Saturday, April 20, 2024

How the push to unseat Johnson could unfold

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Apr 20, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

Presented by 

Business Roundtable

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

WHAT UNION JOE IS READING — “Tennessee workers at VW plant vote to unionize with UAW,” by The Tennessean’s Todd Price and Gary Estwick: “Volkswagen workers in Chattanooga overwhelmingly voted to join the United Auto Workers late Friday, giving the union a decisive foothold in the historically anti-union South. Nearly three quarters of the workers voted to support the UAW, according to the final results from the National Labor Review Board.” Watch UAW President SHAWN FAIN’s victory speech

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) speaks with reporters after a House Republican Conference meeting at the U.S. Capitol April 15, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Capitol Hill’s gossip du jour continues to center on whether Speaker Mike Johnson can keep his job. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

MASSIE RESISTANCE — It’s a working weekend in the House, where voting will start this afternoon around 12:45 p.m. on amendments and ultimately passage of the $95 billion foreign assistance package. The Senate — which worked late into the night to wrap up FISA reauthorization (more on that below) — is likely to return Tuesday, per Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER this morning, to finish work on the soon-to-be-House-passed bill helping Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Right now, however, Capitol Hill’s gossip du jour continues to center on whether Speaker MIKE JOHNSON can keep his job.

There’s been some speculation that Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) could file a privileged motion to vacate later today, teeing up a vote when the House returns from a weeklong recess.

But we caught up with her fellow rebel Rep. THOMAS MASSIE yesterday, and the Kentucky Republican laid out a different, slow-burn strategy.

Yesterday Rep. PAUL GOSAR (R-Ariz.) made the openly anti-Johnson camp into a trio, and Massie said he was confident their ranks will grow. Expect a number of conservatives, he said, to endorse the Johnson ouster over the coming days.

“This is like a ratchet — the pressure will just keep building,” he said. “The speaker’s overdrawn on political capital. He’s gonna go bankrupt after this vote.”

 Massie’s expectation is that by the time their numbers reach about a dozen, Johnson will see the writing on the wall and, just as former Speaker JOHN BOEHNER did nine years ago, resign on his own accord rather than face his own demise at the hands of his rank and file.

There are some gaping holes in this strategy, we’ll point out: For one, Johnson insists he won’t resign; Massie simply predicts that will change as the pressure builds. For another, there’s the expectation that he will have significant backup from House Democrats on any ouster vote.

In fact, our colleagues Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney report that if Democrats end up saving Johnson’s job, the speaker just might be able to hold on through the November election — a potential reset moment for the House GOP leadership fracas.

Massie’s response to the Dems-save-the-speaker scenario was simple: Republicans, he predicted, won’t stand it and will join the anti-Johnson movement in protest.

“Every Democrat who walks across the aisle to try to save the Republican speaker is going to cause two or three more Republicans to join the effort because, at that point, you’re … ceding control of the House of Representatives to a contingent of Democrats,” Massie said.

Notably, Massie wouldn’t say how long he’d give Johnson to exit on his own terms before forcing a vote. And remember that Greene — who isn’t exactly known for her patience — could reject this plan entirely and press the matter on the floor at any time once MAGA-world outrage reaches critical mass. (Note that STEVE BANNON joined the dump-Johnson bandwagon last night.)

 

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As with just about everything in Republican politics these days, it all might come down to DONALD TRUMP.

We reported last week that Trump was upset with Greene over her threats to throw the House into chaos with another speaker brawl, and Trump himself stood next to Johnson days later and said, “I stand with the speaker.”

But more recently, Trump appears to have stepped back into wait-and-see mode as those around him — including son DONALD TRUMP JR. — slam Johnson all over social media. That, Massie said, suggests the winds from Mar-a-Lago could shift at any time.

“My understanding is that Donald Trump is mostly neutral on this,” Massie said. “And just a couple of days ago, when asked about this issue, former President Trump said, ‘We’ll see what happens.’”

Related reads: “Seeking ‘the right side of history,’ Speaker Mike Johnson risks his job to deliver aid to Ukraine,” by AP’s Lisa Mascaro … “A Beleaguered Gentleman: Speaker Mike Johnson,” by RealClearPolitics’ Philip Wegmann … “Israel aid still dividing Democrats as vote nears,” by Anthony Adragna and Joe Gould

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — After a few tweaks and its inclusion in the foreign aid package, the bill to force a divestment or ban of TikTok suddenly looks closer to reality as soon as next week, Rebecca Kern reports. Though Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) may try to gum up the works, other Senate opposition has faded — and President JOE BIDEN’s signature could “mark an abrupt close to a frantic and high-powered pressure effort by the popular social media app to stop the bill.” A potential ban now looms as soon as next year.

