Monday, October 21, 2024

America’s Cold War Dividend is Over (Nasdaq:UROY)

 
Katusa Research
 
 
Katusa Special Situations Company Alert:

**Disseminated on behalf of Uranium Royalty Corp**


When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the USA won the Cold War.

A major benefit of winning the Cold War was the United States was to secure low electricity prices as America secured cheap Russian uranium because Russia was essentially broke.

Low-cost electricity is directly correlated to rise in GDP and the benefit stable low-cost nuclear power helped US GDP growth.

Without that low-cost electricity, America’s GDP would be lower. That’s a fact.

But moving forward, the hyperscalers understand the benefits from 33 years of America’s Cold War Dividend…

The benefits obtained from winning the Cold War - like low cost Russian uranium, which fueled low cost electricity that ended in 2024.

America needs to secure a stable, secure source of uranium outside of Russia’s sphere of influence.

Not only has Russia caused a divide in the supply of uranium to the US, but Russia’s geopolitical actions have caused Congress to pass the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act (PRUIA).

  • This legislation forces U.S. nuclear operators to phase out Russian fuel in just four years.

America’s Cold War dividend has stopped, and America’s solution is in fact, in its own back yard.

The real kicker? Kazakhstan. Responsible for 43% of the world’s uranium, is tied to Russia through Rosatom and can’t reliably get uranium to the U.S.

The West will now have to compete with China for every pound of Kazakh uranium.

The East-West uranium divide is real, and the real leverage Russia plans on exploiting.

But again, like in the Cold War, America’s solution is within America.

And one company is perfectly positioned to profit from it.
 

Turning a Stockpile into a Cash Flow


With the sudden polarization of uranium, Western nuclear operators are scrambling for non-Russian fuel.

Enrichment supplier Urenco is already seeing demand for Western uranium with commitments 21 years out, but supply is scarce.

Years of cheap Russian uranium crushed U.S. mining, with the U.S. producing just 50,000 pounds in 2023—less than 0.1% of what U.S. utilities need.

The recent turn of events has placed Uranium Royalty Corp. (NASDAQ: UROY) in a good position.
 

HIGH RISK: **Disseminated on behalf of Uranium Royalty Corp**

KATUSA SPECIAL SITUATIONS STOCK ALERT:

Uranium Royalty Corp.

(UROY:NASDAQ / URC:TSX)

Over the past five years, UROY has purchased over 3.5 million pounds of uranium, most of that uranium at prices 50% or lower than the current spot price — and currently holds 2.4 million pounds of uranium, in a storage facility in America.

All Western uranium, all stored in America, above ground ready to be used at the right price.

The stockpile’s value has already dramatically risen in value over the past year.

And it looks to become far more valuable as a means of tiding over nuclear operators as U.S. and Canadian developers rush to start uranium production in this hemisphere.
 

This is where UROY’s business model goes from sensible to brilliant


Because alongside the uranium stockpile, Uranium Royalty Corp. has acquired nearly two dozen uranium mine royalties.

Its biggest hauls so far are royalties on three producing assets: Cigar Lake, McArthur River and Langer Heinrich.

  • Cigar Lake has extraordinarily high grades that are 100 times the world average, and it has seen its proven reserves expand by 25 million pounds in just the last nine months and is in production.
  • McArthur River is believed to be the highest-grade operating uranium mine in the world according to Cameco—and URC’s royalty pays out in physical uranium. Cameco expects to greatly increase production, which is pure profit for URC.
  • Langer Heinrich has already produced 44 million pounds of uranium is projected to produce another 77 million pounds.

But here’s what’s really striking about Cigar Lake and McArthur River operating mines:

  • They are both in the lowest-cost quartile globally, and together they have the capacity to churn out one-fifth of the world’s uranium demand.

They’ve also got 24 royalty interests on 19 development, advanced, permitted, and producing uranium projects in multiple jurisdictions.

And the current physical uranium holdings, at current spot uranium prices are worth over $200 million, if you can even get that amount of uranium locked down at all. All that uranium has already been bought and paid for.

The company has no debt.
 

Playing BOTH SIDES of the World


Because passing the ban on Russian uranium imports immediately activated a massive congressional Easter egg:

$2.7 billion is to be spent on building out domestic uranium fuel cycle production (Nuclear Fuel Security Act).

So, mine developers are working at breakneck speed to open mines.

UROY holds extensive royalty interests in both conventional and in-situ recovery projects throughout the Western United States.

With its broadly diversified portfolio, UROY is executing a conservative business model with zero direct mining risk.

  • UROY currently trades relatively close to the current market values of its liquid assets (Cash, securities and uranium).
  • This is before you consider the value of its royalty portfolio.

Company leadership sees the Russian import ban adding further positive pressure on uranium fundamentals.

And as the ban fully kicks in by the end of 2027…

The ensuing chaos is expected to launch uranium prices, just like in 2006.


So UROY continues to accelerate premium royalty purchases, with a focus on those that are expected to be in production in the second half of the decade.

Several of the operators of its royalty properties have announced plans to seek production in the next decade.

Uranium Royalty Corp. (NASDAQ: UROY) is in a strong position in the market, at a key time to be in that position.

Katusa Research believes the global uranium market is at an inflection point.

With an existing structural supply deficit and an ever-increasing demand for uranium to fuel reactors, the industry is ripe for growth.

Of course, as always, you should review UROY's most recent annual information form and other filings at www.sec.gov and www.sedarplus.ca for important information regarding it and its assets.

Regards,

Marin Katusa and the KR Special Situations Team

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Please do not rely on the information presented by Katusa Research as personal investment advice.

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In our role, we aim to highlight specific companies for your further investigation; however, these are not stock recommendations, nor do they constitute an offer or sale of the referenced securities. Katusa Research partner company, New Era Publishing Inc. has received cash compensation in the amount of $1.25M from Uranium Royalty Corp and is thus extremely biased . It is crucial that you conduct your own research prior to investing. This includes reading the companies' SEDAR and SEC filings, press releases, and risk disclosures. The information contained herein regarding Uranium Royalty Corp. has been derived from its SEDAR+ and SEC filings, including scientific and technical information regarding its royalty assets which has been reviewed and approved by Darcy Hirsekorn, its Chief Technical Officer and is a professional geoscientist in Saskatchewan and a qualified person as defined in National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects and is registered as a professional geoscientist in Saskatchewan. Information regarding the projects underlying Uranium Royalty Corp.'s interests has been derived from the publicly available disclosure of the underlying operators and owners, including where referenced herein.

Katusa Research, and its directors, employees, and members of their households directly own or may own shares of Uranium Royalty Corp (UROY/UROY.TSX). Therefore, Katusa Research is extremely biased. Measures are in place such that no shares will be sold during the active awareness campaign.

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