| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | TRUMP’S MONEY BOMB — One night, 117 seated guests and more than $50 million raised. That’s the topline from DONALD TRUMP’s Saturday night soiree at the Palm Beach home of billionaire JOHN PAULSON, reports Alex Isenstadt. What Trump will brag about: The $50+ million haul is double the amount that President JOE BIDEN and the DNC raised at their own recent single-night event in New York City, featuring former Presidents BARACK OBAMA and BILL CLINTON. What Trump won’t mention: Contributors “were asked to donate as much as $814,600” to the Trump 47 Victory committee, the joint fundraising effort of the Trump campaign and RNC. But donors who gave that much have now maxed out their ability to donate to Trump for the remainder of the campaign. In comparison, “Biden’s New York event did not require top-level donors to max out,” and included about 165,000 small-dollar donors who participated “either virtually or in person,” note WaPo’s Hannah Knowles, Josh Dawsey, Maeve Reston and Michael Scherer, THE MADIBA OF MAR-A-LAGO — On Truth Social yesterday, Trump said he is becoming “a Modern Day NELSON MANDELA” as he faced the threat of jail time if he violates the gag order imposed on him by judge JUAN MERCHAN. Mandela, as you may recall, was imprisoned for 27 years because of his work to tear down South Africa’s racist apartheid system. After his release and the fall of apartheid, he won the Nobel Peace Prize, was elected president and became a global icon for human and civil rights. More from WaPo’s Maegan Vazquez
|  Oct. 7 has completely remade geopolitics, with far-reaching consequences for both international affairs and domestic American politics. | Mahmoud Essa/AP Photo | A GRIM ANNIVERSARY — Six months ago today, 3,000 Hamas militants launched a surprise attack during Simchat Torah, a Jewish Holiday, killing 1,200 people, taking more than 250 hostages and starting a war during which Israel has destroyed broad swaths of Gaza, killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and left more than 1 million people on the brink of starvation. It would not be an overstatement to say that one day has completely remade geopolitics, with far-reaching consequences for both international affairs and domestic American politics. SIX MONTHS ON … … ISRAEL IS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, writes AP’s Josef Federman, who reports that the initial goodwill for the nation has “been replaced by impatience and outrage as conditions in Gaza worsen” with no end in sight. … RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. ARE STRAINED. In the face of mounting criticism from his own party (more on that in a minute), Biden has grown increasingly impatient and disturbed by the growing civilian death toll — especially after the killing of seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen, the crisis food program founded by Washington-based chef JOSÉ ANDRÉS. That tension was evident in the recent phone call between Biden and Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. CNN’s MJ Lee has a good readout on the conversation, during which Biden “ticked through several things that he needed to see [Netanyahu] do immediately: open up the Erez crossing into northern Gaza and the port of Ashdod in southern Israel for humanitarian aid; significantly ramp up the supplies getting in through Kerem Shalom. A person familiar with the Thursday call paraphrased Netanyahu as responding: ‘Joe, we’re gonna do it.’” … U.S. LEVERAGE FACES ITS LIMITS. WaPo’s Karen DeYoung nicely captures the mood of the White House: “Frustrated and sometimes furious with a Netanyahu government that has often ignored its advice on how to conduct military operations in Gaza and publicly rejected U.S. visions for a permanent peace, the Biden administration now finds itself in a policy cul-de-sac from which there is no easy exit. … To much of the world, the U.S. backing for Israel’s war effort has left the administration morally compromised, even complicit in the destruction and death.” … DEMS WORRY THAT THE WAR HAS UNDERMINED BIDEN’S CASE AGAINST TRUMP. Our colleagues Adam Cancryn, Jonathan Lemire and Jennifer Haberkorn find widespread concern among Democrats — including some Biden advisers — that the war in Gaza has complicated the president’s image as a steady hand at the ship of state. Where once the Israel-Hamas war “represented the kind of global crisis that President Joe Biden told voters he is uniquely equipped to confront,” Biden’s allies now fret that “rather than bolstering his image as an experienced global leader, the president’s steadfast support for Israel’s offensive risked further complicating his argument that