Monday, October 28, 2024

What we’re watching with one week to go

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
Oct 28, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Madison Fernandez

TOP LINE

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump wrapped up busy weekends as they enter their last full week before Election Day.

Harris kicked off her run with a swing in Texas on Friday — a state that she’s unlikely to win, but visited to boost her abortion-rights messaging — followed by events in the battlegrounds of Michigan, with former first lady Michelle Obama, and Pennsylvania.

Former president Donald J. Trump speaks at his rally at Madison Square Garden.

Former President Donald J. Trump speaks at his rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO

Meanwhile, in another move to capture the vote of young men, Trump made a three hour long appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast. He also hit the trail in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and capped off his weekend with a rally in New York City (a place that, like Harris in Texas, he’s not likely to win). The event, held at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, “was intended to serve as a platform for Trump to make his closing argument but sparked backlash for racial slurs and vulgarity,” POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw writes.

The sprint to the finish line will only get busier over the next couple of days. Here’s what to keep an eye on in the final stretch of the campaign, from some of our most tuned-in campaign reporters.

We’re just over a week out from the election. Can anything the candidates do really make a difference at this point?

The vast majority of voters have made up their minds and the campaigns are largely shifting into get-out-the-vote mode. It’s why you saw Harris in the deep-blue city of Philadelphia Sunday.

But Harris is such a new candidate that there is probably a teeny bit more persuasion that she and Trump can do even now. She’ll be attempting that in her speech at the Ellipse this week, which is designed to remind voters of the Jan. 6 riot at the capitol.

And there’s still time for an October surprise. Just ask Hillary Clinton. — Holly Otterbein

Of course there are things that could still move the tiny sliver of voters who are still unsure how to vote, or perhaps as likely, unsure whether they actually will vote. Harris’ closing arguments about Trump’s role in the Capitol attack could potentially move some disaffected Republican voters who don’t really like her, but can still be convinced to take a stand against Trump. And Trump’s efforts to appeal to low propensity voters (he could stop into a Taco Bell this week!) may still endear some young people who otherwise weren’t interested. — Natalie Allison

What do you think the campaign is doing a good job with at this point?

To win Pennsylvania — the nation’s biggest swing state — Harris has to follow President Joe Biden’s strategy of losing by less in MAGA country.

And, unlike Biden, she doesn’t have the benefit of being a native of Scranton.

So it’s smart that she’s following the playbook used by Biden, as well as Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman, and campaigning in forgotten places throughout the state. — Holly

Trump is doing a good job, as he has for his almost decade of running for president, at captivating people not ordinarily interested in politics. Much ink has been spilled about the McDonald’s stop, the podcasts, the ways he has seemed to capture young men this election. We’ll see when the votes are tallied, though, if those guys actually showed up. — Natalie

Where are they struggling?

High prices are still dragging her down. If Trump wins, it will be partly because voters were so frustrated with inflation that they were willing to overlook their concerns about the former president in order to give him the keys to the economy. — Holly

While Harris’ team makes an explicit play for the moderate, Trump-skeptical, Nikki Haley Republicans, Trump hasn’t been doing or saying a whole lot to assure those people. That’s a continued vulnerability for him. — Natalie

 What’s one down-ballot race you think isn’t getting enough attention right now?

The race for California's 45th District between Rep. Michelle Steel and Democrat Derek Tran. Steel started off the cycle relatively safe, an impressive candidate with a compelling biography and a large war chest. But this contest has grown increasingly competitive thanks to Tran's fundraising and Biden's exit from the ticket. Republicans have now poured a collective $17.4 million into the race to Democrats' $13.7 million. In a poll released by Tran's own campaign in June 2024, Biden trailed Trump by 6 points in this district despite winning it by 6 points in 2020. Now polling clearly shows Harris prevailing and Steel in trouble. — Ally Mutnick

The race in Iowa's 1st District. It's not so much that GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks or Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan are super-compelling political figures (though some of us remember Miller-Meeks as one of the foremost perennial candidates until she finally broke through and won in 2020).

But it's what the emergence of the race on the battlefield represents: either a greater degree of Democratic strength across the largely white northern tier of the country, or the illusion of that strength as an artifact of polling that is struggling to measure Trump's support, especially among white voters. It's not hard to see how the outcome here could inform other races: Harris has been surprisingly durable in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as Biden was before her. Can Sherrod Brown hold on in Ohio?

Both parties' full engagement in IA-01 (and also IA-03) suggest they're seeing the same numbers. But those are also the places where the polling has underestimated Trump the most. — Steve Shepard

What’s one campaign move that has surprised you in recent days?

