As Trump rises, global climate action falters

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Nov 08, 2024 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell Last year, more than 200 scientists declared that numerous “earth systems” literally keeping the world’s climate in check were nearing a point of no return. | David McNew/Getty Images When Donald Trump won the 2016 election and threatened to undermine global climate efforts, world leaders united to mitigate the blow. This time around, they are divided and distracted, writes Karl Mathiesen. Wars and trade disputes have tanked international cooperation. Economic decline, populism and what French President Emmanuel Macron warns could be the death of the European Union have pushed climate change down, or even off, the global agenda. For evidence, look no further than the shrunken COP29 guest list. President Joe Biden is skipping the climate conference, which is slated to begin Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan. Macron is out. The European Union’s top executive, Ursula von der Leyen, has a conflict. Germany’s Olaf Scholz registered, but his government collapsed a day after Trump’s election. Trump won’t be there either, given his plans to set up a new government in Washington. It’s a critical time for government action to thwart the worst of climate change. Leaders have until February to deliver new national climate targets under the Paris Agreement. These blueprints will determine what planet-warming emissions are pumped into the atmosphere until 2035, at which point only 15 years will remain to go carbon-neutral — the target set by most advanced economies. And the world has a long way to go. Despite record clean energy growth, fossil fuels still make up 80 percent of the world’s energy supply. Governments continued to subsidize them to the tune of $620 billion in 2023. And investors are estimated to spend $1.1 trillion on fossil fuel production in 2024 — a figure that continues to rise post-pandemic lock-down. A more optimistic framing — one climate diplomats, Biden administration officials and environmentalists are fond of — is that the clean energy ship has sailed, and governments, while potentially helpful, are not essential. “No matter what Trump says, no matter what, the shift to clean energy is unstoppable in the United States,” Gina McCarthy, who served as Biden’s national climate adviser, told reporters on Thursday. While that may be true to some extent, governments certainly retain immense power. It was, after all, Biden’s $1.6 trillion investment in a green economy that gave the nation a fighting chance of meeting its climate goals. Trump has pledged to claw back as much of that money as he can.   Thank goodness it's Friday  — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and  POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net. Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Federica Di Sario and Steven Overly introduce listeners to the Atomic Advocate, a social media influencer spurring a new generation of nuclear power advocates in Italy. Power Centers A trailer with a sign supporting President-elect Donald Trump stands adjacent to the Smoky Hills wind farm on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024, near Ellsworth, Kansas. | Charlie Riedel/AP Trump’s love affair with fossil fuels Come January, Trump will begin rolling back pollution regulations, unleashing fossil fuel development and withdrawing from international climate efforts. That will likely mean the country falls further behind its goal of cutting emissions to 50 percent of 2005 levels by the end of the decade, writes Benjamin Storrow. That goal "was going to be a challenge under a Harris administration,” said Dan Klein, an emissions analyst at S&P Commodities Insights. “So it’s going to be even more challenging if it is relying on consumer behavior, state-level decisions and corporates to get the job done.” Names in the mix for Trump energy, environment gigs Trump’s allies have been compiling résumés and vetting candidates behind the scenes for months. And now that Trump has won the White House, he’ll soon be in a position to appoint thousands of political appointees. Robin Bravender, Marc Heller and Kevin Bogardus take a look at the names being floated for top energy and environment jobs. EU ponders ways to avoid Trump tariffs Von der Leyen has suggested that one way to deter Trump from imposing new tariffs is for Europe to buy more liquefied natural gas from the U.S., write Barbara Moens, Gabriel Gavin and Clea Caulcutt. Trump has promised to boost domestic industry by imposing across-the-board duties of up to 20 percent on imported goods. Brussels has been revving up to strike back fast and hard against any Trump tariffs to bring the Republican back to the negotiating table. In Other News Secret recording: COP29 chief exec filmed promoting fossil fuel deals. Billionaire banter: Will Elon Musk, who believes in global warming, influence Trump on climate change and electric vehicles? Hot autumn: Why is it warm in November? How climate change has heated up your fall. Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Supreme Court Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. | Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images Trump may have the chance to do something that no president has done since Dwight Eisenhower: hand-pick two more (five total) of the Supreme Court’s nine justices. Advisers close to Trump have been in discussions with House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) on a broad tax package that would be partially paid for by tariffs approved by Congress. Unlike in 2017 , when Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement, he could move faster and potentially with less restraint now. That's it for today, folks. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend!   Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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