With Daniel Lippman WAITING ON A HOUSE CALL: As President-elect Donald Trump begins filling out his second administration, one of the biggest question marks for lobbyists right now is whether Republicans will snag a governing trifecta in the new year, which could make or break many of the business community’s top policy priorities. — A Democratic-controlled House — even by a one- or two-seat margin — would trip up efforts to renew prized tax breaks set to expire in 2025, potentially even forcing lawmakers to punt the issue into 2026 with a short-term extension. — If Democrats manage to flip the House, the Trump administration and Hill Republicans are “going to have to compromise on these tax cuts,” and “whether they can reach a compromise in agreement, I think, is an outstanding question,” said Invariant’s Amy Swonger, who led Trump’s legislative affairs office during his first term, in a webinar. “One possibility is they aren't able to,” she warned. — Tax lobbyists at Squire Patton Boggs went so far as to call a short-term extension of expiring tax cuts the “most likely” scenario in a divided government in a post-election analysis sent to clients today, while the National Restaurant Association cautioned in a memo to its members earlier this week that any tax deal is sure to be narrower and will take longer, should Democrats eke out the House majority. — That would be a drastic shift from the conventional wisdom on timing if Republicans were to maintain control of the House, as they appear poised to do. In that case, “the expectation all over Washington is that reconciliation will occur very early in the year,” K&L Gates’ Ryan Carney said in a webinar today. “This will be something [that occurs] in the first three months,” he predicted. — A tax package isn’t all that hinges on how the last House races turn out. Those calls will also affect how active the lame duck will be, with lobbyists waiting to see whether Trump directs Speaker Mike Johnson to clear out the legislative docket before the end of the year. — One camp on K Street thinks it’s possible Trump will want to take a bite at the apple, especially on a spending bill. “It does seem like it's going to be a lamer than usual” lame duck, Swonger said, while Carney argued that “there's less incentive to compromise for a full-year” funding deal if Republicans keep the House. — Others, though, are hoping Trump will want to start with a clean slate in January, rather than having the first 100 days of his administration bogged down by fights over government spending, the farm bill, defense policy, disaster relief and a smattering of other policy issues like PBM reforms — especially if Democrats stand to gain seats in the House. — “In 2016, Republicans and the new administration learned a hard lesson — postponing appropriations on the promise of getting a better deal in the new Congress is a myth,” former House appropriator Jack Kingston argued in Squire Patton Boggs’ analysis. “I hope Congress will make quick work” of a spending bill when they return to town next week. TGIF and welcome to PI. Congrats on making it through this marathon of a week. What are you telling clients about the incoming Trump administration? Who are the under-the-radar Trump advisers PI should know about? My inbox is open: coprysko@politico.com. And be sure to follow me on X: @caitlinoprysko. WALL STREET <3 TRUMP: “A veritable clubhouse of Wall Street executives — even those who eschewed Trump in the past — are jockeying for influence and eagerly gearing up for the prospect of lower taxes and a dealmaking revival,” The Wall Street Journal’s Alexander Saeedy, AnnaMaria Andriotis, Lauren Thomas and Miriam Gottfried write. — Industry players have been flocking to Trump allies like former economic adviser Gary Cohn and Cantor Fitzgerald’s Howard Lutnick , who is in charge of personnel for Trump’s transition team, to seek intel or offer input. — Those working on mergers and acquisitions have also been elated, while bankers are coming around to the threat of tariffs as a small price to pay for a lower corporate tax rate. One administration alum “said far more business leaders are raising their hands for deputy and assistant secretary roles than in 2016” while others on Wall Street, even those who previously had kept their distance from Trump, “are opening their wallets, offering to help pay for the coming inauguration.” WHAT THE RESTAURANT LOBBY WANTS: The election results represent a mixed bag for the restaurant industry, with restaurants’ main trade group excited about the prospect of Trump rolling back key regulations put in place by the Biden administration as well as what unified GOP control could mean for a tax package, but concerned about Trump’s trade and immigration agenda and the prospects for swipe fee reforms. — The National Restaurant Association is assessing what Trump’s immigrant deportation pledge would mean for the agriculture supply chain for restaurants and will urge the administration to go easy on immigrants “who contribute to the economy,” like those in the hospitality sector, according to its memo sent to members this week. — The association said it also plans to press Trump to “take a balanced look at tariffs” and to repeal contentious Biden rules on overtime pay, heat protections for workers and climate reporting. — The trade group laid out some of its top priorities for next year’s tax fight — which includes making good on Trump’s promise to exempt tipped income from taxes. In addition to warning of a smaller package under a divided Congress, the association flagged another potential hiccup for a tax bill — the “rise of ‘populist’ Republicans in both chambers, whose vote on traditional business issues may be less reliable than others.” — And the group all but admitted defeat on the push for swipe fee legislation, noting that “the movement takes a step back with Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin (D-IL) losing his gavel and his perch to lead on this issue,” and Wall Street ally Tim Scott (R-S.C.) poised to become chair of the Senate Banking Committee. LAYOFFS AT OPENSECRETS: OpenSecrets, the nonpartisan money-in-politics research nonprofit, laid off 10 employees yesterday due to financial difficulties, Daniel reports. Much of the research team was among the casualties, which constituted around a third of the group’s total headcount, according to a current employee. — Executive director Hilary Braseth wrote in an email to supporters that “OpenSecrets remains committed to its mission — serving as the trusted authority on money in American politics — but our task has become more difficult as groups have opted to fund a partisan outcome rather than nonpartisan democratic infrastructure.” — She said in a subsequent email to our friends over at Playbook that the layoffs were “a necessary first step to make our organization sustainable,” and that she had “no doubt that our team will continue to produce the high-quality data that the public has come to rely on.” A PROMOTION FOR WILES’ DAUGHTER: Continental Strategy, the Florida-based government affairs shop started by former Florida lawmaker and Trump administration diplomat Carlos Trujillo, announced a new promotion today for Katie Wiles, the daughter of newly named White House chief of staff Susie Wiles. — Katie Wiles will serve as a director in the firm’s Jacksonville and Washington offices, per Florida Politics’ Peter Schorsch . As part of her expanded role, Wiles, a former spokesperson for ex-Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, will tack on lobbying and business development to her communications firm in Continental’s Florida and D.C. offices. The firm’s federal lobbying clients include Miami-Dade County, the University of North Florida and several Argentine utility and mining companies. — “We know she will shine in this new role and will provide new avenues for growth as we continue to build from the momentum of a landslide victory for President Donald Trump on Election Day,” Trujillo told Schorsch.
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