Friday, November 8, 2024

The House GOP’s margin call

An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead
Nov 08, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

Mike Lawler speaks with reporters.

One key House lawmaker from a purple district is already recognizing the power he and others like him will have. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THEY’RE ALL JOE MANCHIN NOW

House Republicans appear likely to keep their majority — and with it, full GOP control of Congress and the White House come January.

As you read this, there are still 25 outstanding House races where party control is on the line, with 11 of them in California. Democrats need to win 19 of those races to flip the House. Republicans only need seven. (More on the state of play below.)

But this much is clear: If Republicans keep their majority, it’ll continue to be a slim one.

“We're probably going to be in the 221 to 223 range,” Majority Leader Steve Scalise reckoned Friday in a Fox News interview — aka a four- to six-seat majority. (The GOP currently holds 220 seats, not counting one previously-red vacant seat.)

Small issues, big impact: The likely miniscule margin is going to empower any small bloc of House lawmakers to shape policy this Congress. And one key House lawmaker from a purple district is already recognizing the power he and others like him will have.

“I think on the big issues, the voters spoke pretty clearly on Tuesday night … about the direction they want us to go,” said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who doesn’t always vote with his party. “Obviously there's going to be negotiation along the way within the conference and within the Congress as a whole, because we will need to work through things. And obviously in tight majorities, you do need to take [specific] members into account.”

It’s on some of the more parochial issues where members like Lawler are especially likely to flex their muscle. In other words, don’t expect many Republicans, if any, to object to pursuing a big tax bill. But you can guarantee they’ll have plenty of opinions about what it should look like.

Without being prompted by a reporter, Lawler brought up the fate of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction: an income tax break that was significantly curtailed as part of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Lawler and other members from New York and other relatively high-tax states want to see it restored as much as possible.

Lawler stopped short of delivering an ultimatum but said he would keep a close eye as a bill is drafted next year.

"There will be an opportunity for someone like me and some of my other colleagues who are in these swing districts to have a big seat at the table when it comes to crafting legislation and getting it passed," he said.

But, but, but: The areas where the House GOP holdouts can make their mark could be relatively limited. Barring a massive reversal among Senate Republicans, who have generally defended the filibuster, any legislation passed into law along party lines is still going to be subject to the chamber’s 60-vote rule.

The exception, of course, is so-called “reconciliation” bills, which generally speaking can deal only with budgetary matters. So while Lawler & Co. can throw their weight around on taxes, other issues — like border security — will still have to be negotiated with Democrats.

Speaking of Democrats: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a Thursday evening interview with NY1 that “still have a clear pathway to taking back the majority,” while saying they would control no fewer than 212 seats (which would align with Scalise’s prediction).

Even in that worst-case scenario for Democrats, they could expect to exert a lot of leverage on must-pass bills — including federal spending — given the Senate’s filibuster backstop and House Republicans’ scant recent history of exhibiting party unity on those votes.

— Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu

 

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GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Nov. 8, where we hope you’re ready for the lame duck!

TRUMP DREAMS MEET POLITICAL REALITY

The House is full of Republicans who are eager to leap to a higher position in the second Trump administration, with a series of names already floating around as possible Cabinet secretaries or agency heads. But a razor-thin majority in the lower chamber could dash those hopes.

Unlike Senate vacancies, which state governors can temporarily fill, House vacancies can be filled only through special elections, which can take many months to pull off. So plucking any House member for the Trump administration would mean cutting the GOP margin even further, a massive risk as the party seeks to push through its agenda.

Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told us recently that Republican leadership is well aware of the situation — and so is the Trump camp: “They're going to be aware of our numbers, just like we are, because they want to make sure we have a House majority all the way through,” he said.

The shortlist: A handful of current House Republicans have already been mentioned (or have mentioned themselves) for potential administration jobs:

— Olivia Beavers

KEY HOUSE RACE UPDATE

As we head into the weekend, here’s where things stand in a few notable outstanding races:

  • Alaska: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaskan Native woman to represent the state in Congress, is currently behind Republican rival Nick Begich by about 4 points. Begich is under 50 percent, however, meaning the race could still go to ranked-choice tabulation (i.e., it’s gonna be a while). 
  • Arizona: Republicans David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani are locked in close races in the 1st and 6th Districts, respectively, against Democratic challengers. 
  • California: The 9th, 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th Congressional District races have not been called — and it could be many days yet as mail ballots continue trickling it. Democrats are counting on flipping at least some of the GOP seats to win back the majority.
  • Colorado: Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo is about a half-point ahead of Republican Gabe Evans in the 8th District.
  • Maine: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden has declared victory in his race against Republican Austin Theriault. But an official call might be a ways off: The race is headed for a ranked-choice tabulation, and Theriault has already requested a recount. 
  • Oregon: Democrat Janelle Bynum declared victory Friday over Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the 5th District, though the race has not yet been called by the AP. If Bynum prevails, it will be Democrats’ first flip west of New York.

— Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu

HUDDLE HOTDISH

If anyone wants to tell us what’s in the Senate orientation book, let us know.

Thank you, George Helmy, for handling those pro forma sessions.

Ro Khanna 2028?

QUICK LINKS 

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries talks about potential future of the House, from Deanna Garcia at NY1

Ohio Gov. DeWine won’t name names, but preparing to fill U.S. Senate vacancy, from Nick Evans at Ohio Capital Journal

A Red-District Conqueror Wants Fellow Democrats to Look in the Mirror, from Annie Karni at the New York Times

Pelosi Laments Biden’s Late Exit and the Lack of an ‘Open Primary,’ from Reid Epstein at the New York Times

TRANSITIONS 

Send them over to insidecongress@politico.com!

MONDAY IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

MONDAY AROUND THE HILL

It’s Veterans Day … and the last day before the lame duck.

TRIVIA

THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Andrew Ryan was the first to correctly guess that Richard Nixon was the president who proclaimed an emergency to impose a 10 percent surcharge on all imports to the U.S.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Andrew: It was at this senator's home in late 2020 that the stimulus bill was said to have been decided over a pasta dinner — and that senator’s family also happens to own their own pasta company. Who is the senator?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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