Monday, October 28, 2024

Rollins is rollin’ in it

Inside the Golden State political arena
Oct 28, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte

Robert Garcia (center) and Will Rollins (right) are seen.

Rep. Robert Garcia (center) and Will Rollins (right) arrive at an orientation meeting in the U.S. Capitol Building on Nov. 14, 2022, in Washington, D.C. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

THE BUZZ: CASH DASH — In just two years, Will Rollins has rapidly ascended from longshot candidate to Democratic Party darling.

As Dustin reported over the weekend, the scale of outside money pouring into Rollins’ rematch against Republican Rep. Ken Calvert illustrates how intently Democrats are fighting to flip the inland Southern California district in their bid to retake the House majority. The party and its allies have put more than $6 million into TV advertising, while Rollins has raised another $11.5 million — dwarfing the roughly $4.6 million spent on the Democratic side last cycle.

“Will Rollins, I tell folks, I think is the best candidate we have in the country,” said California Rep. Pete Aguilar, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus.

Recent polling suggests Calvert and Rollins are in a dead heat in what has become one of the most closely watched and expensive battleground slugfests in the country, as both sides swamp the district with ads and armies of door-knocking canvassers.

The momentum among Democrats has been building since Rollins came within a mere four percentage points of the incumbent two years ago. Now, they feel they have a real chance at flipping the seat.

“This is no longer a possible, this is a very possible. He’s got name recognition now,” said Elle Kurpiewski, political director for the Democratic Headquarters of the Desert, a regional party outreach office.

Republicans, who have responded with a late surge of spending, have sounded alarm bells in recent weeks about Calvert’s vulnerability. When former President Donald Trump held a massive rally in the Southern California desert on the edge of Calvert’s district this month, he made an appeal to the thousands of people baking in the triple-digit heat: “Everybody needs to get out and vote for Ken.”

It’s not just this race. An avalanche of money is pouring into other battle congressional campaigns in California and New York.

As POLITICO’s Jessica Piper, Melanie Mason and Emily Ngo report today, roughly one in three independent expenditure dollars in House races have been spent in the two blue states this year, up from one in five over the 2022 election cycle, according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Election Commission data.

California and New York seen the greatest increases in out-of-state money, both in dollars and as a percentage of overall spending, compared to 2022.

Republican PACs, including the Congressional Leadership Fund, have accelerated their spending behind Calvert in recent weeks. The Republican incumbent also has vastly greater resources than he did in 2022 — about $9.5 million more from outside groups — and a new super PAC started by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy has also spent $300,000 to attack Rollins.

Calvert’s district is no longer the deep-red stronghold it once was, after it was redrawn as a purple battleground during California’s last redistricting process. It now encompasses the deep-blue, LGBTQ-friendly desert oasis of Palm Springs, as well as the conservative suburbs of Riverside County, east of Los Angeles — creating vulnerabilities for the incumbent.

Calvert called Democrats’ criticisms over his opposition to abortion rights and evolving record on marriage equality a distraction from “bread and butter” issues like gas prices and crime.

“Those are settled issues in California,” he said in an interview. “Those things aren’t going anywhere in a state like ours.”

GOOD MORNING. Happy Monday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Early in-person vote centers opened up across 29 counties over the weekend.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Holding a virtual news conference this afternoon to discuss the state's crime-fighting efforts. The governor this week will also be hitting the trail in a final get-out-the-vote push across the state, including in key House and legislative races, his team tells us. Deets TBD.

CAMPAIGN YEAR(S)

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a service.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a service at the Church of Christian Compassion, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024, in Philadelphia. | Susan Walsh/AP

DEEPFAKE DISTRACTION — It’s not the digital imitations of Harris or Trump you need to worry about this year — it’s the ones of local candidates you’ve never even heard of.

As POLITICO’s Sasha Issenberg reports, billions of dollars are being spent trying to move opinions using traditional methods, so it’s unlikely that a deepfake attack on either presidential candidate would swing the election. But the situation is far different as one moves down the ballot, where voters’ views of candidates are likely to be more susceptible to new information, whether or not it’s true.

Consider an incident that occurred ahead of Utah’s GOP primary for governor. A video that impersonated Gov. Spencer Cox’s voice falsely showed the Republican admitting to the “fraudulent collection of signatures” on his ballot-access petition — and quickly caught fire on social media. It remains accessible and easy to share on the platform X as Cox seeks to win a second term next month.

Read more about the potential peril to down-ballot candidates. 

MEDIA MESS — Fallout from the Los Angeles Times owner’s decision to bar the publication’s editorial board from endorsing a presidential candidate continued to unfurl over the weekend.

Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong’s daughter, Nika Soon-Shiong, a 31-year-old progressive political activist, told the New York Times on Saturday that the decision was motivated by Vice President Kamala Harris’ support for Israel in its war in Gaza.

