| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | BIG GOP REDISTRICTING WIN — “Supreme Court upholds Nancy Mace’s congressional district that ‘exiled’ 30,000 Black voters,” by The Post and Courier’s Caitlin Byrd: “The practical impact is that the upcoming 2024 election will be held in a district that critics said was intentionally redrawn to reduce the number of Black Democratic-leaning voters to make it more likely that Republican candidates would win.” THORNS FROM THE ROSE CITY — “The White House to the left: We told you so on crime,” by Adam Cancryn, Adam Wren and Jonathan Lemire: “The defeat of a liberal Portland prosecutor at the hands of a tough-on-crime challenger has hardened a view among top White House officials that Democrats need to further distance themselves from their left flank on law-and-order issues.”
|  In a new poll, voters penalize President Joe Biden for inflation more than Donald Trump for abortion. | Win McNamee/Getty Images | IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID — Another day, another set of polls showing DONALD TRUMP narrowly but consistently beating President JOE BIDEN. The Swing State Project — a collab of the Cook Political Report, GOP firm GS Strategy Group and Democratic firm BSG — finds Trump ahead by 3 across an aggregate of seven swing states (or by 5 with third-party candidates included), and winning each state except for a tie in Wisconsin. And a new national poll from Marquette Law School finds anywhere from a 3-point Trump lead to a tied race, depending on likely vs. registered voters and whether other candidates are included. (N.B. for debate watchers: ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., whom both polls show hurting Biden a bit more than Trump, clears the 15 percent threshold here.) Strikingly, even as many voters have significant concerns about Trump on abortion, climate, his criminal trials and democracy — where Democrats have warned he poses an existential threat — inflation trumps them all. “The cost of living defines this election,” write Cook’s Amy Walter and David Wasserman. Many voters are prioritizing economic issues above all else, and they give Trump greater advantages on the economy and immigration than they give Biden on abortion. That’s what WaPo’s Hannah Knowles finds in Chesaning, Michigan, where many voters say Trump’s hush money trial isn’t really moving them: Negative opinions about Trump’s personal behavior are already baked in, and they’re “more eager to talk about grocery prices or their dismay at the country’s politics.” Axios’ Hans Nichols notes that fast food costs have been hit especially hard by inflation under Biden, which could hurt him with low-income voters. Some bright spots for Biden: Gas prices are dipping a bit ahead of the crucial summer driving season, WSJ’s David Uberti reports. … New weekly jobless claims dropped again, showing that the labor market remains remarkably resilient. More from Reuters IMMIGRATION FILES — As our POLITICO colleagues reported this morning, Biden is getting close to announcing his controversial 212(f) executive action, which would allow him to close the southern border if there are too many migrants. The big question mark, NBC’s Monica Alba, Julie Tsirkin and Julia Ainsley report, is Mexico, which has become a critical partner in stemming the tide of illegal immigration. Nothing is final yet, and U.S. officials are still in talks with Mexican counterparts to get them on board. But NBC reports that the Biden administration is planning to roll out the crackdown (including other executive moves) next month, likely waiting until after the Mexican presidential election on June 2. Biden’s potential moves will be the most impactful immigration changes coming from Washington this year, but the border is front and center on the Hill today too, as both chambers vote on bills that stand basically no chance of becoming law. As we previewed this morning, the DCCC is planning to make political hay of Republicans’ very exaggerated concern about non-citizen voting. But the NRCC tells us they’re lining up plans to punish Dems on this, too: Republicans will push the message that front-line Democrats are flip-flopping on immigration or supporting a series of benefits being given to non-citizens. Keep an eye on how many Dems vote for the bill to undo a local D.C. law: The vote is set for 1:20 p.m. Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from INVEST IN OUR LAND: America is strongest when our farmers thrive. That's why Congress made a historic $20B investment in 2022 to support conservation practices that mitigate the effects of extreme weather and strengthen livelihoods.
Now, some want to direct these funds toward less effective practices that threaten farmers’ ability to weather storms and grow healthy soils through climate-smart farming.