the election is a choice between his competent moral clarity and former President Donald Trump’s chaos.” … AND IMPORTANT BLOCS ARE INCREASINGLY LUKEWARM ON BIDEN. There are persistent worries “that the visceral images emerging from Gaza each day are denting enthusiasm among Biden voters,” Adam, Jonathan and Jennifer write. “Most visibly, the worsening humanitarian situation has angered an important part of Biden’s base — young voters, Arab and Muslim Americans and progressives — outraged by the U.S.’s inability to stop the unfolding horrors.” “Mr. Biden successfully avoided a messy primary fight, facing no viable opposition within his party,” write NYT’s Lisa Lerer, Reid Epstein and Katie Glueck. “But the Gaza conflict has stoked intraparty tensions nonetheless, raising Democratic concerns that a sustained movement protesting a war thousands of miles away could depress turnout at home in November.” As one 28-year-old Democrat tells the Times: “What he’s doing doesn’t feel like the lesser of two evils to me. It feels like something very evil.” Related reads:
Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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Explore the impact of the metaverse. | | | SUNDAY BEST … — Andrés on the Israel-Hamas war and his message to Biden, on ABC’s “This Week”: “This doesn’t seem anymore a war about defending Israel. This really, at this point, seems it’s a war against humanity itself. … Both truths can live in the same place. You can be a friend of Israel, and at the same time you can be telling your partner in the Middle East, ‘You cannot be conducting war in such a way. You cannot be destroying every building, every hospital, every school, every university. You cannot be destroying just the future for decades of more than 2 million Palestinians.’” — Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) on fears of Iranian retaliation for Israel’s strike in Damascus, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I think Americans in the area remain in danger. Remember, Iranian proxies have continued to attack U.S. troops in the area, again, with the Biden administration being slow to respond and ultimately responding to those attacks. … The consulate in Syria was a legitimate target for Israel because Iran certainly is the source of which all this is coming. At the same time, it still is very unwise, as we were trying to put pressure on Iran to keep them out of this conflict.” — Acting Labor Secretary JULIE SU on immigrants’ contributions to the economy and the Baltimore bridge collapse, on MSNBC’s “The Weekend”: “Immigrant workers have, throughout our history, done some of the most backbreaking work, some of the really difficult work. … Maryland is a reminder — what happened there — that workers who are too often invisible, literally and figuratively, deserve our protection.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
- “Israel Is Making the Same Mistake America Made in Iraq,” by David French for the NYT
- “What Would Society Look Like if Extreme Wealth Were Impossible?” by Christine Emba for The Atlantic
- “Congressional Brain Drain Is No Laughing Matter,” by Peter Weichlein for Newsweek
- “Let’s say it plainly: Fact-checking is not censorship,” by Angie Drobnic Holan for Poynter
- “Latinos are getting out of the ‘other’ box on the U.S. census,” by Julie Dowling for the L.A. Times
- “How to start winning the information war,” by Joe Lieberman and Gordon Humphrey for WaPo
- “I am proud to have spoken out against Putin’s crimes in Ukraine,” by Vladimir Kara-Murza for WaPo
- “The 19th Century Idea that Could Help Fix Big Tech,” by Ganesh Sitaraman for POLITICO Mag
- “Only a leader like Sadat can end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” by Max Boot for WaPo
- “A Study In Senate Cowardice,” by Jeffrey Goldberg for The Atlantic
- “We need a permanent solution for universal broadband access,” by Gigi Sohn and Greg Guice for The Verge
- “Why Republicans Will Regret Their Crusade Against Electric Cars,” by Mike Murphy in POLITICO Mag
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| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | | 
