Monday, October 28, 2024

The True Cost of the American Dream

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EDITOR'S NOTE

We were doing some election research, and we discovered something interesting.

Dating all the way back to President Reagan, the stock market has averaged a 17% gain in post-election years.

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THE SHORTEST WAY TO A RICH LIFE

Does the American Dream Really Cost $4.4 Million?

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Alexander Green

The American Dream has been front and center in this year's political contest.

But only because both major-party candidates claim it doesn't exist anymore.

In a Newsweek column this month, former president Donald Trump wrote, "For years, Americans have watched as our country has been stripped of our jobs and stripped of our wealth."

That's a hard claim to justify when unemployment is near a 50-year low and U.S. household income and net worth are at record levels.

However, I do agree with his plan to offer foreign manufacturers who set up shop in the U.S., "the lowest taxes, the lowest energy costs, the lowest regulatory burden, and free access to the best and biggest market on the planet."

He also struck a positive note when he promised that he "will bring back the American dream, bigger, better, and stronger than ever before."

Vice President Kamala Harris also thinks the American dream is slipping away, an odd claim for someone whose administration has been in charge for almost four years.

At the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's Leadership Conference earlier this month, she said, "the American dream is elusive for far too many people increasingly."

In an interview with MSNBC, she expanded on this, saying, "Gone is the day of everyone thinking they could live the American dream."

And in an NBC interview this week, she tripled down, saying, "You know, the idea of the American dream was something that previous generations could count on, not as much anymore."

She claims that she will reverse this by creating an "opportunity economy."

Unfortunately, she has been notoriously short on details, other than using taxpayer money to give $25,000 to first-time home buyers and forgivable small-business loans of up to $20,000 to Black and Latino entrepreneurs.

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Hmm. The real issue here, as Ronald Reagan noted more than 40 years ago, is that government is more often the problem than the solution.

The public-school monopoly, high taxes, mounting federal regulations, needless licensing requirements, the absence of right-to-work laws, and the ever-metastasizing national debt are more a hindrance than a help to everyday Americans who just want to get ahead.

Moreover, the American dream in many respects has never been more expensive.

According to the financial media site Investopedia, the cost of having a house in the suburbs, a car in the driveway and two children - if, indeed, this is how you would describe the dream - now costs a staggering $4.4 million.

That's not out of line with what a dual-income household might earn. But it is over $1 million more than most Americans will make in their lifetime.

Here is how Investopedia breaks the numbers down:

The report suggests that Americans need to start saving from the moment they land their first full-time job in their 20s until they reach 65 to retire comfortably and live off a 4% withdrawal each year, which would generate approximately $64,000 for 20 years.

The home expense of $929,955 looks high. But that is a $400,000 house plus 30 years of interest, insurance and taxes.

Raising two kids through age 17 is estimated to cost $611,694. It's adding four years of college - not always necessary - that brings the total to $832,172.

And the estimate of the cost of children may be low. In today's world, plenty of kids stick around the house until they're well into their twenties.

I could quibble with some of the expenses.

No one needs to own a new car. Vacations don't have to be uber-expensive. Don't even get me started on the insane cost of the typical wedding these days.

And owning a pet is optional. (Although I know plenty of friends and family members who would disagree.)

But the bottom line is this... the best things in life may be free, but living the dream takes money. A lot of it.

No wonder an increasing majority of Americans feel it's completely out of reach, especially since spiraling inflation, higher mortgage rates, and a tight housing market have made getting on the property ladder increasingly tough.

Polls show that just 21% of young people today think the American dream is achievable.

And yet... many millions are well on their way to achieving it.

Not the folks who are waiting for some politician to make it happen, but those who have embraced what I call radical responsibility.

I'll explain what I mean in my next column.

Good investing,

Alex

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