News: Bowman loses, Curtis to succeed Romney and other big results from Tuesday

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Bowman loses, Curtis to succeed Romney and other big results from Tuesday

Jun 26, 2024

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By Madison Fernandez

Presented by LG Ad Solutions

With help from Isabella Ramírez

Editor’s note: This is a special edition following last night’s primaries.

TOP LINE

Two people didn’t have a great Tuesday night: Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and former President Donald Trump.

Bowman, a member of the Squad, lost his reelection bid on Tuesday after facing a barrage of spending from pro-Israel groups for his outspoken criticism of Israel. He is the first Democrat to be ousted from Congress this cycle — and the first sitting member of Congress to lose to a non-incumbent so far (although Republican Rep. Bob Good is trailing as his race in Virginia is likely headed to a recount).

George Latimer embraces a supporter at his election night party.

Westchester County Executive George Latimer embraces a supporter at his election night party in White Plains, New York, on June 25. | Jeenah Moon/AP

Trump’s endorsement has mostly rocketed candidates to victory in competitive primaries this year. But in recent weeks, a handful have lost — and that tally of defeated candidates only increased on Tuesday, as Trump-backed candidates faltered in congressional races in South Carolina, Utah and Colorado.

Here are the highlights from yesterday’s primaries:

— NY-01: Democrat John Avlon, a former CNN anchor, bested repeat candidate Nancy Goroff, a former professor, in the primary to take on Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in this competitive district.

— NY-14: Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez overwhelmingly defeated Marty Dolan, a Wall Street veteran who was previously challenging Bowman. Unlike other members of the Squad, Ocasio-Cortez was never seen to be in any real danger this cycle.

— NY-16: Boosted by millions of dollars in outside spending, Westchester County Executive George Latimer is poised to join the Democratic ranks after handily ousting Bowman. Bowman’s defeat is a boon for pro-Israel groups that got heavily involved in the race, including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and DMFI PAC, especially as they shift their focus toward other vulnerable incumbents like Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.).

— NY-22: State Sen. John Mannion is Democrats’ pick to take on Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in this Biden-won district. Mannion had a large margin over town Councilor Sarah Klee Hood, who came in second place in the Democratic primary during the midterms.

— NY-24: Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney batted away a challenge from the right, and is expected to coast to reelection in the fall.

— CO-03: Democrat Adam Frisch came just over 500 votes away from flipping this district from Rep. Lauren Boebert in the midterms. While he faced no competition in his primary, he and other Democrats sought to boost Republican Ron Hanks, a candidate with a controversial past that could have put a typically uncompetitive seat into play. But that gambit didn’t work, and Frisch will be up against Jeff Hurd — establishment Republicans’ preferred pick — in November.

— CO-04: Boebert, who hopped to a new district across the state following her narrow reelection win in 2022 and a spate of negative headlines, is on a much clearer path to victory in November after winning the Republican primary in the seat previously held by former Rep. Ken Buck.

Boebert chose not to run in the special election so she wouldn’t have to vacate her current seat in the 3rd District, and Republican Greg Lopez, the former mayor who won the special election to finish the rest of Buck’s term this year, did not run for the full term beginning in 2025.

The 4th District is a safe Republican seat — it went for Trump by close to 20 points in 2020 — especially compared to Boebert’s old district.

— CO-05: Trump’s endorsement was not enough to push embattled Colorado Republican Party Chair Dave Williams over the finish line. He lost to conservative commentator Jeff Crank, who was backed by outgoing Rep. Doug Lamborn and Speaker Mike Johnson in this Republican-leaning seat. Millions of dollars poured into the race to oppose Williams, who faced calls to step down from chair as some Republicans took issue with how he used the position to boost his congressional campaign and the direction he was leading the party.

— CO-08: National Republicans notched a major win with state Rep. Gabe Evans’ victory. Evans, who was backed by Johnson and bucked the state party’s endorsement in the hopes of building a “big tent” coalition, will face Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in this battleground district.

— UT-Sen: Rep. John Curtis earned the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney, defeating Trump-backed Trent Staggs, a local mayor who also had the state party's nod.

— UT-Gov: Republican Gov. Spencer Cox, who has spoken out against Trump, fended off a primary challenge from the right from state Rep. Phil Lyman.

— UT-02: As of early Wednesday morning, Republican Rep. Celeste Maloy, who has Trump's backing, is locked in a tight primary. She has a slight lead over Colby Jenkins, a veteran who was boosted by Sen. Mike Lee and the more conservative wing of the party.

— UT-03: State Sen. Mike Kennedy, who had the backing of the state Republican Party, prevailed in the crowded primary to succeed Curtis in this safe red seat.

— SC-03: Trump received another blemish on his endorsement record in the GOP primary runoff to succeed retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan. The former president endorsed pastor Mark Burns, who faced heavy spending from outside groups that play in safe seat GOP primaries to block potential rabble-rousers. Burns lost to Gov. Henry McMaster-backed nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs.