Donald Trump reportedly plans to urge Ukraine to cede territory Russia has invaded. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. WHAT KYIV IS READING: “Inside Donald Trump’s secret plan to end the Ukraine-Russia war,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Michael Birnbaum: “Trump’s proposal consists of pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia, according to people who discussed it with Trump or his advisers … Accepting Russian control over parts of Ukraine would expand the reach of [VLADIMIR] PUTIN’s dictatorship after what has been the biggest land war in Europe since World War II. Some of Trump’s supporters have been trying to persuade him against such an outcome. ‘I’ve been spending 100 percent of my time talking to Trump about Ukraine,’ said Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.).” 2. THE GENERATION GAP: Recent polling has shown an unexpected trend in the presidential election: Trump seems to be making massive gains with young voters (perhaps even overtaking Biden), while Biden is overperforming with old voters. Steve Shepard writes this morning that it’s hard to know whether the shift is real: Either the U.S. is experiencing “a massive electoral realignment” in both directions that “would have profound effects on the coalitions both campaigns are building” — or the polls are wrong, and struggling with major structural problems. At the very least, a variety of polling methods show broad discontent with Biden — and openness to third parties — among under-30 voters. One explanation for the senior vote: NYT’s Nate Cohn turns to “All in the Family” for a helpful corrective, writing that today’s seniors aren’t ARCHIE BUNKER — they’re MICHAEL and GLORIA. Baby boomers, one of the more liberal generations of the past century, haven’t grown very conservative as they aged, which helps explain why Biden might be doing better with former hippies than conservative Gen Xers and nihilistic Gen Zers. As the Times notes, the 65+ demographic on Election Day will include the likes of MADONNA and MAGIC JOHNSON. 3. BIG MONEY: “Key Democratic group pours $186 million in battle for House and preps for ‘trench warfare’ with GOP,” by CNN’s Manu Raju: “House Majority PAC, the super PAC linked to Democratic Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, is reserving $146 million in an initial round of TV ads and $40 million in digital advertising in nearly 60 media markets … The bulk of the money will be spent to flip seats in New York and California … But [MIKE SMITH] cited other pickup opportunities in Arizona, Michigan and even Montana.” 4. TRUMP’S ABORTION AMBIGUITY: Trump has indicated that he’ll finally get more specific about his policy stance on abortion this week. But as the president who appointed the justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, and the candidate trying to appeal to moderate voters, he has a tough tightrope to walk, Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly report. Some conservatives think that Trump backing a 15- or 16-week abortion ban could hit the sweet spot of a reasonable compromise. But Alice and Miranda write that Trump could also easily please nobody and anger everybody: It “appeals to many voters [but] is unlikely to neutralize the issue for Republicans.” Related long read: “After abortion attempts, two women now bound by child,” by WaPo’s Amanda Ferguson in Houston
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | 5. TAX DEAL NOT DEAD YET: “GOP opposition to child tax credit bill could be softening in Senate,” by WaPo’s Jacob Bogage: “Privately, some GOP lawmakers have said they’re increasingly willing to support the bill with small changes that the measure’s Democratic sponsor has already offered … but don’t want to outwardly break with a well-liked and powerful member of their caucus, [Senate Finance ranking member MIKE CRAPO (R-Idaho)] … Ultimately, public support for the bill hinges on Crapo’s stance in negotiations … The proposed larger refundable tax credits for more low-income parents could lift 400,000 children out of poverty.” 6. SWING-STATE DISPATCH: Outside of Pittsburgh, communities that once depended on steel and manufacturing have found new economic life in natural gas fracking — and these voters, many former Democrats, could give Trump a big boost, WSJ’s Aaron Zitner and Kris Maher report. Biden’s moves on the Keystone XL pipeline, liquefied natural gas exports and electric vehicles have turned off many energy industry workers. “The area’s reliance on energy jobs helps explain why Democrats look to be losing more voters than they have gained here despite a Biden agenda that’s pumping billions of dollars into infrastructure and manufacturing.” Even Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO warns in an interview with FT’s Jamie Smyth and Lauren Fedor that Biden’s LNG stance could hurt him in the state, saying it’s “critically important” that he reverse the pause on new approvals. 