … An Oklahoma law expands voting privileges to people who have been convicted of felonies but had their sentences discharged or commuted.”

7. LOAN LURCH: “Elderly student loan borrowers owe $121 billion. They ask Biden for relief,” by WaPo’s Danielle Douglas-Gabriel: “In the waning days of the Biden administration, activists are urging the Education Department to discharge the student debt of older borrowers who they say are in no position to repay. They say the department could use a little-known federal statute that considers a person’s ability to pay within a reasonable time and the inability of the government to collect the debt in full. … There are 2.8 million federal student loan borrowers aged 62 and older with a total of $121.5 billion in debt, more than 726,300 of them over the age of 71, according to the Education Department.”

8. SOUTH OF THE BORDER: “Mexico Worries Trump Will Order Strikes Against Drug Cartels,” by WSJ’s José de Córdoba: Mexican President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM “has rushed to show her administration isn’t soft on drugs and migrants. Her government has gone after fentanyl smugglers in Mexico’s powerful Sinaloa cartel, seizing 1.3 tons of the drug in a record bust. She has sent her security minister to Sinaloa to oversee the efforts to take back control of a state where organized crime dominates the political establishment and two factions are in a turf war. Mexico is in talks to set up a unit of elite security officers who would be vetted and trained by U.S. law-enforcement officials for operations against criminals in Mexico.”

9. PAGING LEE ZELDIN: “The E.P.A. Promotes Toxic Fertilizer. 3M Told It of Risks Years Ago,” by NYT’s Hiroko Tabuchi: “3M didn’t publish the research, but the company did share its findings with the E.P.A. at a 2003 meeting … Today, the E.P.A. continues to promote sewage sludge as fertilizer and doesn’t require testing for PFAS, despite the fact that whistle-blowers, academics, state officials and the agency’s internal studies over the years have also raised contamination concerns. … The country is starting to wake up to the consequences.”

SUNDAY SO FAR …

CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Panel: Bakari Sellers, Scott Jennings, Karen Finney and Kristen Soltis Anderson.

ABC “This Week”: Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) … Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). Panel: Donna Brazile, Rick Klein, Rachael Bade and Sarah Isgur.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Panel: Cal Thomas, Francesca Chambers, Stef Kight and Philippe Reines. Sunday special: Hanukkah at the Museum of the Bible.

MSNBC “The Weekend”: David Hogg … North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs.

CBS “Face the Nation”: David Rubenstein … Leana Wen.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Sean Hannity and Ainsley Earhardt got engaged.

Marianne Williamson wants to run for DNC chair.

Andy Harris and Scott Perry aren’t yet sure about another Mike Johnson term as speaker.

Jim Justice will delay his Senate swearing-in to complete his term as governor.

Roy Cooper was cagey about his 2026 and 2028 plans.

IN MEMORIAM — “Manmohan Singh, Indian Premier Who Spurred Economic Boom, Dies at 92,” by Alan Cowell: “With his trademark powder-blue turban, Mr. Singh was the first Indian prime minister from the country’s small Sikh minority, which is concentrated in the northern state of Punjab. … Mr. Singh … oversaw changes that set his vast, turbulent nation of more than 1.1 billion people on a path toward becoming a regional economic dynamo. The changes fueled a huge expansion in white-collar prosperity in a country that nonetheless continued to struggle with extreme poverty.”

WEDDING — Beth Solomon, an author and a Sam Nunn and Care alum, and Gero Geilenbruegge, a realtor and tax attorney, got married yesterday on the beach in Naples, Florida, where they had their first date. Mayor Teresa Heitmann officiated. The couple met on a tennis court in Naples. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NBC’s Savannah GuthrieMercedes SchlappEmily MurphyKurt Volker Andi Lipstein FristedtJacqueline Policastro Andi PringleEmily Hytha of Rep. Michelle Fischbach’s (R-Minn.) office … Kamau Marshall … CNN’s Tierney SneedJoe HarrisJosh LittenBenji Backer Hemanshu Nigam … former Reps. Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa), Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.) and Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) … Karen Hughes Brennan BilberryEric Dunay of Rep. Sharice Davids’ (D-Kan.) office … Jessica McCreight Arthur Kent … POLITICO’s Nick Vinocur Laura Lott of the National Gallery of Art … Shéhérazade Semsar-de Boisséson Osaremen OkoloTim Ball

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

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