| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | Presented by ExxonMobil | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
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The task before President Joe Biden for tonight's State of the Union verges on existential in its importance. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THINK INSIDE THE BOX — The White House this morning has revealed the guests who’ll be sitting alongside first lady JILL BIDEN at tonight’s State of the Union speech. On the list: LATORYA BEASLEY, an Alabaman whose was awaiting an embryo transfer as part of her in vitro fertilization treatment when her procedure was abruptly canceled due to the state Supreme Court’s ruling effectively barring the practice … United Auto Workers President SHAWN FAIN … KATE COX, a Texas mother of two who had to travel out of state to receive an abortion … Swedish PM (and new NATO ally) ULF KRISTERSSON … and MARIA SHRIVER, the health care advocate (and ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s first cousin). See the full list ZIENTS PREVIEWS SOTU — The pageantry of a State of the Union speech has a certain comfortable familiarity. The jam-packed House chamber. The standing ovation as the president enters. The members stunting for the cameras. The laundry list of policy proposals. Even the risk of a heckling. It is a speech whose importance is vastly overrated, as our colleague Adam Cancryn has noted. Except this year. The stakes for President JOE BIDEN tonight verge on existential as his reelection effort trails DONALD TRUMP in almost every meaningful poll, with voters repeatedly and loudly voicing their concerns about Biden’s age as the general election campaign begins in earnest. One man who’s intimately aware is White House chief of staff JEFF ZIENTS. Playbook called him yesterday to talk through what to expect. He freely admits that the stakes for the president are high. “States of the Union are big moments,” Zients told Playbook. “You could argue that this is a particularly big moment, and I think there’s no one better at handling high stakes than President Biden.” Rather than downplay the expectations, Zients is leaning into them. “You’re going to see a very energized president,” he said. “This is a big moment. And this president rises to those big moments.” WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE HAS PLANNED: Last week, we spoke with JIM MESSINA, the political strategist who managed BARACK OBAMA’s 2012 reelection campaign. He told us that Biden needed to (1) show voters that he’s doing the job (especially to allay concerns about his age), (2) tell voters what he’s doing to make their lives better and (3) draw a contrast with the other side to make it a referendum on Trump, not on Biden. It seems like the White House is reading from the same hymn sheet. “You’ll hear a lot about tax fairness and making sure the wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share,” Zients told Playbook, previewing the president’s proactive agenda in tonight’s speech. “We’ve made big progress on lowering costs, fighting inflation. But at the same time, we need to do more. Costs [are] still too high in some areas. So you’re going to see the president focus on continuing to lower the cost of prescription drugs, having $35 insulin for everyone, … invest[ing] in areas like child care, health care, elder care, paid family leave, and also continue the progress on reducing and eliminating student debt.” Then, of course, there’s the matter of framing the choice for voters: “It’s going to be a stark contrast to some Republicans’ visions,” Zients said. The president “will call for restoring Roe v. Wade,” he said — a call that seems squarely aimed at moderate voters throughout the nation who’ve repeatedly rejected the right’s abortion bans at the ballot box and continue to express outrage at the myriad ways the fight has seeped into other areas (as in Alabama’s headline-grabbing ruling effectively banning IVF as practiced in America). Looming over this will be a man whose name will go unmentioned tonight: Trump. We asked Zients how they intend to draw out the differences without turning the SOTU into a campaign speech. He said that they’ll highlight Biden’s “beliefs in basic freedoms and democracy, his vision for the future in terms of policy, in terms of tax fairness, in terms of investing in America, leading the world.” And he’ll seek to lay blame for the border crisis at the feet of congressional Republicans. “What we focus on is continuing to govern and to encourage Congress to legislate in areas like keeping the government open, … like national security supplemental and also the border and giving the border the resources we need to control the border,” Zients said. “You’ll see the president fighting back, in certain areas, like, the Republican House’s refusal to take up the bipartisan national security bill. The president feels there’s real urgency there.” The big picture, said Zients, is this: “This year is about the inflection point we are facing. An unprecedented moment where we will decide if we will keep being a country of possibilities or one that clings to the past. The president will lay out the contrast of visions in stark terms. Throughout periods