| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil, Robbie Gramer and Suzanne Lynch | | 
The so-called BRICS bloc of countries convened for a summit in Kazan, Russia this week — a sign that U.S. efforts to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin on the world stage are falling short. | Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The U.S. and its allies are on a renewed push to cut Russia’s economy off from the world to pressure it to end the Ukraine war, but not everyone is convinced sanctions and other economic restrictions are thwarting Russia’s military ambitions. On Friday, G7 finance ministers are expected to announce the details of a much-delayed $50 billion loan package for Ukraine. Under this plan, allies would lend Ukraine money that will be paid back using the income generated from immobilized Russian assets held in European banks. G7 leaders agreed to that in June, but it faced delays over U.S. concerns about the EU’s obligation to renew its own sanctions regime every six months and questions on whether the White House could disperse the funds without congressional approval. (The U.S. announced Wednesday that it was finally on board and would provide $20 billion for the package.) That comes after U.S. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN teased a new tranche of sanctions against Russia Tuesday that could come “as soon as next week.” These are the latest in a series of U.S. and European efforts over the past two years to limit Russia’s economic ability to sustain the war effort and hamper its defense-industrial base. At the outset of the war, President JOE BIDEN had pledged to reduce the “ruble to rubble,” yet Russia’s economy has continued growing, and Moscow still has plenty of funds for its war effort. “If the expectation was set by the premature victory lap that Biden administration officials took at the beginning of the war, then they're certainly not living up to that,” said JOHN HARDIE, deputy director of the Russia program at the hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. U.S. officials argue that there’s a different way to define success. The goal of these economic tactics never was, and cannot be, collapsing the Russian economy, said a senior administration official who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about U.S. strategy. “Our goal was really to prevent Russia from acquiring weapons and means to carry out this war.” New sanctions, the individual added, are now intended to improve enforcement and adjust to efforts by Russia and its allies to circumvent existing restrictions. “We fully expected the Russians to be able to adapt to our sanctions and find ways of circumvention,” the official said. “That's why we have a continual effort where we are rolling out sanctions packages every few months to adapt.” Not everyone shares those rosy assessments of U.S. sanctions policy. GEORGE BEEBE , a former CIA analyst who led the agency’s Russia desk, said it’s “obvious on the battlefield” that sanctions aren’t preventing Russia from continuing the war. Europe is breathing a sigh of relief that the U.S. at least finally appears to be on board with the loan package. Senior EU official PASCHAL DONOHOE, who heads the group of Eurozone ministers of countries that use the euro currency, told our own SUZANNE LYNCH that the imminent deal is a “hugely important signal to Ukraine and the rest of the world about our ability to maintain a common approach within the G7 on very complex economic issues.” And other European officials are eager that the U.S. is designing new sanctions against Russia. In an interview, Lithuanian Vice Minister of Finance MINDAUGAS LIUTVINSKAS told NatSec Daily that Russia’s economy retains key vulnerabilities, namely a dependency on energy sales to fund government expenditures, that the U.S. and Europe should address quickly to thwart Russia’s ambitions. “If we tackle that at some point in time, they will just not have enough funds to sustain the economy, [keep] the war economy going, and they will not be able to sustain the war effort,” Liutvinskas said.