TRUMP TRIAL LATEST — The last alternate jurors were seated yesterday, and now Trump’s criminal hush money trial is slated to kick off with opening arguments Monday, per the AP. In court yesterday, prosecutors and defense attorneys argued about whether Trump’s civil lawsuits can be brought up, Ben Feuerherd reports, with a particular focus on his attacks on women. Separately, Trump’s legal team lost another appeal yesterday to try to get the trial delayed.

Now the big question is how the jurors will react to both sides’ evidence and arguments in the coming weeks. Ben digs into the question of how just one stubborn juror could force a mistrial — perhaps the one who gets their news only from Truth Social and X? — with a look at when that scenario played out at TIMOTHY SHEA’s trial. NBC’s Lisa Rubin, Megan Lebowitz and Corky Siemaszko report that Trump’s team used a jury consultant to vet the potential jurors in real time this week.

Could there be a crazy surprise witness? Former STORMY DANIELS attorney MICHAEL AVENATTI tells the N.Y. Post’s Jon Levine that he’s been in touch with Trump’s legal team and is willing to testify on the former president’s behalf. It’s unclear what light the disgraced lawyer, now serving a 19-year sentence for an extortion scheme, might shed on the events at issue, but he’s singing Trump’s tune about a “targeted” and “politically motivated” prosecution.

In sad news, 37-year-old MAX AZZARELLO died after self-immolating outside the courthouse yesterday. NYT’s Michael Wilson and Tracey Tully report that his life had recently seemed to spiral into “a place of conspiracy theories and paranoia.”

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The House met this morning to take up the foreign aid bills, with votes on them and a border bill slated for 12:45 p.m.

The Senate is out.

At the White House

Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.

On the trail

Trump will have a rally this evening in Wilmington, North Carolina, as the StarNews previews.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) speaks during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol April 17, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer got Section 702 reauthorization through his chamber early this morning. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. SPY GAMES: Early this morning — after a midnight deadline had already come and gone — the Senate finally passed a two-year reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, per the AP. The final tally was 60-34, with not a vote to spare; opposition came from some Democrats and Republicans in nearly equal measure. Schumer managed to accelerate the process by striking a deal in exchange for votes on amendments, which didn’t pass. The White House said Biden will quickly sign it into law.

That will, for now, bring to an end to a lengthy debate between privacy hawks, who railed against warrantless surveillance that can sweep up Americans’ communications, and intel advocates, who called it a crucial national security tool. The reauthorization also followed a last-minute scramble, scooped by WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and Shane Harris, when two big communications providers told the U.S. government they’d stop providing information under Section 702 orders if the authority lapsed. Sources told the Post that “their loss would deal a significant blow to U.S. intelligence collection.”

2. WHAT DAVE McCORMICK DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: “This G.O.P. Senate Candidate Says He Grew Up on a Family Farm. Not Exactly,” by NYT’s Katie Glueck in Bloomsburg, Pennsylvania: “He has explicitly said and strongly implied that he grew up on a farm, claimed in 2022 that he had ‘started with nothing’ and that he ‘didn’t have anything,’ and he and his campaign have recently described his parents as schoolteachers. In fact, Mr. McCormick is the son of a well-regarded college president who later became chancellor of higher education systems in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. He largely grew up in the president’s sprawling hilltop residence, which students called the president’s mansion.”

McCormick responded in a statement that these were “hair-splitting, frivolous, cherry-picked distortions of what I have always said.”

3. BIG SETBACK IN WEST AFRICA: “Niger’s Eviction of U.S. Commandos, Drones Derails America’s Counterterror Strategy,” by WSJ’s Michael Phillips: “Niger has formally ordered the U.S. to withdraw counterterrorism troops and aerial drones from the country, driving the final nail in the coffin of American strategy to defeat a violent Islamist insurgency overrunning the heart of western Africa. The decision to expel American forces will likely accelerate contingency plans that would pivot U.S. strategy from trying to defeat al Qaeda and Islamic State where they are strongest to trying to keep militants from infiltrating neighboring countries.”

