| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | Presented by Kidney Care Access Coalition | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | THE DECIDERS — The latest signs that the race between VP KAMALA HARRIS and DONALD TRUMP could be a photo finish: “A Washington Post-Schar School poll of more than 5,000 registered voters, conducted in the first half of October, finds 47 percent who say they will definitely or probably support Harris while 47 percent say they will definitely or probably support Trump. Among likely voters, 49 percent support Harris and 48 percent back Trump,” WaPo’s Scott Clement, Emily Guskin, Dan Keating and Dan Balz write. The state-by-state breakdown: Arizona: Trump +3 … Georgia: Harris +4 … Michigan: Harris +2 … Nevada: tied at 48% … North Carolina: Trump +3 … Pennsylvania: Harris +2 … Wisconsin: Harris +3. Zooming in: “‘Uncertainty reigns’: How Nevada became the swing state campaigns can’t figure out,” by Megan Messerly in Las Vegas
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The Trump and Harris campaigns are racing to push their messages to the small pool of undecided voters that could tip the election. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | THE UNDECIDERS — With the campaign approaching its frenzied final moments, Harris and Trump are “carrying out a virtual house-to-house hunt for the final few voters who are still up for grabs, guided by months of painstaking research about these elusive Americans” — tactical data that is being deployed and reflected in nearly every scheduling decision and media appearance, NYT’s Reid Epstein and Shane Goldmacher report.
- At Harris HQ, “analysts have spent 18 months curating a list of which television shows and podcasts voters consume in the battleground states. Her team has assigned every voter in these states a ‘contactability score’ from 0 to 100 to determine just how hard that person will be to reach — and who is best to deliver her closing message.”
- At Trump HQ, “his team recently refreshed its model of the battleground electorate and found that just 5 percent of voters were still undecided, half as many as in August. The Trump team calls them the ‘target persuadables’ — younger, more racially diverse people with lower incomes who tend to use streaming services and social media.”
COMING SOON TO A DEM ATTACK AD — The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is out with a new assessment of how the Harris and Trump campaigns’ would affect the trajectory of Social Security: “The Social Security Trust Fund might run out of money within six years under a Donald Trump presidency, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposed policies would not meaningfully change the current trajectory,” WaPo’s Julie Zauzmer Weil writes. CAROLINA IN MY MIND — As western North Carolina turned to recovery and rebuilding in the days after Hurricane Helene savaged the region, many observers wondered whether all of the election preparations would hold up. But North Carolinians appear ready to show up for their candidates, Natalie Allison reports from Burnsville, North Carolina. “As early voting has begun in North Carolina — drawing record-setting statewide turnout on Thursday — and the process of restoring water, electricity, road access and mail service is underway, both parties have resumed some of their campaign activities in the affected areas.” “Early GOP concerns that depressed turnout in the red-leaning region could cost Trump in the southern battleground have largely been replaced by resolve to mobilize his supporters to the polls, according to interviews with more than a dozen Republican campaign officials, operatives and county party chairs working in the state.” Related read: “North Carolina Republicans are working to limit voting access — with one exception,” by Emmy Martin HIGH TIMES FOR BIPARTISANSHIP — “The Rare Bipartisan Issue in This Year’s Election: Recreational Weed,” by WSJ’s Dean Seal Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Kidney Care Access Coalition: Today, dialysis patients can be forced off the health coverage that works best for them – even impacting coverage for their spouse and kids.
The Restore Protections for Dialysis Patients Act (S. 5018 and H.R. 6860) is a bipartisan and bicameral bill that will restore protections for dialysis patients and ensure that these patients and their families have a choice in their coverage.
The time for Congress to act is now.
https://www.kidneycareaccess.org/ | | | | MORE CAMPAIGN READS …
- In Alaska, Republican NICK BEGICH heads into the final two weeks with a small but significant advantage over incumbent Dem Rep. MARY PELTOLA in a top battleground race, according to new internal GOP polling obtained by POLITICO. The Cygnal poll has Begich leading Peltola, 49 percent to 45 percent in the first round of voting under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system. More from Anthony Adragna
- The Americans for Contraception Victory Fund PAC is launching ads this week opposing Texas Sen. TED CRUZ and Ohio Senate hopeful BERNIE MORENO, citing Cruz’s vote against the Right to Contraception Act earlier this year and Moreno’s criticism of that bill, which would have codified Americans’ right to obtain birth control and the right of medical providers to dispense it, Alice Miranda Ollstein reports.
- In Georgia, there’s a bizarre dynamic at play as Democrats race to stifle a Democratic nominee in a House race: “After a dizzying sequence of events, the party has disavowed the candidate listed as its nominee for Georgia’s 11th House District: KATY L. STAMPER , a lawyer who argues that the Republican incumbent is not conservative enough and has offered herself as a choice who would be,” NYT’s Rick Rojas writes.
