Thursday, November 7, 2024

GOP plotlines to watch post-election

Presented by Uber: Kimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
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POLITICO Florida Playbook Newsletter Header

By Kimberly Leonard

Presented by 

Uber

President-elect Donald Trump greets his campaign manager, Susie Wiles (left), during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Nov. 6, 2024.

President-elect Donald Trump greets his campaign manager, Susie Wiles (left), during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Nov. 6, 2024. | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Good morning and welcome to Thursday.

The 2024 election is in the rearview mirror.

The question now is how Florida reacts to it. Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida Republicans are riding high right now after getting nearly everything they wanted on Tuesday. Next, Florida is poised for some intra-state battles over the future of the state, as well as potential changes in its leadership. It could all have a big impact on the whole nation.

Here’re five storylines we’re watching:

How DeSantis navigates Trumpworld: The governor was first elected in 2018, but he rose to fame as a conservative foe to President Joe Biden, as well as California Gov. Gavin Newsom. With a Republican heading back to the White House, how will DeSantis handle Washington?

Trump and DeSantis were allies during Trump’s first term, until they faced off for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. A bitter period ensued after DeSantis withdrew from the race, but then the two said they reconciled. The governor raised money for Trump's election and kicked off a state investigation into the second assassination attempt against him.

How Trump mines Florida talent to staff his new administration: Trump’s campaign was staffed up and down with Floridians — and plenty of insiders are already expecting his forthcoming administration to be the same.

Even before the election, there was a lot of talk about campaign co-chair Susie Wiles becoming White House chief of staff and Sen. Marco Rubio being considered for secretary of state. One person being lobbied by DeSantis and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) for health and human services secretary is Dr. Joe Ladapo, Florida’s surgeon general.

How the staffing changes alter the 2026 governor’s race: If members of Florida’s House delegation join the ranks of the Trump administration, it could take some people out of the running for the Florida governor’s race who might otherwise consider it.

Should Trump bring in members to his administration, it would fall to DeSantis to set the dates of a special election and the qualifying period, per POLITICO’s Gary Fineout. (DeSantis previously waited about a month to announce a special election race after the Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died.) A complicating factor: If Republicans hold the House — which has yet to be called — how narrow of a majority is it?

How DeSantis positions his Election Day win: DeSantis is heading into his final two years in office after notching major victories by defeating amendments on pot and abortion, which will surely boost his stance in the Republican Party nationally and also among members of the Legislature who had felt his power was waning following a failed presidential campaign.

An early test will likely happen right around the organizational session. DeSantis has proposed a special session — which he said should happen before the end of the year — to deal with safety reforms to condo buildings, but had been met with resistance by legislative leaders.

The extent to which Trump adopts Florida policies: Florida has already implemented some laws that Trump supported during his campaign — including limiting transgender student participation in sports, universal school vouchers and ending diversity, equity and inclusion programs in government institutions.

Republicans often argue that states make ideal policy labs, so Trump may turn to his adopted home state for ideas.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.

 

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CAMPAIGN MODE

An angler catches a fish at the canal in Sebastian Inlet, Florida, on March 29, 2024.

An angler catches a fish at the canal in Sebastian Inlet, Florida, on March 29, 2024. | Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

AMENDMENT 2 — “Hunting activist: Opponents' dire scenarios won't happen with ballot measure passing,” reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie . “A leader behind the successful ballot measure to enshrine hunting and fishing rights in the state Constitution said Wednesday ‘nothing is going to happen’ as a result of their election victory. Mike Elfenbein, executive director of the Cypress Chapter of the Izaak Walton League of America, said the successful ballot measure will not threaten Florida's wildlife protections, as some opponents had claimed during the campaign against it.”

MORE RESULTS ARE IN — Additional legislative races have been called by The Associated Press. Democratic Leonard Spencer, an Amazon executive who used to work at Disney, unseated Republican state Rep. Carolina Amesty in HD-45. Amesty was arrested in August, when she was charged with four counts related to alleged forgery. (She pled not guilty.)

But Democrats were not able to knock off Republican state Rep. Fabián Basabe, a Miami Beach Republican in HD-106, who was sued by former aides who accused him of sexual harassment. Basabe has denied the allegations and a House investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing.

THE VERDICT — “Florida Democrats claimed a ‘resurgence.’ Voters said otherwise,” reports Yacob Reyes of Axios Tampa Bay . “Florida Democrats fielded candidates in all congressional and legislative races on the ballot — a feat that hadn't happened in decades — yet still ended up with fewer seats than last cycle. … National donors have all but deserted the FDP, and Florida's battleground status appears lost for the foreseeable future.”