Help protect conservation funding to feed America and keep farming viable for future generations. Learn more at InvestInOurLand.org. | | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Republican activists who were fake electors for Donald Trump in 2020 are running again. | Michael M. Santiago/Pool Photo via AP Photo | 1. DEMOCRACY WATCH: Since Republicans who tried to subvert the 2020 election have faced scant political consequences, many activists who stepped up as fake electors for Trump four years ago are now running again to serve as electors, WaPo’s Amy Gardner and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez report. Across Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada, criminal indictment has not deterred these stalwarts, “raising the question of what they might do or say if Trump once again loses any of those states.” Congressional reforms have made it harder for a similar scheme to succeed, but the political impact could still be significant. Two indicted electors have also raised their hands in Arizona, though state party officials there are less enthused about a rerun. 2. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM — As planning for the Republican National Convention heats up, the Trump campaign is maneuvering under the radar to prevent the GOP from going too far to the right on abortion and same-sex marriage in its party platform, NBC’s Matt Dixon reports. After the party completely passed on updating its platform in 2020, some of the internal fights over policies are coming to a head this year. And under the radar, Trump allies are working to make sure that state-level elections for spots on the platform committee don’t produce too extreme a socially conservative lineup for the general election. Instead, they’re trying to select close Trump backers. Another question for the convention: Will Trump-skeptical GOP senators show up? Sens. MITT ROMNEY (Utah), LISA MURKOWSKI (Alaska), TODD YOUNG (Ind.) and THOM TILLIS (N.C.) tell The Hill’s Al Weaver they probably won’t be there in Milwaukee. And Sens. MIKE ROUNDS (S.D.), SUSAN COLLINS (Maine), BILL CASSIDY (La.), JERRY MORAN (Kan.) and RAND PAUL (Ky.) aren’t sure yet. Sen. CYNTHIA LUMMIS (Wyo.) says she supports Trump but doesn’t want to deal with the logistical headache of attending. Other Trump backers say a show of unity is important. 3. NDA FALLOUT: “For the Women Who Accused the Trump Campaign of Harassment, It’s Been More Harassment,” by ProPublica’s Marilyn Thompson: “At least four women of color involved in the 2016 operation have been embroiled in legal fights with the campaign over workplace harassment, discrimination or violations of nondisclosure agreements. They have been subjected to scorched-earth tactics. For years, the Trump campaign has persisted, despite losing consistently, in at least some cases after it was clear that its efforts had damaged the women. Trump was regularly updated … [A] judge’s order in one of those cases may force into public view the new details about staffers who lodged similar accusations.” The Trump campaign responded that one of the cases is “an absurd and fake story.”
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | 4. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD?: There have been ample warnings about worst-case scenarios in which artificial intelligence-generated deepfakes upend the 2024 election. But with six months to go, they haven’t come true yet, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher, Tiffany Hsu and Steven Lee Myers report. Instead, the peril (and promise) of AI for campaigns “remains confined to the margins” for now, as the “political uses of A.I. are more theoretical than transformational, both as a constructive communications tool or as a way to spread dangerous disinformation.” The Trump campaign isn’t using generative AI, and the Biden campaign is using it only sparingly for things like productivity. Of course, the transformation could still be yet to come. More AI news: “White House pushes tech industry to shut down market for sexually abusive AI deepfakes,” by AP’s Matt O’Brien and Barbara Ortutay … “US intelligence agencies’ embrace of generative AI is at once wary and urgent,” by AP’s Frank Bajak 5. TROUBLE IN TEXAS: “‘The house is on fire’: Texas GOP plots its next chapter amid civil war, depleted staff, funding drops,” by The Texas Tribune’s Robert Downen: When MATT RINALDI “steps down as chair this week, he will leave behind a deeply divided organization, with a decimated staff, that is increasingly dependent on two ultraconservative megadonors … Last year, the Texas GOP’s fundraising dropped to its lowest level since 2017 … The party currently has just five employees … In its most recent federal filing, in April, the party reported having $2.7 million on-hand — three-quarters of what it had at the same point in the 2020 cycle, when adjusted for inflation.” 