of our history, Americans have answered the call to keep moving towards a more perfect union. The president will make the strong case to keep that trajectory going.” THREE MORE NEWSY TIDBITS … 1. On how Biden will address the war in Gaza: “You can expect the president to address this head-on,” Zients told us. “The president is working hour by hour to negotiate an immediate and sustained cease-fire in Gaza over a period of at least six weeks as part of a deal that would release hostages, and get significantly more humanitarian aid in. And he wants enduring peace in the region so that Palestinians and Israelis can live with security, dignity in two states — something he is actively working towards every day.” 2. On whether the Cabinet and senior White House staff will remain through Jan. 20: “Yes. We’ve had extraordinary retention and people who are committed to this president. So, yes, we have the team in place.” 3. What comes after the SOTU: “You’re going to see the president on the road highlighting different pieces of his vision around the country. His Cabinet — on the road doing the same. His White House team — digitally supporting it. This is a really important moment tomorrow night. But telling the American people about his vision and his accomplishments is in the days and weeks and months to come.” Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: At ExxonMobil, we’ve captured more CO2 than any other company, so we have the expertise to help some of the most carbon-intensive sectors. With more than 30 years' experience, we’re a global leader in carbon capture and storage. Now, we’re advancing projects around the world, including in Louisiana and Texas, to help us and our customers reduce emissions. Let’s deliver. | | | EXCLUSIVE: BARRASSO SAYS IT’S OVER — In the race for the No. 2 spot in the Senate GOP leadership, aides to Sen. JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.) tell Playbook that “after speaking with nearly all of his colleagues, John has received commitments from a majority of the Republican Conference for Whip.” Barrasso — currently the GOP conference chair and previously rumored as a possible successor to outgoing Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL — is unopposed but plans to continue meeting with senators and asking for input on the direction of the conference, we’re told. “He will work for every vote,” his team says. SETTLE IN — Meanwhile, the race between Sens. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) and potentially others to succeed McConnell could stretch on for a long time — with some senators possibly waiting to see the landscape after Election Day, Burgess Everett reports. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: GALLEGO’S MONEY BOMB — In the 24 hours after Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) announced she wouldn’t run for reelection, Democratic Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO’s campaign raised $1 million from 24,000 donations.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: The world needs ways to reduce carbon emissions. At ExxonMobil, we’re working on solutions in our own operations – like carbon capture and clean energy from hydrogen – that could also help in other industries like manufacturing, commercial transportation and power generation, too. Helping deliver heavy industry with low emissions. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. Fed Chair JEROME POWELL will testify before the Banking Committee at 9:40 a.m. The House will meet at 10 a.m. and at noon will take up multiple bills, including the Laken Riley Act, with votes at 1:30 p.m. The Foreign Affairs Committee will mark up a resolution to recommend finding Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN in contempt of Congress at 10 a.m. JORDAN PETERSON will testify before the Judiciary subcommittee on the “weaponization” of government at 10 a.m. 3 things to watch …
- The big 339-85 House vote yesterday on the first tranche of fiscal 2024 appropriations augurs well for Senate passage, which could happen as soon as today if leaders can strike an amendment deal with conservatives who are mainly upset about the bill’s $12.7 billion in earmarks. One thing those rabble-rousers will be watching: how would-be GOP leaders Cornyn and Thune end up voting on the package. More on the earmarks from BGOV’s Jack Fitzgerald
- There’s a date for a possible HUNTER BIDEN hearing — March 20 — according to an invite sent yesterday by the House Oversight Committee. Biden’s lawyers have yet to respond, but there’s a catch that might keep the first son away despite his prior insistence on a public hearing: He would be appearing alongside former business associates TONY BOBULINSKI, DEVON ARCHER and JASON GALANIS, not solo.
- The House Budget Committee meets at 10 a.m. to markup a budget resolution for fiscal 2025 — one that Republicans say will “reverse the curse” of federal debt by rolling back spending. Democrats, of course, see it differently: White House spokesperson ANDREW BATES said the GOP blueprint “sells [middle class] families out to rich special interests” and that on a day where Biden will “stress to the country whose side he’s on; congressional Republicans are on track to do the same.”