4. GOOD SIGN FOR THE GOP: Steve Shepard digs into the numbers from California’s top-two, all-party primaries and finds that in key congressional races — which could determine control of the House — Republicans largely outpaced Democrats. Those numbers typically track pretty closely with the final results in November. Dems’ big hope is that 2024 will look like 2012, when a competitive GOP presidential primary boosted Republican turnout in the spring but the results swung by several points to Democrats in the fall. But since 2012, the expansion of mail voting has changed the calculus, and could make it harder for Dems to make up ground.

5. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: After Israel’s strike on Iran was less intense than some had feared, the Biden administration is breathing a sigh of relief. U.S. officials are “increasingly hopeful that the confrontation between the two states will not immediately spark a regional escalation,” WaPo’s Yasmeen Abutaleb reports. The Israeli attack seemed largely intended to send a message, not to hurt people. Nonetheless, the Middle East has now crossed a new line, with Iran and Israel striking each other directly, which will pose a big challenge to the U.S., CNN’s Alex Marquardt and Katie Bo Lillis write. And if the expected de-escalation doesn’t happen, the U.S. is ill-prepared for another big war in the region, Reuters’ Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali report.

In a notable development, the U.S. said the U.N. World Food Program would step in to help deliver aid to Gaza that arrives via sea, AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer and Lolita Baldor report, which “could help resolve one of the major obstacles facing the U.S.-planned project.” The U.S. also imposed new sanctions yesterday on Israelis over settler violence in the West Bank, per Reuters.

6. A CONSEQUENTIAL QUIRK: “How R.F.K. Jr. Got on the Michigan Ballot, With Only Two Votes,” by NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien: “For 22 years, [DOUG] DERN, a bankruptcy lawyer with a small practice outside Detroit, has almost single-handedly kept the Natural Law Party on Michigan’s ballot. Each cycle, the party runs a handful of candidates in obscure state races … [ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. got onto the ballot] without having to gather a single signature, avoiding a costly and arduous organizing effort … Mr. Kennedy was formally nominated at a brief convention held Wednesday morning in Mr. Dern’s law office. The only two attendees were Mr. Dern and the party’s secretary.”

 

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7. WHERE TRUMP ISN’T GOING: “For Donald Trump, COVID has become a four-letter word,” by the Boston Globe’s Jim Puzzanghera in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania: “The deadly pandemic encompassed a little more than a fifth of Trump’s presidency, but you’d never know it from listening to him on the 2024 campaign trail. He rarely mentions COVID. When he does, it’s usually a brief comment that the pandemic derailed some of his presidential plans like an untimely speed bump. Then he’ll complain he doesn’t get enough credit for doing a great job on COVID — an assessment that most public health experts strongly dispute.”

8. HAPPENING TUESDAY: “Biden preps event tying Florida’s six-week abortion ban to the 2024 campaign,” by NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor: “At the event, which is scheduled to take place in Tampa about one week before the state law is set to go into effect, the president will talk about ‘the stakes of this election for reproductive freedom across the entire country.’”

9. WHAT MICHAEL REGAN IS UP TO: “E.P.A. Will Make Polluters Pay to Clean Up Two ‘Forever Chemicals,’” by NYT’s Coral Davenport: “The new rule announced on Friday empowers the government to force the many companies that manufacture or use [PFOA and PFOS] to monitor any releases into the environment and be responsible for cleaning them up. Those companies could face billions of dollars in liabilities.”

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies

A political cartoon is pictured.

Adam Zyglis - Buffalo News

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“‘Did Something Happen to Mom When She Was Young?’” by Jessica Bateman in POLITICO Magazine: “The hidden history of the Cold War adoption complex.”

“Trump’s Delayed Reckoning,” by Sean Wilentz in the N.Y. Review of Books: “The Supreme Court has not yet decided whether to grant Donald Trump criminal immunity — but its handling of the case has already worked in his favor.”

“The cloud under the sea,” by The Verge’s Josh Dzieza: “This is the story of the people who repair the world’s most important infrastructure.”

“They Experimented on Themselves in Secret. What They Discovered Helped Win a War,” by Rachel Lance in Wired: “The untold, top-secret story of the British researchers who found the key to keeping humans alive underwater — and helped make D-Day a success.”

“They quit liberal public schools. Now they teach kids to be anti-‘woke,’” by WaPo’s Hannah Natanson in Southwest Florida

“From a Tiny Island in Maine, He Serves Up Fresh Media Gossip,” by NYT’s Steven Kurutz on Peaks Island: “Rusty Foster could never live in New York. But his hit newsletter, Today in Tabs, is an enduring obsession of the city’s media class.”