Happy Wednesday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Republican National Convention: 19

Days until the Arizona primaries: 34

Days until the Tennessee primaries: 36

Days until the Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state primaries: 41

Days until the Hawaii primaries: 45

Days until the Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin primaries: 48

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 54

Days until the Alaska, Florida and Wyoming primaries: 55

Days until the 2024 election: 132

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

IT’S NOT GOODBYE — Good said he has the money to pay for a recount in his primary against state Sen. John McGuire, where the challenger was ahead by over 300 votes. “Good signaled he would be willing to respect the results of the recount, though he's cast doubt about the integrity of the race in interviews,” POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers writes.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is backing state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet in the race to replace outgoing Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee in battleground MI-08. McDonald Rivet is up against two other Democrats in the primary.

DO YOU RECALL? — “Conservative activists trying to remove Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos from office submitted enough signatures to trigger a recall election in his old district, according to staff at the Wisconsin Elections Commission,” Wisconsin Public Radio’s Rich Kremer writes. “But a big question remains about whether a recall election can happen there in light of Wisconsin’s new legislative maps.”

JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE.

POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — GEORGIA — An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Trump leading Biden 43 percent to 38 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is not yet on the ballot in the state, is at 9 percent (1,000 likely Georgia voters, June 11-20, MoE +/- 3.1 percentage points).

… NEVADA — In an AARP poll conducted by Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic Impact Research, Trump leads Biden 44 percent to 37 percent, with Kennedy at 10 percent. But, in a head-to-head between Trump and Biden, the two are close at 48 percent to 45 percent (600 likely Nevada voters, June 12-18, MoE +/- 4.0 percentage points).

NV-Sen — In the AARP poll, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown, 47 percent to 42 percent.

FIRST IN SCORE — MO-01 — St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell and Bush are in a tight primary race, according to a Mellman Group poll for DMFI PAC obtained by POLITICO's Daniel Lippman. Bell, who was endorsed by the pro-Israel group, has 43 percent of support, and Bush has 42 percent (400 likely voters, June 18-22, MoE +/- 4.9 percentage points).

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THE CASH DASH

MANCHIN IN THE MIDDLE — Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) will be donating to centrist candidates — including Republicans — and is reformatting his leadership PAC, Country Roads PAC, to facilitate the giving, per Punchbowl’s John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio.

OPEN THE BOOKS — The House Ethics Committee is expanding its investigation of Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) for allegedly violating campaign finance laws, per the Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry. The committee announced its initial investigation last year.

DOWN-BALLOT DOLLARS — The Republican State Leadership Committee said it will make its “largest ever investment in state legislative races and spend $38 million” this year, bringing the total cycle spend to a record $50 million. “While we will never be able to match the constellation of national Democrat organizations that spend on state legislative races dollar for dollar, we can still fight back with smart, targeted investments of our own,” RSLC President Dee Duncan wrote in a memo.

AS SEEN ON TV

PRESIDENTIAL — Biden accuses Trump of having “no plan to help the middle class” and touts the work he’s done on that front.

AZ-Sen — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is running a biographical Spanish-language spot during the Copa América soccer tournament.

FL-Sen — Republican Sen. Rick Scott is also hopping on the Copa train, linking former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to members of the Squad.

PA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is tying Republican Dave McCormick to China.

TX-Sen — Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is up with a Spanish-language spot about supporting access to health care.

WI-Sen — Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is attacking Republican Eric Hovde for saying years ago that overweight people should pay more for insurance.

MO-Gov — Republican state Sen. Bill Eigel vows to “fight Washington.”

… Democrat Mike Hamra, a businessperson, highlights the benefits he gives his employees and outlines his priorities for governor.

NC-Gov — Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is going after Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson over abortion.

… America Works USA, a nonprofit affiliated with the Democratic Governors Association, emphasizes the work Stein has done to curb fentanyl coming into the state.

AZ-01 — Democrat Marlene Galán-Woods vows to protect reproductive rights and features Democratic state Attorney General Kris Mayes in a spot.

AZ-08 — Defend American Jobs, a pro-crypto group, is boosting Blake Masters on immigration ahead of the GOP primary.

TN-05 — Republican Nashville Metro Council member Courtney Johnston, who’s primarying Rep. Andy Ogles, calls Ogles “weak” and accuses him of chasing “headlines, not results.” The spot compares the incumbent to Romney and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).

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STAFFING UP

— Guy Cecil is chief strategist of the Human Rights Campaign’s Equality Votes PAC. Cecil was previously chair of Priorities USA and is a DSCC alum.

CODA: HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “Florida candidate Joe Saunders is suing to get his aunt, ‘Moe Saunders,’ off the ballot” — The Miami Herald.

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