Brace for climate catastrophe. A new United Nations report says the world’s governments are falling far, far short of the goals they set themselves when it comes to cutting their greenhouse gas pollution. And time is rapidly running out to change course. One of the report’s most striking findings: The odds of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the international target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, are vanishing toward zero. Instead, governments’ current policies and pledges will lead to a temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees, write Zia Weise and Lucia Mackenzie. It is difficult to underestimate how disastrous this level of warming would be. In the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit warming to “well below” 2 degrees, at which point scientists say humans face severe, cascading risks. Each fraction of warming means an uptick in the severity and frequency of dangerous heat waves, storms, wildfires and other disasters. Scientists say 3 degrees could lead to the total collapse of numerous ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest, rapid ice sheeting melting, mass coral bleaching, months-long heatwaves, droughts, floods and other potentially irreversible events. “If nations do not implement current commitments then show a massive increase in ambition in the new pledges, followed by rapid delivery, the Paris Agreement target of holding global warming to 1.5C will be dead within a few years and 2C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, the U.N. environment chief. The warning comes as global leaders are slated to meet in Azerbaijan for the COP29 climate summit in a few weeks. Countries will be tasked with developing a plan to finance climate action in developing countries with an eye toward COP30 in Brazil next year. COP30 is the deadline for governments to submit new plans for how they will slash emissions to meet the Paris Agreement targets. Anderson said today’s report means countries need “dramatically stronger” plans, increased funding for curbing planet-warming pollution and greater leadership from the largest polluters. The biggest are China, the United States and India, according to federal data. The world is already 1.3 degrees hotter than before the Industrial Revolution. The main culprit is the use of fossil fuels for energy. Countries have agreed to transition away from fossil fuels – and yet carbon pollution from oil, coal and natural gas hit an all-time high last year.
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