7. THE POLLUTED INFORMATION ECOSYSTEM: “Anonymous users are dominating right-wing discussions online. They also spread false information,” by AP’s Ali Swenson and Melissa Goldin: “The accounts enjoy a massive reach that is boosted by engagement algorithms, by social media companies greatly reducing or eliminating efforts to remove phony or harmful material, and by endorsements from high-profile figures such as [ELON] MUSK. … Many such internet personalities identify as patriotic citizen journalists uncovering real corruption. Yet their demonstrated ability to spread misinformation unchecked while disguising their true motives worries experts.” 8. RNC LATEST: After Trump’s takeover of the RNC roiled the organization and resulted in dozens of firings, the party has now actually rehired many of those staffers, Axios’ Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson report. That’s part of the rocky road that has marked Trump’s pivot to the general election. SUSIE WILES wasn’t happy about the chaos and negative press coverage that marked MICHAEL WHATLEY’s and LARA TRUMP’s ascension to the top of the RNC. “Some RNC staffers say the Trump team’s disruption of the committee was necessary.” Conventional wisdom: “Mass. GOP ousts veteran Republican power player Ron Kaufman from RNC post,” by Lisa Kashinsky … “In Milwaukee, Restaurants and Venues Worry of Seeing Limited R.N.C. Boost,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman 9. SOUNDS FAMILIAR: In a 2020 redux, significant Postal Service delays across the country are making some lawmakers worried about disruptions to mail voting in the election, NBC’s Shannon Pettypiece reports. At the end of 2023, only 70% of mail supposed to arrive in three to five days made it on time, compared to 81% in 2022. It’s thanks largely to a new system from Postmaster General LOUIS DeJOY that’s supposed to improve service but has so far hit some hiccups. The Postal Service says the situation is getting better, and that they’ll be able to make sure election mail gets delivered on time.
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Tim Sheehy is facing questions over strange stories about his gunshot wound. Sonia Sotomayor got backup from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Derrick Van Orden unloaded on Bob Good and Chip Roy. Don Lemon got married to Tim Malone. Donald Trump’s Trump Media stock isn’t catching fire with Hill Republicans. SPOTTED: Mike Allen and Jimmy Finkelstein having lunch at the Colony Hotel in Palm Beach yesterday. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at Juleanna Glover’s house at a party for Sasha Issenberg’s new book, “The Lie Detectives: In Search of a Playbook for Winning Elections in the Disinformation Age” ($18): Indira Lakshmanan, Ben LaBolt, Alex Burns and MJ Lee, Mark Salter, A’Lelia Bundles, Jessica Reis and Anthony DeAngelo, Denise Couture, Ben Neal, Ben Block and Janay Cody. — The University of Virginia celebrated the 25th anniversary of their Center for Politics yesterday, including a tribute to center director Larry Sabato. The gala dinner at Alumni Hall on UVa Grounds was hosted by UVa graduate Tiki Barber, and speakers included Liz Cheney, Martin Luther King III and Doug Wilder. SPOTTED: Chris and Emily Krebs, Dmitri Alperovitch and Maureen Hinman, Jen Easterly, Helen and Joe Milby, Rick Davis, Sarah Longwell, Tammy Haddad, David Earl and Kyle Kondik. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — May (Davis) Mailman, director of the Independent Women’s Law Center and a Trump White House alum, and David Mailman, VP of strategic initiatives at TravelCenters of America, welcomed Piper on Easter. She joins big sister Hadley. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Aaron Short HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) and Troy Nehls (R-Texas) … CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Noah Gray, Brad Parks and Cliff Hackel … POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman and Fernando Rodas … Cavalry’s Josh Holmes … Darren Samuelsohn … Annalise Myre of the White House … Meghan Green … DLCC’s Leslie Martes … Michael Meehan … former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels … Mike Abboud … HuffPost’s Paige Lavender … Maggie Severns … Giffords’ Brandi Porter … Katie Bailey … Michael Ciamarra of the Senate Appropriations GOP … Raymond Rodriguez of Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-Calif.) office … Richard Reyes-Gavilan … Tom Snedeker of the Herald Group ... Jessica Chasmar ... Eugene Kiely … Valerie Nelson … former Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.) … Dana Gray ... Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli … Mother Jones’ Jeremy Schulman … Rene Redwood … FWD.us’ Todd Schulte … Alan Hoffman … Bill McQuillen of Invariant … Sara Croom … Bridgestone’s Tom Lehner … John Caddock … Bill Bryant … former California Gov. Jerry Brown (86) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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