Saturday, October 12, 2024

📌 Your End-of-Week Bulletin - October 12, 2024

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Manward Digest
 

Just 24 Days to Go...

Alex Moschina

Alex Moschina
Publisher

24 days.

Less than a month until it's all over.

The ads... the debates... the griping...

Okay, the griping will probably continue.

[Here are Three Steps You Need to Take to Protect and Grow Your Money When America Is Threatened With Mass Unemployment. Watch This Before AI Goes Supernova.]

But at least we'll have another contentious election cycle behind us.

And regardless what new regime we get, the markets can move forward with knowns rather than uncertainty.

Markets hate uncertainty, you know.

The good news is that, almost in tandem with the announcement of this year's election results, we'll have the next key rate decision from the Federal Reserve.

Unburdened by fears of seeming too "political," Jay Powell will step to the podium once again to reveal - Wall Street hopes - the size of its next rate cut.

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Will we get another 50-basis point reduction?

Right now, CME Group's FedWatch tool is predicting a more modest cut. Especially after the Bureau of Labor Statistics stunned with its report showing 254,000 jobs were created in September - a clear sign that the economy remains strong in spite of sky-high rates.

Target Rate Probability for Nov. 7 Fed Meeting

View larger image

But we won't know the Fed's plan for sure until after Election Day.

So what do we know?

Well, thanks to our latest piece from Robert Ross, we know that now is still a good time to invest.

On Tuesday, he broke down the four phases of Merrill Lynch's Investment Clock:

  • Reflation
  • Recovery
  • Overheat
  • Stagflation.

"We're not fully in the Recovery phase yet, but all signs point toward it," he wrote. "This aligns with the idea that markets are entering a 'Goldilocks phase' - steady growth, cooling inflation, and supportive monetary policy."

That certainly describes the moment.

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Robert added...

"Every cycle is different, and this framework, while useful, isn't infallible. However, if the indicators continue to track, we could be moving into a favorable time for stocks, with inflation under control and the Fed cutting rates."

It's a thought worth savoring as we move into the home stretch of election season.

We're almost there, guys...

Have a great weekend,

Alex

P.S. We've just released a special presentation from Shah on what the election could bring... and nine market moves you should consider making. Give it a watch here.

Week in Review

 

Monday Takeaways: The Most Important Players in the Room

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A red-hot labor market has some analysts questioning whether the Fed cut too much. But the bigger question is... who's really in charge of interest rates? Shah knows...

This "Clock" Says It's a Good Time to Invest

Time is money

The economy, by design, is complex and chaotic. No one has all the answers, but what we do have are systems that improve the odds... like this one.

Buy This, Not That: Is CEG a "Buy" Thanks to Microsoft?

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Microsoft put the energy sector on notice with its blockbuster deal with Constellation Energy. Does that make the energy company a "buy"? Find out here.

Dealmaker's Diary: This Cosmetics Giant Paints a Pretty Picture

Cosmetic counters

This cosmetics giant has a strong retail and online presence around the world... and a head-turning 71% profit margin. Check out the "beautiful" investment here.

The Biggest Driver of the Market

Shah at PWS

There's a self-fulfilling narrative driving the markets higher... and it's easy to trade on. See it here.


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Alex Moschina

Alex Moschina is the Publisher of Manward Press. A gifted writer, editor and financial researcher, Alex's career in publishing began more than a decade ago when he worked at one of the world's leading providers of academic research and reference materials. Alex first cut his teeth in the realm of investing when he joined the team at White Cap Research in 2010. There he was charged with covering emerging market trends and investment opportunities. A stint as senior managing editor and editorial director at the prestigious Oxford Club followed. A frequent speaker at conferences and events, Alex has led educational workshops across the U.S. and Canada.

 

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