A sneak peek on Trump’s Iran policy

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Nov 08, 2024 View in browser   By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil Four former officials and campaign insiders shared early insights into what Donald Trump’s Middle East policy will likely be against the backdrop of a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and escalating fighting between Israel and Iranian proxy militant groups. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP With help from Phelim Kine, Jack Detsch, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Maximum pressure is back on the menu. And allies of DONALD TRUMP say it’ll meet the radically different geopolitical landscape in the Middle East right now. The moniker that defined Trump’s hardline approach to Iran in his first term offers a pretty straightforward preview of what’s to come for America’s rivals in Tehran when the former president takes office again, according to interviews with four former Trump officials and campaign insiders. “Tightening the economic noose around Iran is going to be a day one foreign policy priority to start cleaning up Biden’s Middle East mess,” said one former Trump official. The individual, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss internal transition matters. The Trump transition team is keeping its cards close, offering NatSec Daily a boilerplate statement they also offered our colleagues earlier today that Trump will take “necessary action” to “lead our country” and “restore peace through strength.” But these four former officials and campaign insiders shared early insights into what Trump’s Middle East policy will likely be against the backdrop of a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and escalating fighting between Israel and Iranian proxy militant groups. The former officials said the Trump transition team is already talking through plans to unleash a new wave of harsh economic sanctions on Iran and work to cut off its oil exports all while beefing up support for Israel. They said Trump would revamp his so-called maximum pressure strategy of working to isolate Iran, ramp up economic pressure and maintain a credible threat of military force as a deterrent. But the Middle East in 2024 is drastically different from the one Trump knew when he left office in 2021 — and that changes the variables when considering if similar strategies will work to weaken Iran this time. “Maximum pressure 2.0 does not mean that things will pick up where they left off on Jan. 20, 2020. The region and the world looks a lot different,” said another former Trump Middle East official. In one sense, Tehran has already been weakened by the Israeli offensives that have crippled Hamas and Hezbollah, two of its top proxy forces. On the other hand, Israel’s military campaign has ignited global condemnation and backlash toward both Israel and the United States over the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the damage Israel’s campaign in Lebanon has wrought to civilian infrastructure in the country. Trump will have to navigate the fallout of both sides of this issue with diminished U.S. diplomatic and geopolitical capital at his disposal. Meanwhile, Tehran is deepening its cooperation with Russia, adding a giant new Ukraine-sized complexity to Trump’s Iran policy. There’s also a risk of further Israel-Iran escalation that could drag the U.S. military into the mix. Biden pushed Israel to not target Iranian nuclear sites in its retaliatory airstrikes last month to prevent tit-for-tat attacks between the two rival powers from escalating — even as it rolled out some 700 sanctions on Iran to keep up economic pressure on the country. Trump likely wouldn’t try to put guardrails on Israel. “That’s the craziest thing I’ve ever heard,” Trump told Fox News last month in response to Biden saying Israel shouldn’t target Iran’s nuclear sites. “That was the craziest answer because, you know what? Soon, they’re going to have nuclear weapons. And then you’re going to have problems.” BRIAN HOOK , who is leading the Trump campaign’s State Department transition team and helped run Trump’s Iran policy in his first term, touted the importance of maintaining a military threat against Iran while stressing that Trump has “no interest in regime change” in Iran in an interview with CNN on Thursday. “If nobody believes you have a credible threat of military force, then you’re going to lose deterrence,” Hook said. A message from Lockheed Martin: Together, We Can Face the Fight Against Veteran Suicide Join Lockheed Martin and Face the Fight in breaking the stigma surrounding veteran suicide. By raising awareness and fostering conversations around support and hope, our heroes never have to face the fight alone. Learn more.   