‘AMERICAN DREAM’ — “Florida completes transformation into ruby red Republican stronghold,” reports The Wall Street Journal’s Joshua Chaffin. “There is no mistaking it. Florida has turned not just red, but ruby red. Once a vital swing state, it is now the spiritual heartland of the MAGA movement—a place that rejected Covid restrictions, that celebrates low taxes and welcomes newcomers fleeing blue bastions like New York. Most notable among the latter are the former president and several of his children.”

NEXT WEEK — “Fresh off reelection win, Scott now aiming to be U.S. Senate's GOP leader in tough race,” reports John Kennedy of USA Today Network- Florida . “Scott is considered a longshot, with Minority Whip John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, and Sen. John Cornyn, a Texas Republican, viewed as front-runners in the race to replace McConnell, the longest-serving party leader in Senate history. … Scott was a relatively early endorser of President-elect Donald Trump in his first run for the White House in 2016. And Scott also was among the cast of allies who showed up in May outside the Manhattan courthouse during Trump’s hush-money trial involving payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. … With Trump headed back to the White House, an endorsement from the president-elect could seal the majority leader post for Scott.”

CULTURAL SHIFT — “‘A hard political pill to swallow’: Dems grapple with losing Latino voters,” by POLITICO’s Megan Messerly, Kimberly Leonard and Daniella Diaz . “Esteban Bovo, the Republican mayor of Hialeah, Florida, said that Latino voters, and voters of color more generally, feel ‘almost talked down to’ by Democrats, who see them as a minority group in need of assistance. Instead, he said, Latinos want the same things all Americans want: ‘education, opportunity, peace and tranquility, safety.’”

POST-ELECTION — “Backers of Florida abortion amendment struggle with failure despite widespread support,” reports the Miami Herald’s Claire Healy. “More than 57 percent of Florida voters had come out in support of a proposed constitutional amendment to end Florida’s six-week abortion ban — enough to pass in most states, just not this one. Over 6 million people voted for the measure.”

MORE RESULTS — “Trump nearly won Palm Beach County for first time in reclaiming White House,reports Maya Washburn of The Palm Beach Post. “The Republican nominee's loss Tuesday was by his narrowest margin yet, claiming 49 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results from the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Office. The office estimates Kamala Harris won the county by a margin of about 5,500 votes. The office is expected to certify the tally in the next few days.”

 

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PENINSULA AND BEYOND

LAW’S EFFECTS — “Tampa Bay abortion fund saw calls for help triple after Florida’s six-week ban,” reports the Tampa Bay Times’ Christopher O'Donnell . “The group has awarded $710,000 to roughly 150 women to pay for clinic appointments, travel and accommodation costs in destinations like Maryland and Washington D.C., since Florida’s six-week abortion ban went into effect. That’s more than triple the number of women it helped in the first four months of this year, the nonprofit said in a statement marking the six-month anniversary of Florida’s new law.”

PHONELESS IN SCHOOLS — “In this Florida school district, some parents are pushing back against a cellphone ban,” by The Associated Press’ Kate Payne . “Since the beginning of the 2024 school year in August, students in Broward County Public Schools, the country’s sixth largest district, have been barred from using cellphones during the school day, including during lunch and breaks, unless given special permission. … But a survey sent out by the South Florida school district earlier this fall found that of the more than 70,000 students, teachers and parents surveyed, nearly one in five parents believe the cellphone ban is having a negative impact on their student’s wellbeing. Among the top concerns for the students and parents surveyed is not being able to communicate with their family members, especially in an emergency — an anxiety that cuts deep in the district that’s home to Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, where a 2018 shooting killed 17 people.”

...HURRICANE HOLE...

Workers protect a facility ahead of Hurricane Rafael in Havana on Nov. 5, 2024.

Workers protect a facility ahead of Hurricane Rafael in Havana on Nov. 5, 2024. | Adalberto Roque/AFP via Getty Images

ANOTHER STORM — “Hurricane Rafael makes landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 storm after knocking out power on the island,” reports The Associated Press’ Andrea Rodríguez. “Forecasters warned Rafael could bring ‘life-threatening’ storm surges, winds and flash floods to western swaths of the island after it knocked out power and dumped rain on the Cayman Islands and Jamaica the day before. … Forecasters expected the storm to weaken over Cuba before emerging in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.”

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

BIRTHDAY: Jenn Meale Poggie of Pinnacle Media.

 

A message from Uber:

Thank You, Florida Uber Drivers

In the face of Hurricanes Milton and Helene, Uber drivers gave Floridians rides to shelters and support centers. We thank the thousands of Uber drivers who went above and beyond, ensuring that during a time of crisis, no one was left behind. Your dedication made a difference when it mattered most. Learn how Uber drivers stepped up.

 
 

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