Monday, October 21, 2024

Disney after Iger

How to survive Disney in a post-personality world…
 
   
     
   
 
OCTOBER 21, 2024
   

Hey y’all,

I saw an interesting headline today.

Bob Iger is set to leave Disney… again… after leaving in 2021 and returning in 2022.

As it turns out, though, Disney isn’t confident enough in naming a successor to push Iger out before 2026, when they expect to announce his replacement. Makes sense, after they bungled the first departure so badly that he was gone less than a year.

 
 

Now, oftentimes when a CEO left a company it wouldn’t be the front headline on Yahoo! Finance.

But Bob Iger isn’t just any CEO. He’s been the CEO of Disney since 2005, and coached them out of their first “dark ages” — after the animation boom of the early-mid 90s, and before the unification with Pixar in around 2006.

He’s like Nick Saban leaving Alabama to wallow in the mud and lose to Vanderbilt and Tennessee (sorry, Tide fans)…

Except Saban left Alabama on top, leaving them two years after their last National Championship victory, and just one year after their last appearance.

The same cannot be said for Iger, who will, barring any shocking turnarounds, will leave Disney in the most perilous position they’ve been in since the Pixar merger.

In the past year, Disney has hemorrhaged cash on multiple big-name box office flops, coming nowhere near the 2.5x return on budget that studios target to consider a movie “profitable.” 

 
 

Meanwhile their streaming service has struggled as well.

After growing substantially for several years, subscriber rates stagnated, and then reversed precipitously — now, they’re stuck in a rut:

 
 

And many of their shows for that platform have been failures as well, most notably the Star Wars series The Acolyte.

Its budget ballooned to nearly a quarter-of-a-billion dollars, before it was critically panned by both skeptics and Star Wars die-hards alike, and canceled after one season.

The point isn’t to beat up on Disney…

My interest is just to study the phenomenon that makes this possible.

Since its inception, Disney has looked to its leader as the “cult of personality” that drives the whole machine.
And whether that’s Walt Disney himself, or Michael Eisner, or, now, Bob Iger, that strategy has obviously rewarded them richly at times.

But clearly, it has failed them many times too. In the late 90s and early 2000s, Disney sunk into the doldrums, losing the passion and creativity that had made them so successful.

And while I won’t get into debates about why their current crop of content seems to be missing the mark, they certainly are not producing the kind of quality content that people can’t wait to see and share with their families — the content that has made Disney so successful over the years.

It’s not a Bob Iger problem. It’s a structural problem across an entire, great company. But the reticence to move on from Iger and seek new leadership quickly shows that Disney seems unable to let old habits die.

With that said, I’m very interested to watch Disney from an investment perspective.

Right now, it sits at about half of all-time highs, but I don’t think it will stay there forever.

The building blocks are there for another Disney golden age: they have the IP (Star Wars, Pixar, Marvel, and more)… they have the platforms (Disney+, theatrical releases, not to mention ESPN and ABC)…

They just have to capture the magic again.

I think once they do, they’ll be a company to watch closely. But if they take two years to replace a CEO who is already long in the tooth, I wouldn’t expect it to happen very quickly.

To your prosperity,
Stephen Ground
Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub


P.S.: Speaking of magic, Nathan waved a magic wand and turned his best strategy into a BRAND NEW way to target payouts while you sleep. If you haven’t yet, make sure you catch the Overnight Income Project here.

 
   
 

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