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Lockheed Martin is leveraging advanced commercial technologies, such as artificial intelligence, edge computing and 5G.MIL® connectivity to meet the evolving challenges of a more complex battlespace. Learn more. | | | | | ANOTHER ROUND OF TALKS: Top U.S. and Israeli negotiators are slated to travel to Qatar in the coming days in a bid to revive Gaza cease-fire talks and efforts to secure the release of Hamas’ remaining hostages, Blinken announced today during his visit to the region. But one big question that the United States isn’t publicly answering is who exactly from Hamas they will be negotiating with, after Israel’s latest offensive against Hamas killed its top leader, YAHYA SINWAR. Blinken was in Qatar on Thursday, his 11th visit to the region since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. He discussed both the crisis in Gaza and Israel’s latest military offensive in Lebanon. "As Israel conducts operations to remove the threat to Israel and its people along the border with Lebanon, we have been very clear that this cannot lead, should not lead, to a protracted campaign," Blinken said. It’s unclear if Israel will listen to Blinken, or ignore his public pressure like it has much of the Biden administration’s messages and pressure as the conflict has escalated over the last year. ANOTHER BRICS IN THE WALL: The so-called BRICS bloc of countries convened for a summit in Kazan, Russia this week — a sign that U.S. efforts to isolate Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN on the world stage are falling short. Rather than feeling the sting of isolation, leaders from dozens of countries flocked to Russia to meet with Putin. That includes the original BRICS members — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — as well as new and aspiring members from the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. The Kremlin touted the event as the “the largest foreign policy event” it has ever held and state-backed media outlets framed it as a sign of the West’s overall decline and failures to turn Russia into a pariah state. The summit also highlighted the deepening ties between Putin and Chinese President XI JINPING, who also attended the summit and spoke alongside the Russian leader. Another notable attendee was U.N. Secretary-General ANTONIO GUTERRES. Ukraine lashed out at Guterres for going, saying his decision to visit “war criminal Putin” has “damage[d] the U.N.’s reputation.” “We need peace in Ukraine. A just peace in line with the U.N. charter, international law and General Assembly resolutions,” Guterres said at the summit — without addressing Ukraine’s criticisms. TIGRAN GAMBARYAN RELEASED: Nigeria released Binance executive TIGRAN GAMBARYAN from its custody on humanitarian grounds today, after months of concerns from U.S. lawmakers and Gambaryan’s family that his health was suffering in a Nigerian prison. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN praised Gambaryan’s release in a statement today and added that he was “grateful to my Nigerian colleagues and partners for the productive discussions that have resulted in this step.” Gambaryan was detained by Nigerian police on money laundering charges amid negotiations between the cryptocurrency exchange and Abuja. His family protested that the charges against Gambaryan were dubious and alleged that he was being mistreated in Nigerian custody after he contracted malaria and pneumonia and suffered damage to his back. IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | ARTSAKH ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: Former President DONALD TRUMP wrote on Truth Social Wednesday that he will “restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” But his comments are facing pushback from Armenian American supporters of Vice President KAMALA HARRIS. Trump’s post, which saw him argue that “Harris did NOTHING as 120,000 Armenian Christians were horrifically persecuted and forcibly displaced in Artsakh,” using the Armenian name of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, made waves among the Armenian American diaspora. But GREGORY MAHDESIAN, co-chair of Armenian Americans for Harris-Walz, told NatSec Daily that Trump’s post “was all bluster, no policy.” “He didn't demand any right of return for the refugees from Artsakh. There was no recognition of the Armenian genocide,” he added. “He just used the tragedy that Armenians faced last year as a cudgel to just beat Harris over the head and divide our community.” Both campaigns have increased their outreach to Armenian Americans in the closing weeks of the election. Between 20,000 and 30,000 Armenian Americans live in Michigan, and other swing states like Arizona also contain large Armenian diaspora communities. On Armenian independence day this year, Harris endorsed the right of Armenians who were displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh enclave last year to return to their homeland. But many Armenian Americans voters oppose both candidates. Trump gave Azerbaijan military assistance throughout his presidency and did little to stop a 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Harris, meanwhile, has been criticized for the Biden administration’s handling of Azerbaijan’s September 2023 invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian National Committee of America has stopped short of endorsing either candidate, arguing that both candidates need to do more to assure the community that they care about Armenia’s security going forward and make more commitments to the Armenian community.
