Friday, February 16, 2024

🎼The Music Isn’t Over Yet, but Grab a Seat Now

Good morning. GDP rose by 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Personal consumption...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. GDP rose by 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 3.8 percent. That's leaving a gap. And it builds on prior gaps in prior quarters. For now, the gap is being fueled by a drawdown in savings and a rise in credit card debt.

These trends don't last forever, and it's possible that the second half of the year could see a bigger economic slowdown as consumers start to tighten their belts.

For now, the market is due for a small seasonal pullback, followed by a rally into the summer. If there are further cracks in the credit market, the next move after that may be lower, not higher.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 38,773.12 +0.91%
S&P 5,029.73 +0.58%
NASDAQ 15,906.17 +0.30%
*As of market close
Markets continued higher on Thursday, extending Wednesday's gains.
Oil rose 2.0 percent, closing at $78.17 per barrel.
Gold rallied 0.6 percent, ending at $2,016 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with bitcoin at $51,773 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Watch this Key Metric to Determine a Company's Future
Many companies still operate in the real world, where they have to manufacture and ship out physical goods. That can include anything from raw commodities to advanced computer chips.

Each of these companies will look at its inventories to gauge their success. Rising inventories likely means slowing sales, and in turn, slowing revenues. Declining inventories can signal the opposite, that sales are on the rise, and maybe even that raising prices might be a good idea.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Rockwell Automation (ROK)
Blake Moret, President and CEO of Rockwell Automation (ROK), recently bought 3,500 shares. The buy increased his stake by 5 percent, and came to a total cost of $992,758.

This marks the first insider buy since May 2022. Otherwise, company insiders, particularly executives, have been regular sellers of shares. Most of those sales have occurred following the exercise of stock options.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Option Activity: Lyft (LYFT)
Ride-sharing company Lyft (LYFT) soared 35 percent on Wednesday after the company reported a major earnings beat. One trader is betting that shares will pull back from that extreme move in the coming months.

That's based on the April $16 puts. With 62 days until expiration, 24,164 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 356, for a 68-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.40 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.87 Percent

30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit 6.87 percent this week, a slight increase from last week's 6.8 percent. Refinance applications dropped 2 percent compared to last week, but are still up 12 percent compared to the same week a year ago. Applications for purchasing a home dropped 3 percent compared to last week, and are down 12 percent compared to the same week last year.
Corporate Bond Funds Rising

Funds that own baskets of corporate debt are on the rise, as investors anticipate lower interest rates later in the year. The spread between corporate debt and risk-free U.S. Treasuries is narrowing, but these funds still offer a higher yield and further upside when rates get cut.
Berkshire Hathaway Reduces Apple Stake

Conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) has reduced its position in shares of Apple (AAPL). The company sold about 1 percent of its position, the first time it's made a change to its Apple stake in years, and the first decrease. The move comes as Apple dominates Berkshire's stock portfolio following a massive rally in the past decade.
Delta Paying $1.4 Billion in Profit Sharing

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is paying employees $1.4 billion as part of a profit sharing program. That's more than double what it paid employees last year. The company's 100,000 employees will receive bonuses worth about 10 percent of their annual salary.
SpaceX To De-Orbit 100 Starlink Satellites

Satellite operator SpaceX will shut down 100 of its Starlink satellites. The company has identified a flaw impacting the first-generation satellites. The company will deactivate the affected satellites, but does not expect the shutdown to impact the overall Starlink network.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
ZBRA 11.52%
TRIP 10.348%
CBRE 9.092%
WFC 7.552%
EPAM 7.525%
BOTTOM
WST 13.545%
ROL 6.034%
DE 5.611%
PARA 5.118%
VTR 3.552%

Quote of the Day
The market was overbought from a variety of readings, but is yet to be now in the oversold camp. There is still some vulnerability in the near term for some corrective action, in my opinion, but I certainly don't think that we are headed for a decline in excess of 10%. I think it's a more corrective pullback that is needed before we can continue our upward climb.
- Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, on the market's big drop this week, which took the market out of overbought territory, but still looking bullish. Seasonally, stocks tend to decline from late February to late March.

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