I'm going to stick with the same district I highlighted above. A fundraising text from Steel's campaign tries to create distance between Tran and Vice President Harris to help the incumbent in her blue-leaning Orange County district. The text notes that as California's attorney general, Harris "fined Big Pharma for ripping off consumers" and notes that Tran sides with drug companies while "Democrats in Congress work to lower drug prices." Pretty strange text to see from a GOP incumbent! — Ally

I'll hedge my bets and say the most surprising move is either the top Senate GOP super PAC diving into Nevada — or House Democrats canceling their spending in Las Vegas out of confidence. It doesn't add up: If Trump is really so ascendant and the early voting numbers are so good for Republicans that they feel Sam Brown can beat Jacky Rosen, then Democrats should probably be protecting Rep. Susie Lee's seat from getting caught up in the coattails.

Who's right? I don't know, but I'm guessing I won't be the only one surprised in the next week or two. — Steve

Happy Monday. Thanks to Holly, Natalie Ally and Steve for the assist with today's top. What are you watching? Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2024 election: 8

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Presidential Big Board

COUNTING AHEAD — House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Andy Harris (R-N.C.) “says the North Carolina Legislature should consider allocating the state’s presidential electors to Trump even before votes are counted in the swing state,” pointing to “the devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene in the western part of the state,” POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports. Both Democrats and Republicans pushed back on his comments.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

THOSE MEDDLING DEMS — Advertisements running in CA-22 from the Voter Protection Project, a group that supports Democratic candidates, “look like they could have run in the Republican primary,” Ally writes. The group charges that Republican Rep. David Valadaoturned his back on President Trump and the whole MAGA movement,” with the goal of peeling “off the loyal GOP voters that Valadao will need to win reelection.” The district voted for Biden by 13 points in 2020. Voter Protection Project made similar attacks against Valadao in the midterms as well.

The group is also spending in support of third-party candidates in a handful of battleground House districts. Republicans have raised concerns that some third-party candidates act as “spoilers” for the GOP.

AS SEEN ON TV

ROUNDUP TIME — Check out the latest batch of ads here. And here are some highlights:

PRESIDENTIAL — Harris highlights former Trump chief of staff John Kelly’s comment that Trump is a fascist. (Future Forward, the main pro-Harris super PAC, has warned that this attack is not as persuasive as spots that highlight her policies, The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman report.)

NE-Sen — Independent Dan Osborn says he’s “where President Trump is on corruption, China, the border,” and adds that Republican Sen. Deb Fischer “tried to stop Trump.”

OH-09 — Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur calls out “the far left” for “ignoring millions illegally crossing the border” and “the far right” for “protecting greedy corporations at every turn,” and adds that she doesn’t “work for Donald Trump or Joe Biden.”

POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — NATIONAL — Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent head-to-head in a poll from The New York Times/Siena College. On the full ballot, Trump has 47 percent and Harris has 46 percent (2,516 likely voters, Oct. 20-23, MoE +/- 2.2 percentage points).

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS also finds them tied at 47 percent on the full ballot (1,704 likely voters, Oct. 20-23, MoE +/- 3.1 percentage points).

A CBS News/YouGov survey has Harris at 50 percent and Trump at 49 percent (2,154 likely voters, Oct. 23-25, MoE +/- 2.6 percentage points).

And in an ABC News/Ipsos poll , Harris has 51 percent to Trump’s 47 percent (1,913 likely voters, Oct. 18-22, MoE +/- 2.5 percentage points).

NJ-Sen — Democratic Rep. Andy Kim leads Republican Curtis Bashaw 51 percent to 32 percent in a survey conducted by GOP pollster Cygnal (600 likely voters, Oct. 23-24, MoE +/- 3.95 percentage points).

OH-Sen — Brown earns 47 percent and Republican Bernie Moreno gets 45 percent in a Bowling Green State University poll conducted by YouGov (1,000 likely voters, Oct. 10-21, MoE +/- 3.6 percentage points).

VA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is ahead of Republican Hung Cao 54 percent to 41 percent in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (1,004 likely voters, Oct. 19-23, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points).

OH-13 — Former Republican state Sen. Kevin Coughlin has 46 percent to Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes’ 45 percent in an internal poll for Coughlin conducted by Coefficient (707 likely voters, Oct. 22-24, MoE +/- 3.68 percentage points).

CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: “A mystery swirls around Capitol poop statue: Who took Pelosi’s nameplate?” — The Washington Post

 

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