| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | Presented by |  | | | | | State Supreme Court races have drawn floods of cash in recent years, motivated in large part by abortion rights and redistricting heading back to the states. In 2023, tens of millions of dollars poured into the race for Wisconsin state Supreme Court as Democrats rallied to elect now-Justice Janet Protasiewicz and flip ideological control of the court to liberals. The Pennsylvania state Supreme Court also drew around $20 million later that year, and Democrats successfully expanded their majority.
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Democratic Michigan Supreme Court then-candidate Kyra Harris Bolden is seen during a Get Out the Vote rally, Oct. 29, 2022, in Detroit. | Carlos Osorio/AP | | This year, more than 30 states are holding state Supreme Court elections — though none have gotten as much attention as last year’s races. Still, some of these contests have the potential to flip control of courts, while others can chip away at majorities. Here are some judicial races to watch: — Michigan: Supreme Court elections in Michigan are technically nonpartisan, though liberals currently have a 4-3 majority. Two seats are up this year: that of Republican-nominated Justice David Viviano, which is open after he chose not to run for reelection, and Justice Kyra Harris Bolden’s. Harris Bolden was appointed by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2022 to replace a retired justice, and she’s now running for the full term against Patrick William O’Grady, a circuit court judge. More than $6 million has been spent on advertising, according to ad tracker AdImpact, and Democrats have a huge advantage. Harris Bolden and Kimberly Thomas, a law professor who’s running for Viviano’s seat against state Rep. Andrew Fink, have spent more than $2 million on joint ads. Justice for All, a group supporting them, has spent around as much, with a message rooted in protecting abortion access. The ACLU previously said it was committing $2 million to the race. — Ohio: Control of the Ohio state Supreme Court is also on the line — and Democrats hope to flip the court from Republicans, who have a 4-3 majority, for the first time in decades. Here, the Supreme Court does use partisan elections. Three incumbents are running for seats: Democratic Justices Melody Stewart and Michael Donnelly, and Republican Justice Joe Deters, who is challenging Stewart. Eighth District Court of Appeals Judge Lisa Forbes, a Democrat, is running for Deters’ open seat against Franklin County Common Pleas Judge Dan Hawkins. Hamilton County Common Pleas Judge Megan Shanahan is challenging Donnelly. Republicans have the spending edge over Democrats on the airwaves, with the GOP putting in $2.5 million in the general election to Democrats’ $1.6 million. The Republican State Leadership Committee, the right’s main committee dealing with down-ballot races, is heavily involved here, putting in more than $600,000 on ads. Republicans are primarily hitting the Democrats on crime, while Democrats are vowing to protect “ freedom and access to abortion.” — North Carolina: Just one seat is up for grabs on the court, which Republicans flipped in 2022, clinching a 5-2 majority. Republican Appeals Court Judge Jefferson Griffin is challenging incumbent Democratic Justice Allison Riggs in the hopes of expanding GOP control. Riggs has far outspent Griffin in the general election, placing $2.9 million on ads, with one saying that Griffin is a “threat to our rights and freedoms” and calling herself “the last line of defense” on the court. Another spot ties Griffin to embattled GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. Griffin has spent around $900,000, and has sought to cast her as too liberal. — Montana: Outside groups are taking notice of the race for chief justice of the Montana state Supreme Court. Supreme Court elections here are nonpartisan, though retiring Chief Justice Mike McGrath is a former Democratic attorney general. More than $3 million has poured into the race on ads between Cory Swanson, a county attorney, and Jerry Lynch, a former federal magistrate judge. Planned Parenthood Votes is the top spender with $1.5 million, warning that Swanson and Dan Wilson, who’s running for the open associate justice seat against Katherine Bidegaray, will “ban abortion.” Both Wilson and Bidegaray are district court judges, and are vying to replace retiring Justice Dirk Sandefur, who had the backing of Democrats when he was elected in 2016. More than $2 million has gone into ad spending for that race, with a bulk supporting Bidegaray. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the 2024 election: 15 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
| | | | A message from PREMION Political: Premion Political PMPs, Now Available on all Major DSPs. As the industry leader for premium Streaming TV Advertising, we are proud to announce our comprehensive, Political PMP solution, which grants streamlined access, across providers and audiences, to all major DSPs through one Deal ID. Click to learn more. | | | | | | RAKING IT IN — Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign outraised former President Donadl Donald Trump “by more than 3-to-1 in September, with the vice president’s massive $222 million haul further extending her financial advantage in the final stretch of a tight presidential election,” POLITICO’s Jessica Piper writes. “Trump’s campaign, in contrast, reported a bit shy of $63 million raised by his campaign in September.”
| | TAKING THE STAGE — Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde met for their first debate on Friday, where they “traded barbs over health care, abortion, TV ads and even their personal lives,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Jessie Opoien and Daniel Bice write. “The most heated moment came when Hovde said Baldwin had a conflict of interest by not reporting investments made by her partner, Maria Brisbane, a Wall Street money manager,” to which Baldwin told him to “stay out of my personal life.” This was the only debate the two have scheduled.