The Inbox RUSSIA ESCALATES ATTACKS: Russia has escalated its drone attacks on civilian and residential buildings in Ukraine, and in one of its latest attacks struck the building in Kyiv where a NATO country ambassador lives. Estonia’s ambassador to Kyiv, ANNELY KOLK, wasn’t harmed in the attack but it underscores the precariousness of Russia’s showdown with NATO over the war in Ukraine. It also spotlights how Moscow is indiscriminately targeting civilians as a deliberate wartime strategy to wear down Ukraine’s will to fight, said KRISTJAN PRIKK, Estonia’s ambassador in Washington. “These attacks are almost designed to be indiscriminate. The kind of message that these attacks are meant to send to people is that no one and nowhere is safe,” he said. EASTERN CONGO PEACE WAVERING: The State Department issued a warning today about violations of a cease-fire between militia groups in eastern Congo — a sign that the simmering conflict might reignite and plunge the long-troubled country back into major active warfare. The Rwandan-backed M23 militia group broke the cease-fire on Oct. 20. The State Department is now calling on the group, which has been fighting and operating in the eastern Kivu provinces since 2012 to “immediately cease hostilities and withdraw from its positions in Walikale territory, North Kivu Province.” On the other side, Washington called on Kinhasa to end its support for the sanctioned Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda militia. The U.S. also urged both Kinhasa and Kigali to recommit to a peace process currently being facilitated by Angola. The breach in the cease-fire in eastern Congo is a major blow for the Biden administration and Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES, who helped broker a truce between Rwanda and Congo in 2023. Eastern Congo has been wracked by instability for decades and rising tensions could lead to full-out war between Congo and Rwanda and force millions from their homes. CHINESE INVASION? DIAL 118: Taiwan’s Coast Guard is taking a “whole of society” approach to detecting any incoming Chinese invasion, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. The agency today unveiled a new pitch for the island’s citizens: Report a “suspicious marine target…[and] win a generous bonus!” It also created a new Coast Guard tip line aimed to be a citizens’ early warning system for Chinese vessels that enter Taiwan’s waters. The new system comes as China ratchets up military exercises in the Taiwan Straits in recent weeks and threatens forceful reunification of the self-governing island with the mainland. “To eliminate all kinds of gray zone attacks, the Coast Guard calls on the people of Taiwan to raise their awareness…and to call the ‘118’ line to notify the Coast Guard when they find any suspicious situations,” the administration said in a statement on its website Friday. Rewards range from $93 for reporting a Chinese vessel under 20 tons and more than $6,000 for dropping a dime on more threatening incursions. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring TOMOAKI ISHIGAKI, the Japanese embassy in Washington’s Congressional minister, who is concluding his diplomatic tour in the United States this month. “As a Japanese diplomat I of course will mention how much I love a good sake or Japanese Suntory whisky,” he says laughing. Ishigaki also has a soft spot for Irish whiskey, going back to his days as a college student, when he visited Ireland and toured an Irish whiskey factory. “I have fond memories of trying this for the first time and still enjoy it,” he said. Of course, it would be undiplomatic for a diplomat to say which country’s whiskey they like better. We will venture a guess to say Japan’s. But regardless, cheers to that! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1     Transition 2024 ORTAGUS’ NEXT MOVE? Add former State Department spokesperson MORGAN ORTAGUS to the list of candidates for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, four people familiar with the deliberations told Eric, Robbie and our own PAUL McLEARY and JACK DETSCH. Ortagus isn’t the only name being floated — Robbie and our own NICK REISMAN and MERIDITH McGRAW reported last night that House Republican Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK of New York is also in serious consideration for the top diplomatic role. But Ortagus is seen as a strong contender given her close ties to the president-elect’s children, including the ever-influential DONALD TRUMP Jr., and her credibility with Republicans on Capitol Hill. Ortagus declined to comment. Unsurprisingly, the Trump team is keeping its cards close to its chest and declined to comment specifically on Ortagus. FOR AWARENESS: Former national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN has reportedly told clients he’s not returning to the White House in the next Trump