Thursday, November 7, 2024

Now what?

Presented by Uber: Inside the Golden State political arena
Nov 07, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner

Presented by 

Uber

Donald Trump at an election night watch party.

Donald Trump will be the next president, but what that means for California is still coming into focus. | Alex Brandon/AP

THE BUZZ: ONWARD — The big race has been called, but still many questions abound — especially for California.

We know Democratic leaders in the Golden State are aiming to be the tip of the spear of the Trump resistance, with Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta already vowing to continue Kamala Harris’ fight. Some lawmakers are even contemplating coming back for a special session to “Trump-proof” the state’s climate, reproductive rights and immigration policies.

But how they'll be able to reach those goals, and how harshly Donald Trump could respond, is still very much up in the air. We asked our POLITICO California colleagues what burning questions they’re contemplating as we head into Trump 2.0:

Rachel Bluth, health care reporter — What will this mean for California's ambitious health care moves, especially for abortion? The state has taken on major health care projects in the last few years, from Medicaid reform to opening up abortion access. Many, though not all, require federal approval or funding, and their fate is still uncertain. Key challenges include what happens when that massive Medicaid reform needs to be reauthorized in 2026; whether the state will ever enact long-floated plans for universal coverage if the Trump administration cuts off money to make insurance more affordable; and how California's dozens of new laws to protect abortion could hold up to a hostile administration.

Christopher Cadelago, California bureau chief — Can Gavin Newsom walk and chew gum at the same time? Newsom's governorship, when all is said and done, will overlap with four years of Trump — with a recall and a global pandemic sandwiched in between. How does Newsom lead the Trump resistance while managing his relationship with a president motivated by political vendettas against blue California?

Debra Kahn, California policy editor — Will California's actual moves match its saber-rattling? We're watching to see exactly how vociferous California's resistance will be, especially given Trump's strong margin of victory. Does he have enough of a mandate to make California less adversarial?

Tyler Katzenberger, Playbook contributor — Will Trump’s return push Newsom to support further AI regulations? The president-elect and his party have made no secret of their intent to roll back federal AI rules. California already passed a swath of nation-leading bills to regulate the emerging technology earlier this year, but some dropped short of the finish line — namely state Sen. Scott Wiener’s polarizing proposal for AI safety testing, which Newsom vetoed. Will the governor change his tune if signing further AI regulations could offer the potent political bonus of resisting Trump? Or will he look to placate deep-pocketed tech leaders ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run?

Dustin Gardiner, California Playbook co-author  — Will the national pro-housing movement sputter? One of the most talked-about aspects of Harris’ platform was her plan to confront the national housing shortage by forcing states and local governments to ease barriers to construction. Her embrace of YIMBY, or Yes in My Back Yard, policies could have been a watershed moment for the movement , which was born out of the Bay Area’s housing crisis. But Trump has a starkly different view, accusing Democrats of leading a “war on America’s suburbs” by trying to upzone neighborhoods for single-family homes. Can YIMBY activists maintain their national momentum as Trump returns to the White House? Could they forge alliances with Republicans in Congress, who might have a sympathetic ear to their argument rooted in supply-side economics?

Blake Jones, education and budget reporter — Will Trump punish California with Washington’s purse strings? The former president’s threats to withhold federal funding for disaster relief, education and more may be legally dubious, but any follow-through that survives court scrutiny could put California’s budget in another crunch. State revenue has come in more than $8 billion above projections since April, according to preliminary numbers, but much of that is already promised to other purposes and the state can only afford to backfill so much federal spending.

Emily Schultheis, ballot measure reporter  — How effectively will Democrats use direct democracy in the Trump era? Democratic officials and activists around the country have used ballot measures to codify things like abortion rights and same-sex marriage — including California's Prop 1 in 2022 , to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, and this year's Prop 3 to remove dormant language on same-sex marriage. To what extent will we see the left use ballot initiatives as a tool to continue passing progressive priorities as they're shut out of power in Washington, and where and how will they succeed?

Lindsey Holden, California Playbook PM author — How will Trump’s threats of "mass deportations" impact California’s immigrant workforce? California has the largest estimated undocumented population in the country, including many families with mixed immigration status. In many ways, California's economy runs on undocumented labor, especially the massive agriculture and hospitality industries, raising questions about the impacts on those jobs. Project 2025, which Trump has tried to distance himself from, has also suggested phasing down the federal H-2A guest worker program.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

 

A message from Uber:

Uber Expands Safety Features For Drivers. Uber’s CEO met with drivers and couriers to unveil new updates to make their experience safer and fairer. Among them, Record My Ride lets drivers use their phones as a dashcam on trips. Uber also revamped its deactivation processes, enabling drivers to appeal decisions directly in the app. Learn more.