At the White House Biden has one big thing on his schedule: the State of the Union. VP KAMALA HARRIS will have a pre-SOTU briefing with digital news outlets and creators at 1:55 p.m., and later will preside over the speech. | | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
|  It remains to be seen which names might actually bubble to the top for the No Labels third-party presidential ticket. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images | SPOILER ALERT — At a pivotal virtual meeting tomorrow, No Labels members are expected to vote to jump into the presidential race — though the group won’t yet select its ticket, AP’s Thomas Beaumont and Steve Peoples report. That could be a major shakeup for the 2024 campaign, with somewhat unpredictable ramifications for Biden and Trump. Though it’s not a done deal, the group’s various regional chapters are reportedly excited about launching a bid. At the same time, the New Leaders ’24 super PAC affiliated with No Labels — which might be the driving force behind the campaign — is soliciting small-dollar donations, Axios’ Hans Nichols reports. It remains to be seen which names might actually bubble to the top for the No Labels ticket. Several prominent contenders are already off the table: The group acknowledged yesterday that NIKKI HALEY seems like another non-starter. Exclusive new polling: In the ongoing cold war between No Labels and Third Way, we have a survey from the moderate Democratic group arguing that even a theoretical Haley-DEAN PHILLIPS ticket (two of the biggest names that have been in the conversation) would fall way short. Their poll finds Haley/Phillips getting 9% for fourth place and damaging Biden more than Trump. Full results Strategy shift?: Notably, No Labels is no longer saying they’re trying to get on the ballot in all 50 states, as they’ve long touted as their ambition for 2024 (and which No Labels still currently says on their website), Daniel Lippman writes in. In an op-ed in the Dallas Morning News last week, No Labels honcho NANCY JACOBSON wrote, “We have a strategy to get on the majority of state ballots for an independent presidential ticket.” A No Labels spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment on the change. More top reads:
CONGRESS CHAYA RAICHIK GETS RESULTS — After Libs of TikTok attacked Philadelphia’s LGBTQ-focused William Way Community Center for renting its space for BDSM parties, Congress is slashing federal funding for the organization. Pennsylvania’s Democratic senators, BOB CASEY and JOHN FETTERMAN, both pulled their support — but with different explanations, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso and Aliya Schneider report. Casey’s office said congressional spending warranted higher scrutiny, while Fetterman said he did so just to defuse GOP attacks. FOREGONE CONCLUSION — “Republicans’ Dilemma on Mayorkas Impeachment: When to Take the Loss,” by NYT’s Luke Broadwater PAGING JOHN CORNYN — McConnell said the idea of term limits for Senate GOP leadership was “totally inappropriate.” NOT THERE YET — “Senate finance leaders squabble over tax package proposals,” by Brian Faler: “The back-and-forth suggests an agreement to end what’s become a protracted dispute over the legislation is not imminent.” MORE POLITICS
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Republican Mark Harris won the GOP nomination for a House race in North Carolina. | Chuck Burton/AP Photo | THE LONG TAIL OF SUPER TUESDAY — We got some more key race calls as results continued to roll in from this week’s primaries around the country:
- MARK HARRIS won the GOP nomination for a House race in North Carolina and will almost certainly, finally, be heading to Congress after his 2018 victory was junked over alleged voter fraud, per Ally Mutnick.
- DAVE MIN beat JOANNA WEISS to emerge as the Democrat running in November to keep Rep. KATIE PORTER’s California seat blue, per Melanie Mason.
- CATHERINE TRUITT, the incumbent North Carolina public schools chief, was upset in the GOP primary by a challenger to her right, per AP’s Gary Robertson.
And the campaign dynamics for some crucial races are quickly snapping into focus after Tuesday. With controversial North Carolina Lt. Gov. MARK ROBINSON newly crowned the GOP nominee for governor, you can get ready for eight months of oppo drops like this: HuffPost’s Jennifer Bendery reports that in 2020, Robinson said, “I absolutely want to go back to the America where women couldn’t vote,” compared to one with lynchings of Black people. (Yes, there’s video.) In Texas, where Democratic Rep. COLIN ALLRED is now officially the nominee to challenge GOP Sen. TED CRUZ, the senator’s team and outside allies are taking nothing for granted — especially after he just barely held on in 2018, WaPo’s Patrick Svitek reports. The Club for Growth will spend $10 million at least on the race. And they want to link Allred to Biden early, learning from their mistakes against BETO O’ROURKE. KNOWING THE NSSF — “As the NRA struggles, the gun lobby has a new leader in D.C.,” by NBC’s Suzy Khimm