| | | | PRESIDENTIAL — ARIZONA — Trump has 51 percent to Harris’ 48 percent in a CBS News poll conducted by YouGov (1,435 likely voters, Oct. 11-16, MoE +/- 3.3 percentage points). … GEORGIA — Trump earns 49 percent and Harris has 46 percent in an East Carolina University survey (701 likely voters, Oct. 9-14, MoE +/- 4 percentage points). AZ-Sen — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 54 percent to 45 percent in the CBS poll. TX-Sen — Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has 51 percent and Democratic Rep. Colin Allred has 44 percent in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll (1,091 likely voters, Oct. 2-10, MoE +/- 2.97 percentage points). MI-08 — Republican Paul Junge is at 41 and Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet is at 40 percent in an internal poll for the NRCC’s IE conducted by NMB Research (400 likely voters, Oct. 13-15, MoE +/- 4.9 percentage points). MT-01 — Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke leads Democrat Monica Tranel 52 percent to 44 percent in an internal Guidant Polling and Strategy poll for the Congressional Leadership Fund (400 likely voters, Oct. 13-16, MoE +/- 4.9 percentage points). NM-02 — Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez earns 49 percent of support and former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell gets 45 percent in a Research & Polling survey conducted for the Albuquerque Journal (414 likely voters, Oct. 10-18, MoE +/- 4.8 percentage points). NY-19 — Democrat Josh Riley has 48 percent and Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro comes in at 45 percent in an internal Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group survey for Riley’s campaign (801 likely voters, Oct. 9-13, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points).
| | | | A message from PREMION Political:   | | | | | PARTY TIME — Here’s how the party committees did from Sept. 1-30, according to the latest FEC filings. — The NRCC raised $18.8 million and ended the month with $48.9 million in the bank. It spent $40.7 million and had no debts. — The DCCC brought in $30.3 million and had $49.9 million on hand. It spent $67.7 million and had no debts. — The NRSC had a $30.7 million haul. The committee had $21.1 million in its coffers, spent $53.3 million and had no debts. — The DSCC raised $28.1 million last month and had $37.4 million on hand. It spent $37.6 million and had no debts. — The RNC brought in $37.8 million in September and had $69.7 million on hand. It spent $47.4 million and had no debts. — The DNC reported bringing in $98.7 million. It had $46.6 million in the bank, spent $102.1 million and owed $1,000 in debts. IN THE STATES — The Democratic Governors Association made another six-figure investment in Indiana in support of Republican-turned-Democrat Jennifer McCormick, the former state superintendent of public education who’s running for governor against Republican Sen. Mike Braun, per POLITICO’s Adam Wren. The committee has contributed more than $1 million for her campaign.
| | FIRST IN SCORE — BALLOT BATTLE — Using a campaign finance loophole, NRSC chair Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) recently used federal campaign funds from his JFC, the Daines Senate Majority Fund, to buy ads against a Montana initiative on the ballot this year that would let all voters vote in partisan primaries. The ad, for which Daines got lower candidate pricing according to an order form, says that “out of state billionaires are pushing a scheme, forcing us to run our elections like they do in California.” Daines isn’t up for reelection until 2026. Joint fundraising committees supporting Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke and state auditor Troy Downing, the GOP’s candidate in MT-02, are also running ads against the ballot initiative that would implement a top four primary, in which four candidates in the primary, regardless of party, proceed to the general election. The Zinke JFC spot calls out his Democratic opponent by name, saying that “dark money groups … want to rig the system for radical candidates like Kamala Harris and Monica Tranel and force Montana to run our elections like they do in San Francisco.” “Republicans and Democrats across the country are running JFC fundraising advertising,” NRSC spokesperson Mike Berg said in a statement to our Daniel Lippman. “Sen. Daines ran these fundraising ads as he gears up for re-election. Rep. Zinke and Troy Downing are also running these fundraising ads highlighting the fact that Democrats are trying to change Montana’s rules to rig elections for their benefit.” IF YOU CAN’T BEAT ’EM — Democrats are starting to use that campaign finance loophole to save big bucks on TV advertising through JFCs — after failing to stop Republicans from doing the same. After the FEC deadlocked on the issue that Democrats brought forth, effectively allowing the practice to continue, Senate Democrats’ campaign arm said in response that it would “utilize the same tactics” so “our campaigns do not operate at a disadvantage in the closing weeks of the campaign.” Now a JFC supporting Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is up on air in Michigan, and another one boosting Baldwin has placed spending in Wisconsin, according to ad tracker AdImpact. ROUNDUP TIME — Check out the latest batch of ads here. And here are some highlights: MA-Sen — Republican John Deaton is running a biographical spot and compares himself to former Republican Gov. Charlie Baker. VA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine goes after Republican Hung Cao for saying that “no one in the United States is like, ‘Oh my gosh, I will die if I don’t have health care.’” OH-07 — Republican Rep. Max Miller says that Democrat Matthew Diemer and former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who’s running as an independent, are “cut from the same cloth.” CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I think it was a poor choice of approaches to remembering my father, but what are you going to do?” — Peg Palmer Wears, Arnold Palmer’s daughter, on Trump saying that her late father was “all man.”
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