| | WHITE HOUSE’S AI NATSEC GUIDELINES: The Biden administration released its first-ever guidelines on how U.S. national security and spy agencies should approach the use of artificial intelligence on Thursday, and it’s all centered on China. It’s worth noting that a White House fact sheet on the national security memorandum mentions China only once in passing related to a United Nations General Assembly resolution on AI. But between the lines, it’s all about China and competition with Washington’s top geopolitical rival. The memorandum is aimed at helping these agencies access and harness the most cutting-edge AI tools while trying to prevent its misuse. And it comes as the U.S. government is growing alarmed over the prospect of Beijing and other rivals harnessing AI to undercut the United States and expand repression abroad, as national security adviser Sullivan said at an event at the National Defense University today. “We know that China is building its own technological ecosystem with digital infrastructure that won't protect sensitive data, that can enable mass surveillance and censorship, that can spread misinformation and that can make countries vulnerable to coercion," he said.
| | HILL SUCCESSION DRAMA: A battle is brewing over who might succeed House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) if he cannot get a waiver to stay at the helm of the foreign policy panel. As our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports (with an assist from our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD), it’s not yet been decided whether McCaul will be granted a waiver, and some Republicans are preparing for the opportunity to replace him. Among the contenders are Vice Chair ANN WAGNER (R-Mo.), Middle East Subcommittee Chair (and Helsinki Commission Co-Chair) JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) and Rep. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.). It’s not the only committee that may have some turnover at the top. As our own OLIVIA BEAVERS added, some House Freedom Caucus members are angling to remove House Intelligence Chair MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) over disputes on government surveillance policy and the Ohio Republican’s warnings about Russia launching a nuclear weapon into orbit. But Turner has deepened ties with Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Penn.) and the decision as to who will lead the committee will ultimately rest with the Speaker of the House.
| | | STATE’S SUDAN SANCTIONS: The State Department announced new sanctions against a top Sudanese armed forces official who runs the military’s top weapons-producing arm. MIRGHANI IDRIS SULEIMAN is head of the Sudanese Armed Forces Defense Industries System, the SAF’s primary weapons production and procurement arm. “The Sudanese Armed Forces have prioritized weapons acquisition, including procuring drones from Iran and Russia, rather than heeding calls for peace,” State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said in a statement. U.S. and international-led efforts to end the devastating civil war in Sudan have so far run aground, and as the conflict expands more foreign powers including the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Iran are getting involved.
| | — Former State Department deputy coordinator for counterterrorism IAN MOSS has joined Jenner & Block law firm as a special counsel. — JEFFREY GEDMIN has been named the new president and CEO of the U.S. government-funded Middle East Broadcasting Networks. — LILY McFEETERS is now director for digital policy and international economics at the National Security Council. She most recently was a digital policy adviser at the State Department. — The Mortgage Bankers Association has hired ASTRID VERMEER as its senior vice president and chief financial officer. Vermeer was previously chief financial officer for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems and the International Services for the American Red Cross and also held finance roles at the World Wildlife Fund. — ARIANE TABATABAI is now the deputy assistant secretary of defense for force education and training within the Office of the Secretary of Defense, a position she was offered last month. She was previously chief of staff for assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict.
| | — DATO PARULAVA and EVA HARTOG, POLITICO: The man who bought a country — JEFF STEIN, FEDERICA COCCO and PETER WHORISKEY, The Washington Post: A new Washington influence industry is making millions from sanctions — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and MORGAN ORTAGUS, Fox News: US Navy: Projecting strength and building the fleet of tomorrow
| | | | — Council on Foreign Relations, 9:15 a.m.: The threat of regional military expansion in the Middle East — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Plotting a course for the future of the U.S. coast guard with VADM Peter Gautier — Georgetown University Law Center, The George Washington University Law School, and American University Washington College of Law, the International Atomic Energy Agency, 9:45 a.m.:Nuclear safety and security in an insecure world: A three-day workshop (Oct. 23-25) — Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: The road ahead: Israelis and Palestinians one year after October 7 — Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: The road to investment, peace and security in the DRC Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who isn’t being held to account despite our sanctions against her. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who will finance our military expansion with new IMF loans.
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We’re enhancing our platform-centric business with a network-centric model for cross-domain interconnectivity and interoperability. From space to cyberspace, air, sea and ground – Lockheed Martin is leading the mission-centric approach. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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