 
STATE CAPITOL

The California State Capitol is seen at dusk.

The state Capitol building in Sacramento. | Rich Pedroncelli for POLITICO

SUPERMAJORITY WATCH — We’re still waiting on final calls in a number of tight legislative races, but results are showing vulnerable incumbents on both sides of the aisle may make it to January unscathed.

Democratic Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria is leading Republican Joanna Garcia Rose, as of late Wednesday night. As is Democratic member Pilar Schiavo in her contest against Republican Patrick Gipson. 

GOP Assemblymembers Tri Ta and Laurie Davies are also edging ahead in their contests, as is Republican state Sen. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh. 

Looking not-so-lucky is Democratic state Sen. Josh Newman, who is trailing behind Steven Choi, and Republican Assemblymember Greg Wallis, who is narrowly losing to Christy Holstege.

 

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SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco Mayor London Breed speaks during a mayoral debate.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed speaks during a September mayoral debate. | Beth LaBerge/KQED

MATH ISN’T MATHING — Daniel Lurie has a formidable — and potentially insurmountable — lead in the race for San Francisco mayor. But incumbent London Breed is still hanging on in the face of the steep challenge from the Levi’s heir and nonprofit founder. Breed’s team said she was taking Wednesday to process the defeat of her mentor, Harris, and the city isn’t expected to release another batch of votes until this afternoon.

But as Dustin reported , political insiders say the numbers just aren't there for a Breed comeback, especially considering the scale of Lurie’s lead in early returns. As one consultant told Playbook, “The math says this is over.”

 

A message from Uber:

Uber’s Latest Updates Put Drivers First

At an in-person event with drivers, Uber’s CEO announced updates to give them more peace of mind. Uber has started flagging inappropriate rider behavior when drivers report it. The Record My Ride feature allows drivers to capture video and audio during trips, improving accountability and safety. Plus the app also got more hands-free with Siri voice commands, letting drivers focus on the road while staying connected. Learn more.

 
CLIMATE AND ENERGY

THE RESISTANCE RETURNS — California climate leaders have been preparing all year to defend the state’s environmental policies against a second Trump administration but at the moment, they’re a bit stunned. Find out what they're thinking in last night's California Climate.

TOP TALKERS

Joe Rogan is pictured.

Podcaster Joe Rogan. | Gregory Payan/AP

RO’S ROGAN REMORSE — Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna thinks Harris made a mistake by not appearing on Joe Rogan’s podcast before Election Day, POLITICO’s Greta Reich reports . As a reminder, Rogan said last month he declined the Harris campaign’s offer for an interview because he would have had to travel to speak with her.

“We should've done, in my view, Joe Rogan,” Khanna told MSNBC host Jen Psaki yesterday. “Go on all the podcasts and listen to what we need to know and have a compelling economic message.”

SPEAKER SLIGHT — Even Kevin McCarthy is pointing fingers after Harris’ electoral collapse in swing states. The Republican former House Speaker told Fox News yesterday that another former speaker, Nancy Pelosi, deserves the blame for Harris’ loss. He said: “Remember the celebration when she went around democracy and said, 'I don't care if people picked you, I'm going to pick somebody else'?"

GAVIN’S DILEMMA — Harris’ loss opens the door for Newsom to run in 2028, but it also weakens his stock, Alexei Koseff reports for CalMatters , given his image as a culture warrior from California. Democratic consultant Matt Rodriguez put it this way to Koseff: “Being from California is a bit of a millstone around people’s necks and that will make Democrats skittish.”

AROUND THE STATE

Flames consume a home as the Mountain Fire burns in Camarillo, Calif.

Flames consume a home as the Mountain Fire burns in Camarillo on Wednesday. | Noah Berger/AP Photo

— The newly ignited Mountain Fire in Ventura County has burned 10,500 acres, trapped residents, and torched multiple homes so far after igniting amid extreme winds earlier this week. (Los Angeles Times)

— Why some Los Angeles residents are growing fresh veggies in their front lawns instead of grass. (The New York Times)

— San Francisco 49ers star Nick Bosa said wearing a MAGA hat during an NBC postgame interview last month was “well worth” a fine, should he receive one for violating NFL rules that bar making political statements during game broadcasts. (East Bay Times)

PLAYBOOKERS

BIRTHDAYS — consultant Tim Baker … consultant Michael WagamanMichael Kratsios

BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Wednesday): Susan Downey ... Seth A. Radow

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.

 

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Dustin Gardiner @dustingardiner

Lara Korte @lara_korte

 

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