“Our family made the joint decision not to endorse a Presidential candidate,” Nika Soon-Shiong told the New York Times. “This was the first and only time I have been involved in the process.”

Dr. Soon-Shiong, in an interview with a Los Angeles Times reporter, said neither Gaza, nor his daughter, played any role in the decision not to endorse. Soon-Shiong, a billionaire who bought the paper in 2018, has defended his choice despite uproar across the state, three high-profile resignations from the editorial team, and thousands of canceled subscriptions. The owner said he had offered the board the chance to present a non-partisan side-by-side analysis of the candidates, which it turned down.

“I have no regrets whatsoever. In fact, I think it was exactly the right decision,” he told LA Times reporters.

The ordeal has raised questions among the public and politicians about the paper’s integrity and motives. At a campaign event in Las Vegas on Saturday, Rep. Adam Schiff, a California Senate candidate, said he thinks the Times should be clear about what was motivating its decision not to endorse, especially when the editorial board has been sounding the alarm about Donald Trump’s threat to democracy for years.

“I would certainly hope that the decision not to endorse is not a commentary on the war in Gaza, which the administration has worked hard to bring to an end,” Schiff said. “I don’t know what to make of the conflicting statements issued by father and daughter, but I think the LA Times needs to be more transparent about what was really behind this decision.”

FOR GOOD MEASURE

Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa talks to reporters during a press conference.

Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa talks to reporters during a press conference at the construction site of a new water desalination plant in Antioch, California, on Aug. 11, 2022. | Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — DEMS PITCH PROP 36 IN NEW AD: The Yes on 36 campaign is stressing its bipartisan credentials in a new digital ad launching today: Two Democratic elected officials, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper , pitch the tough-on-crime initiative in the 30-second spot.

"You see it almost every day: Smash-and-grab criminals cause stores to raise prices, lock up items, and close their doors," Cooper says in the ad, over video footage of groups of people robbing stores.

Then Villaraigosa comes on, calling Prop 36 a "balanced approach."

"We have to do more to solve California's crime problem," he says. "That's why local mayors, police, small businesses and working families all support 36."

The ad is the Yes on 36 campaign's latest effort to highlight support from across the political spectrum for the proposal, which has divided Democrats in the state. (It's also a convenient way for Villaraigosa, who's the only 2026 Democratic gubernatorial hopeful who's endorsed Prop 36, to get himself in front of voters alongside an initiative that's proven popular with the electorate.) — Emily Schultheis

STATE CAPITOL

The Netflix logo is displayed at Netflix studios in front of the Hollywood sign.

The Netflix logo is displayed at Netflix studios in front of the Hollywood sign on October 20, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. | Getty Images/Mario Tama

DOUBLING DOWN ON HOLLYWOOD — Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to double the size of California’s film tax credit, hoping to court a marquee California industry that has increasingly moved out of state.

As our own Blake Jones reported Sunday for Pro subscribers, Newsom wants to grow the incentive from $330 million annually to $750 million, intensifying an arms race between states to draw movie and TV production with tax benefits. Other states have added and expanded their credits in rapid succession since 2020, trying to buoy an industry that was battered when theaters closed and production halted due to the pandemic.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

REFINED ARGUMENT — California oil czar Tai Milder isn’t too worried about Phillips 66’s plan to shut down its LA refinery, even though it makes 8 percent of the state’s gas. Read why in Friday’s California Climate.

Top Talkers

OCTOBER SURPRISE — The Fair Political Practices commission is investigating donations received by Los Angeles City Councilmember Kevin de León’s reelection campaign. (Los Angeles Times)

POLLING THE PUBLIC — Voters in one Orange County city will weigh in on a measure to expand voting rights for immigrants as Republicans work to curtail the practice nationally. (POLITICO)

RECON — Insurers are using satellite images to inspect homes in California — and dropping policies in the process. (San Francisco Chronicle)

AROUND THE STATE

— The Mexican economy, almost exclusively driven by trade, could be upended if former President Trump follows through on his promise to slap new tariffs on all imports to the U.S. It could prompt more people to migrate to America. (Los Angeles Times)

— Despite potential harm to their farms, rural voters in swing states continue to support Trump in spite of a looming trade war. (Wall Street Journal)

— Campaigns are employing social media influencers to sway your vote. (Washington Post)

PLAYBOOKERS

BIRTHDAYS — Krysta Wanner at the Western Propane Gas Association … Oscar Sandoval… Madison Lynch, campaign strategist at J&Z Strategies… Bill Gates Steve Hartell of Amazon … 

BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Sunday): Nicholas Roosevelt … (was Saturday): FTC’s Rebecca Kern

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.

 

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Lara Korte @lara_korte

 

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