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil:   | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE MARK YOUR CALENDARS — “Supreme Court sets argument date in Trump immunity case for April 25,” by CNN’s John Fritze THE PLOT TO OVERTURN THE ELECTION — “Arizona investigators issue grand jury subpoenas as state’s 2020 Trump election probe accelerates,” by Betsy Woodruff Swan and Kyle Cheney: It’s “a sign that Attorney General KRIS MAYES, a Democrat, is nearing a decision on whether to charge Trump’s allies in the state, including GOP activists who falsely posed as presidential electors.” MIGHT NEED A NAME CHANGE — “Federal judge orders minority-business agency opened to all races,” by WaPo’s Julian Mark and Taylor Telford AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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Despite urging from the Biden administration, cease-fire and hostage deal talks in the Israel-Hamas war have reached a standstill. | Nathan Howard/Getty Images | BIDEN’S ISRAEL TWO-STEP — Despite the Biden administration and other interlocutors’ push for a cease-fire and hostage release deal in the Israel-Hamas war, talks have reached a standstill and look unlikely to produce a pre-Ramadan breakthrough, NYT’s Ronen Bergman, Edward Wong and Julian Barnes report. The flip side of Biden’s push to stop the bloodshed is that the U.S. hasn’t stopped sending huge amounts of weapons to Israel — totaling more than 100 sales since the war began, WaPo’s John Hudson scooped. Only two of them were publicized, while the administration managed to obscure the rest by keeping them under the thresholds for required disclosure. They add up to “a massive transfer of firepower” without which some experts say Israel’s sustained campaign in Gaza would be impossible. The arms are at odds with growing U.S. concerns about the 30,000 Palestinians killed. One thing going better for the U.S. in the Middle East: There haven’t been any Iranian proxy attacks on American troops in Iraq, Jordan and Syria for a full month now, Lara Seligman reports. BEYOND THE BELTWAY A FAR CRY FROM 2020 — “‘Saving the Democratic Party from itself’: Blue cities get tough on crime,” by Paul Demko, Jeremy White and Jason Beeferman: “San Francisco, Washington and New York City are among the municipalities where policymakers are backing harsher policies.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Daniel Rodimer, who almost was elected to Congress in 2020, is now wanted for murder. Ilhan Omar is sympathetic to “uncommitted” voters, but she herself didn’t vote in Minnesota’s Democratic primary, she told Nick Wu. Christian Ziegler won’t be charged with rape. Jack Dorsey is fighting with his board over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Zoe Lofgren has left the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Ritchie Torres is founding the Clubhouse Caucus to advocate for clubhouses to support people with severe mental illness. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Va. lawmakers to remove arena from budget, blocking Youngkin’s best shot for it,” by WaPo’s Gregory S. Schneider and Laura Vozzella OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a Power to the Patients event supporting health care price transparency, with a special performance by the Foo Fighters, at the Anthem on Tuesday night: Fat Joe, Chuck D, Valerie June, Martin Schoeller, Cynthia Fisher, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Reps. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Greg Casar (D-Texas), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.), Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.), Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas), André Carson (D-Ind.), Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) and Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.). — SPOTTED at the Gala for American Statecraft at the Kimpton Monaco Hotel last night, hosted by American Moment and with a keynote by David Sacks: Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Jim DeMint, Mark Meadows, Riley Moore, Blake Masters, Stephen Miller, Theo Wold, Ed Corrigan, Rachel Bovard, Yoram Hazony, Will Ruger and Aaron Reitz. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — MissionWired is elevating Ambika Subramanyam to president of the agency and Bob Albrecht to chief of marketing and brand. Subramanyam previously was chief product officer, and Albrecht was COO. TRANSITIONS — Maggie Moran is the new campaign manager for Tammy Murphy’s New Jersey Senate bid, Daniel Han reports. She previously worked at Kivvit and managed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s 2018 reelect. … Anna Hughes is now VP of comms at the U.S. Council for International Business. She is a former head of policy comms at Twitter. ENGAGED — Korosh Yazdanpanah, a consultant, and Meaghan Byrne, a director at the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum and a Matt Cartwright and Bonnie Watson Coleman alum, got engaged on Saturday at the top of Spruce Peak on the Long Trail in Stowe, Vermont. He designed a custom ring with Kurdish paisleys on the side. They met at The Green Zone in Adams Morgan. Pic ... Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.) … Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar … Kristan King Nevins … Josh Holly … Guy Benson … Mike Watson … Noreen Nielsen … DNC’s Ryan Thomas … Savannah Behrmann … Carol Danko … Elad Strohmayer … Alan Neuhauser … Matt Higginson … former Reps. Brian Baird (D-Wash.) and Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) … Anne Farris Rosen … Myron Belkind … Nate Evans … Eliza VanZoeren … Matt Handverger ... Matt Glassman … Mark Schuermann … Anthony Bellotti … Joe Fadness of Michael Best Strategies … BCW’s Katie Nerantzis … Sam Markstein of the Republican Jewish Coalition … American Conservation Coalition’s Zack Abnet … … Jordan Colvin … FDA’s Gretchen Opper Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from ExxonMobil: Heavy industry accounts for nearly 30% of global carbon emissions. For these businesses, setting and achieving meaningful carbon-reduction goals can be complex. At ExxonMobil, we’ve been working on reducing our own carbon emissions. At our Baytown plant, one of the world’s largest integrated refining and petrochemical operations, we’re working to deploy hydrogen power and carbon capture to reduce emissions by up to 30%. Now, we’re taking solutions like these to others in heavy industry. Using our technologies, we can help these businesses create a plan to make similar reductions. And together, we can deliver a lower-emissions future. Let’s deliver. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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