6. ICYMI: DOJ and dozens of states are filing a major antitrust lawsuit against Ticketmaster, proposing that Live Nation and Ticketmaster be split, Bloomberg’s Leah Nylen, Kartikay Mehrotra, and Chris Strohm scooped. “It is time to break it up,” AG MERRICK GARLAND said starkly at today’s announcement. What the feds allege is a monopoly has come under heavy public criticism in recent years, especially after a fiasco over TAYLOR SWIFT tickets. “In an unusual move,” Josh Sisco notes, “the DOJ and states are seeking a jury trial, based on claims from the states.” Live Nation shot back that the government had given in to a “populist urge that simply rejects how antitrust law works.” 7. PACT ACT PROBLEMS: “Veterans became eligible for billions. These firms saw a chance to profit,” by WaPo’s Lisa Rein: “[T]he Honoring our Pact Act has proved enormously popular. … But glitches, slowdowns and other mishaps have dogged the program’s rollout by the Department of Veterans Affairs, enabling the growth of an unregulated shadow industry that promises to drastically boost tax-free disability checks … in exchange for veterans signing away thousands of dollars in future benefits. Despite a federal law that prohibits charging veterans for help in applying for compensation for wartime injuries, as many as 100 unaccredited, for-profit companies now are making hundreds of millions of dollars.”
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Steve Kramer was criminally indicted and fined $6 million for his Joe Biden deepfake. Donald Trump said he could get Vladimir Putin to release Evan Gershkovich. Maggie Goodlander owns a million-dollar home, despite pitching herself as a renter. Nancy Mace has a big lead in her primary. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a screening on Tuesday night at the Capitol Visitors Center of Sheryl Sandberg’s film “Screams Before Silence,” hosted by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Kathy Manning (D-N.C.) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.): Reps. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Bill Keating (D-Mass.), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Juan Vargas (D-Calif.), Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), Lois Frankel (D-Fla.), Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog and Shirin Herzog, Deborah Lipstadt, Aaron Keyak, Rachel Goldberg and Jon Polin, Diane Orentlicher, Eric Fingerhut, Mark Mellman and Rabbi Rick Jacobs. — SPOTTED at Nelson Mullins’ annual spring reception: Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Reps. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), William Timmons (R-S.C.), Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) and Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Steve Benjamin, Jay Suhr, Kraig Long and Ron Klink. — The Travel Technology Association hosted its inaugural “Policy & Innovation Showcase” on the Hill to commemorate its 25th anniversary last night, honoring Reps. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and Dina Titus (D-Nev.) with the “Innovation Leadership Award.” SPOTTED: Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Laura Chadwick, Teddy Tanzer, Tim Kurth, Sally Lindsay, Liz Amster, Kelsey Wolfgram, Julia Saunders, Charlotte Whittier, Emmett O’Keefe and Brad Williamson. — SPOTTED at a reception last night hosted by the Aerospace Industries Association celebrating the Farnborough International Airshow at British Ambassador Karen Pierce’s residence: Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), Paul Myler, Eric Fanning and Ben Masri-Cohen, Alan Estevez, Vago Muradian, Ted Colbert, Heather Podesta, Wendy R. Anderson and Michael Bayer. TRANSITIONS — Nelson Cunningham is joining the State Department as senior adviser to the undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment, after his nomination to be deputy USTR ran into opposition from Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), per Bloomberg’s Eric Martin. … The House Rules majority and Chair Michael Burgess (R-Texas) have added Ashlee Bierworth as policy director, Elizabeth (Lizzy) Predit as press secretary/comms director for Burgess, Juan Miranda as special assistant to the chair and Christian Hilliary and Patrick Englehart as staff assistants. … Maddie McCarthy is joining Cross Screen Media as account manager for customer success. She previously was director of customer success at Prolegis. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook PM misstated Nikki Haley’s title at the Hudson Institute and the timing of her speech.
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