- “The big state Supreme Court races that could shape states for years,” by Madison Fernandez
| | 4 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Elon Musk has engaged with a host of Republican lawmakers on his X platform. | Michael Swensen/Getty Images | 1. MUSK READ: While much of the intrigue around ELON MUSK’s turn to the right has focused on his involvement with Trump, the billionaire tech mogul has also used his influential X account to “communicate directly with members of Congress dozens of times on legislation and congressional activities in the months running up to the 2024 election, a megaphone that experts say is akin to lobbying even if it doesn’t meet the legal definition,” Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports. Playing favorites: “Musk has replied or engaged roughly 41 times with @BasedMikeLee, the personal Twitter account belonging to Sen. MIKE LEE, R-Utah, according to a CQ Roll Call count of posts since Aug. 19. That tally far and away is the greatest number of online engagements with lawmakers.” Who else: Musk engaged 11 times each with Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and the House Judiciary Committee Republicans’ account. “Musk interacted five times with Sen. JD VANCE, R-Ohio, Trump’s running mate; and with House Judiciary Chairman JIM JORDAN, R-Ohio. Other engagements included with Rep. KEVIN KILEY, R-Calif., who has challenged the Federal Aviation Administration’s claims of wrongdoing by SpaceX; as well as with Sen. TED CRUZ, R-Texas, and Sen. JOHN THUNE, R-S.D. Rep. RO KHANNA of California stands out as a Democrat who snared an interaction with Musk, earning two replies from him.” 2. AUSTIN ABROAD: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN “made an unannounced visit to Kyiv on Monday to bolster support for the war effort as Ukrainian forces steadily lose ground to Russian troops and allies stop short of fully endorsing Ukraine’s latest plan to end the conflict,” NYT’s Eric Schmitt reports from Ukraine. During the visit, Austin’s third since February 2022, he met with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and Ukrainian military leaders “to discuss how to continue backing Ukraine’s military campaign” and “announced that the Pentagon would send Ukraine a new $400 million shipment of arms, including ammunition for HIMARS rocket systems, additional munitions, armored vehicles and anti-tank weapons.”
| | | | A message from Kidney Care Access Coalition:   The Restore Protections for Dialysis Patients Act will right a wrong and ensure dialysis patients and their families aren’t forced off their health insurance. https://www.kidneycareaccess.org/ | | | 3. SCOTUS WATCH: “A Writer Sees Leniency in the Supreme Court’s Approach to Public Corruption,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak: “Eight years ago, before revelations about luxury travel and gifts accepted by Justices CLARENCE THOMAS and SAMUEL A. ALITO JR. , the Supreme Court considered the case of a politician who had been prosecuted for public corruption after receiving similar benefits. The court threw out his conviction. In the years since, the court has overturned four other convictions in public corruption cases. “In all five of the decisions, the court’s message has been that ‘federal law must be interpreted so as not to cover behavior that looks, to any reasonable observer, sketchy as hell,’ JOSH CHAFETZ, a law professor at Georgetown, wrote in a new article, ‘Corruption and the Supreme Court,’ which will be published next year in The Yale Journal of Law and the Humanities.” 4. FOR YOUR RADAR: “Commerce Department blacklists dozens of groups over weapons-related violations,” by Robbie Gramer and Maggie Miller: “The United States is adding dozens of new entities to its trade restrictions list in its ongoing bid to disrupt weapons programs aiding Washington’s rivals including China, Russia and Iran. The addition of these groups to the Commerce Department’s entity list, including companies from China, the UAE, Egypt and Pakistan, sheds light on the complex web of global supply chains that Moscow and Tehran are using to circumvent Western sanctions and export restrictions in their race to bulk up their militaries.” Related read: “Putin hosts a summit in a bid to show the West it can’t keep Russia off the global stage,” by AP’s Dasha Litvinova
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Bret Baier was on the other side of the interview in Cigar Aficionado. Susan Ford Bales , the daughter of Gerald Ford, is endorsing Kamala Harris. Mark Cuban wants Elon Musk and Kamala Harris to be friends. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party at Steve Rabinowitz and Laurie Moskowitz’s D.C. backyard sukkah yesterday: Deborah Lipstadt, Aaron Keyak, Dan Shapiro, Mike Jacobson, Dan Arbell, Helaine Greenfeld, Brianne Nadeau, Aviva Kempner, Ken Goldstein, Ken Weinstein, Tom Kahn, Stacy Burdett, Jill Zuckman, Karen Olick, Avi Goldgraber and Vered Guttman. TRANSITIONS — Sarah Kapnick is joining JPMorgan as global head of climate advisory. She previously was chief scientist for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. More from Bloomberg … Stephen Gordon is now senior manager of government affairs for Chevron Phillips Chemical. He previously was director of government affairs for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association and is a House Oversight and EPA alum. WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Chelsea Cirruzzo, a reporter at POLITICO, and Joshua Gaines, a library associate at the D.C. Public Library, got married at St. Francis Hall on Sunday. They met on Long Island and are high school sweethearts. — Kenny Reilly, a junior publicist at MSNBC, and Kate Gold Reilly, a NICU speech language pathologist at NYU Long Island Hospital, got married Saturday at the Liberty Warehouse in Brooklyn. They met 12 years ago in their high school algebra class. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Emily Benavides, of Benavides Strategies and a Rob Portman and Jeb Bush alum, and Mike Thom, political director at the NRCC, on Oct. 12 welcomed John Michael, who joins big sister Lidia. Pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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