“The Life and Death of Hollywood,” by Daniel Bessner in Harper’s: “Film and television writers face an existential threat.”

“How I Did It: Judith Regan Remembers the Day O.J. Simpson (Almost) Confessed: In an exclusive for The Hollywood Reporter, the A-list book editor writes about her harrowing five-hour, on-camera conversation with Simpson in 2006, so controversial it didn’t make it onto the airwaves until 2018 (and in the meantime, nearly destroyed her career).”

“There Are Plenty of Power Publicists. But Only One Works for Taylor Swift,” by Allie Jones in the WSJ Magazine: “From ‘1989’ through ‘The Tortured Poets Department,’ she has fiercely guarded Swift’s reputation: ‘The devil works hard, but Tree Paine works harder.’”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Andrew Giuliani was subpoenaed in a financial investigation of his father.

Devin Nunes is facing a big moment at Truth Social.

Susan Collins cast her milestone 9,000th vote in a row.

Graydon Carter is opening a newsstand.

Madeleine Albright’s private collection is going up for auction next month.

MEDIA MOVE — Shauneen Miranda will be a reporter in States Newsroom’s Washington bureau. She previously was a breaking news reporter at Axios.

TRANSITIONS — Tonya Williams is now chief of staff to Deputy Commerce Secretary Don Graves. She is a SoftBank and Biden alum. … Philip Scranage is joining AES to lead its clean energy public policy efforts on wind, solar, energy storage and more. He previously held multiple roles for Virginia state Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell.

WEDDING — Ricky Gill, an attorney, real estate developer, former California congressional candidate and Trump administration alum, and Annie Shergill, a gastroenterology fellow at Larkin Community Hospital in Miami, got married recently at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables, Florida. They were married in a traditional Sikh ceremony and then danced the night away to Latin beats with their guests, many of whom were Trump administration alumni. PicSPOTTED: Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) and Julia Nesheiwat, Miguel Correa, Eddie Vasquez, Andrew LaBruna, Ron Nussle, Marc Moyer, Nels Nordquist and DJ Bernstein.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NSC’s Brett McGurk … NBC’s Carol Lee … Michigan AG Dana Nessel … WSJ’s Molly Ball … POLITICO’s Sarah Ferris, David Siders, Shar Uddin and Jose RamirezEvan Smith … Fox News’ Jennifer GriffinColin Reed of South & Hill Strategies … Lee Moak … Floodlight’s Emily HoldenKyle FeldscherEmily RodriguezLee FerranJosh DelaneyLiz Parsons Tess Whittlesey of Sen. Alex Padilla’s (D-Calif.) office … Lyft’s Heather FosterMarc Rotenberg of the Center for AI and Digital Policy … ​​Conner Swanson of the House Budget GOP … Ashley WoolheaterEthan Susseles … Avisa Partners’ Eric Bovim … Penta’s Melissa MansonPatrick Collins … former Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) … Mary Springer … former Reps. Lee Hamilton (D-Ind.) (93) and Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) … Lindsey MaskZachary Baum … Rational 360’s Jay HauckLeon HarrisDenise GitshamFrank Lizza Sr.

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

NBC “Meet the Press”: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy … Doris Kearns Goodwin … Steve Kornacki with a new NBC poll. Panel: Cornell Belcher, Matt Gorman and Andrea Mitchell.

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) … Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) … Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) … Polish President Andrzej Duda.

ABC “This Week”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) … Stephen Breyer. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Rachael Bade and Jonathan Martin.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) … Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). Panel: Kevin Roberts, Guy Benson, Richard Fowler and Francesca Chambers. Legal panel: Jonathan Turley and Tom Dupree.

CNN “State of the Union”: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker … South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. Panel: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), Kate Bedingfield, Scott Jennings and Jamal Simmons.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro … Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) … David Sanger.

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: California Gov. Gavin Newsom … John Legend.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

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From lifesaving medical devices to everyday household products, U.S. companies and the hardworking Americans they employ have developed many of the world’s most important goods and services. These innovations were made possible by a competitive, pro-growth tax system that spurred robust domestic investment.

Unfortunately, key tax policies have expired or are being phased out, making it more difficult for U.S. businesses to invest at home, create American jobs and compete globally. The House has passed legislation to stop these tax increases on U.S. job creators. Now, it’s up to the Senate to act.

It’s time to support American innovation, businesses and workers. It’s time to pass the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act. Learn more.

 
 

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