administration, per the Financial Times’ DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO. Keystrokes MUSK’S IN THE ROOM: Tech mogul ELON MUSK is primed to play a very prominent role in the Trump administration’s foreign policy craft. As our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports, the tech executive joined Trump’s call with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on Thursday. Musk’s appearance on the 25-minute call was not prescheduled. And Musk did more than just listen in — he and Zelenskyy also spoke directly during the phone conversation between the three men. Ukrainians tried to downplay the development. “Yes, at some point Trump passed the phone to Musk. No, nothing unusual, they had a normal conversation,” a Ukrainian official close to Zelenskyy said. “President [Zelenskyy] just thanked Musk for Starlinks,” he added, referring to Musk’s satellite internet system. But the appearance on the call is a striking sign of Musk’s ambitions to closely advise the president-elect and wield influence over the administration’s foreign policy. The Complex LAWFARE FOR NATO: There might be a loophole to a law designed to keep Trump from unilaterally withdrawing the U.S. from NATO, our own JOE GOULD, Jack and CONNOR O’BRIEN report. Last year’s NDAA included a bill introduced by TIM KAINE (D-Va.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) that would require that any presidential decision to exit NATO to have either two-thirds Senate approval or be authorized through an act of Congress became law. It was seen as a guaranteeing that Trump wouldn’t be able to exit the transatlantic alliance. But legal experts warn that Trump could cite presidential authority over foreign policy — an approach he used before to bypass congressional restrictions on treaty withdrawal — to sidestep Congress’s NATO protections. CURTIS BRADLEY , a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, added that if Trump simply declared he was pulling out of the alliance, it’s unclear whether Congress would have the legal standing to sue him for ignoring the law. The Supreme Court has typically ruled that inter-institutional battles are political questions best left outside the purview of the courts. A message from Lockheed Martin: Together, We Can Face the Fight Against Veteran Suicide Join Lockheed Martin and Face the Fight in breaking the stigma surrounding veteran suicide. By raising awareness and fostering conversations around support and hope, our heroes never have to face the fight alone. Learn more.   Broadsides MANILA’S MARITIME LAWFARE: The government of Philippines President FERDINAND MARCOS Jr. is deploying a legal barrier to try to deter increasingly aggressive Chinese incursions into Manila’s waters of the South China Sea, Phelim also writes in. Marcos approved two new laws today that reaffirm Philippine sovereignty in that region and Manila’s right to its natural resources, per the Philippine Inquirer. The passage of the Philippine Maritime Zones Act axnd Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act reflects Manila’s ongoing efforts to address public anger over China Coast Guard and Chinese fishing vessel activities in those waters. Beijing is threatening unspecified “measures” in response. "This move severely violates China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea. We strongly condemn and firmly oppose it,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING said Friday. Transitions — JONATHAN POWELL will become the next national security adviser to U.K. Prime Minister KEIR STARMER, the Financial Times reports. Powell is a veteran diplomat who served as chief of staff to former UK Prime Minister TONY BLAIR. — Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has named YECHIEL LEITER as Israel’s next ambassador to the United States. — TIMOTHY CURRY, the former deputy director of counterterrorism policy at DHS in the Trump administration, has been promoted to be the president of Stryk Global Diplomacy. What to Read — DANIEL DePETRIS, MSNBC: Trump’s win means Benjamin Netanyahu has a freer hand to do what he wants — LUIS SIMÓN and LOTJE BOSWINKEL, War on the Rocks: Ukraine, Europe, and the art of the deal Monday Today — It’s shaping up to be a quiet Monday beyond Veterans Day observances. Happy Veterans’ Day to all our readers who have served, and we thank you for your service. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who should be subjected to maximum pressure over her editorial brinkmanship. Thanks to our producers, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing and Raymond Rapada, who would be great enforcers of harsh international sanctions against Heidi.   Follow us on Twitter Robbie Gramer @RobbieGramer Eric Bazail-Eimil @ebazaileimil   Follow us

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