The key voting demographic

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Feb 08, 2024 View in browser   By Emily Ngo, Jeff Coltin and Nick Reisman Presented by With help from Irie Sentner Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi leads Republican nominee Mazi Pilip by a slim margin. | Courtesy of Tom Suozzi campaign NEW YORK MINUTE: Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi led Republican nominee Mazi Pilip by a slim four points in the battleground Long Island special election, according to a Newsday/Siena College poll released this morning. Suozzi’s edge was equivalent to the survey’s 4.2-point margin of error. The former representative had 48 percent support among likely voters compared to 44 percent for Pilip, a Nassau County legislator. About 7 percent of voters were undecided in the bellwether race that is expected Tuesday to set the tone in a critical election year where control of the House and the presidency is at stake. The latest poll revealing a statistical dead heat comes on the morning of the race’s only debate. The town hall-style face-off between Pilip and Suozzi will air at 8:30 p.m. on News 12. It will be moderated by “Power & Politics” host Rich Barrabi. — Emily Ngo AAPI GOTV: Every vote is crucial in the high-stakes, toss-up race to replace George Santos. And the sizable Asian American electorate in the Nassau County and Queens district could be a trove for both Suozzi and Pilip. Suozzi’s outreach ahead of the Tuesday special election has included Lunar New Year events, an AAPI Day of Action, a Chinese language news media roundtable and lots and lots of food — often with Rep. Grace Meng, a Queens Democrat, at his side. “Traditionally underrepresented voters in this district can be the margin of victory,” Meng told Playbook. “We have gathered Tom with Asian voters who are Democrat, Republican and independent so that they could ask him the tough questions. … Many of them are first-time voters, and they like what they’re hearing.” But Pilip has in her corner some ardent South Asian backers who previously voted for Suozzi. “I am doing nothing else until I see her get elected,” Bobby Kumar Kalotee, a Nassau County organizer, told Playbook. “I’m working 24/7, not 9 to 5, not 8 to 5, 24/7.” Kalotee, whom Nassau GOP chair Joe Cairo commended from the stage at a recent Pilip rally, has been canvassing for the Republican nominee at temples and gurudwaras. The feedback he hears? “First, they say, OK, she’s an immigrant. She understands immigrants. ... Second, they believe that she stands for law and order,” he said. About 18 percent of the electorate is Asian American, according to engagement group APIAVote. But they shouldn’t be expected to vote as a bloc. “Some people when they approach AAPI outreach, they just think Asian voters and that’s it,” Queens organizer Tanbir Chowdhury told Playbook. “They don’t think about eastern Asian, South Asian and then, within the South Asian community, subcultures like Muslim, Hindu.” Chowdhury, who is pulling for Suozzi, said his team has contacted more than 15,000 South Asians in the district and will spend Sunday canvassing Muslim voters. Suozzi’s coalition also includes City Councilmembers Linda Lee, Sandra Ung and Shekar Krishnan and Assemblymember Grace Lee. Pilip, meanwhile, is endorsed by the politically conservative Asian Wave Alliance, which lists immigration, crime and affordability as its top concerns. At a news conference Wednesday marking Pilip’s endorsement by the National Border Patrol Council, supporter George Paul noted something in his biography that Pilip has stressed in hers: He immigrated to the United States legally. And also like Pilip, Paul is an enrolled Democrat who is more on board with Republican policies. “The South Asian community used to vote Democrat,” he said. “A lot of people that I’m speaking with, especially here in New York City, in this Queens area, they are going to be voting Republican because of the law-and-order issue, the open-border issue.” Meng, the first and only Asian American in New York’s House delegation, sought to underscore that the GOP is the party of Donald Trump. “The Republican Party is acting like they’re suddenly interested in the Asian electorate,” she said, “but this is the party whose leader put a target on our backs, using terms like ‘kung flu’ and ‘China virus.’” — Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin HAPPY THURSDAY: Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.   A message from Instagram: Parents should be able to decide which apps are right for their teens. According to a new poll by Morning Consult conducted in November 2023, more than 75% of parents believe teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps without parental permission.1 Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done. Learn more.   WHERE’S KATHY? Being interviewed on CNN This Morning and making an economic development announcement in White Plains. WHERE’S ERIC? Hosting a reception to celebrate the record number of minority- and women-owned business enterprise contracts awarded under his administration and meeting with Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana. QUOTE OF THE DAY: “It’s amazing to me how much the rest of the world looks to us, the United States — not to Joe Biden — the United States.” — President Joe Biden, referencing leadership in combating climate change at a Manhattan fundraiser. ABOVE THE FOLD Sen. Mike Gianaris and Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani are seeking $90 million to boost MTA bus options citywide. | Hans Pennink/AP BUS MUST: Congestion pricing tolls in Manhattan’s designated central business district are coming. Two state lawmakers want more transit options, too. Sen. Mike Gianaris and Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, both Queens Democrats, are seeking $90 million to boost MTA bus options citywide. The proposal includes $45 million to expand free bus service lines from five to 15 in all boroughs. An additional $45 million would be set aside for strengthening existing bus service and reliability. The thinking: Not everyone will want to pay the tolls, so an expansion of mass transit options is needed. If approved, the move would create cheaper alternatives for people who need to get below 60th Street. The lawmakers want to include the provision in the Senate and Assembly budget proposals, which are expected to be released in the coming weeks. “We can all agree there’s too many cars in Manhattan, and we want to move people out of cars into transit,” Gianaris told Playbook. “But if we don’t give them a viable option, we’re just spinning our wheels, literally.” The proposal is modeled, in part, after the international cities that have put congestion pricing tolls in place, including London and Stockholm. There’s also the hope that expanded bus service will lead to more people driving less. “I think it applies to every New Yorker,” Mamdani said. “It applies to the New Yorker sitting on the slowest buses in the nation; it applies to the New Yorker who hasn’t taken mass transit yet.” — Nick Reisman CITY HALL: THE LATEST Mayor Eric Adams' $109.4 billion spending plan appeared balanced on paper. In reality, it was in the red, according to a report out today. | Peter K. Afriyie/AP NUMBERS GAME: A new report released today by the Citizens Budget Commission shows Mayor Eric Adams omitted $3.6 billion worth of expenses from his preliminary budget released last month — allowing his $109.4 billion spending plan to appear balanced on paper while, in reality, it was in the red. The city, for instance, has only budgeted $150 million for a city housing voucher program, even though costs this year are projected to be north of $850 million. The administration has also lowballed a number of other expenses, including uniformed overtime, which the commission argued presents a distorted picture of the city’s finances. “It’s important to be much more transparent about what services you have funded in the budget and what choices you are making,” Ana Champeny, the organization’s vice president of research, said in advance of the report’s release today. “Because otherwise, the conversation isn’t complete.” When the $3.6 billion in extra expenses is taken into account, the commission argued Adams should do another run of cuts for his next budget update in April. — Joe Anuta ANGELS IN TROUBLE: Once and future Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa blamed Adams for the Times Square assault on cops — now he’s got his own Times Square assault to answer for. In a surreal clip, members of Sliwa’s Guardian Angels anti-crime group violently threw a man to the ground in the midst of a live Fox News interview with Sean Hannity Tuesday night. “Our guys are just taking down one of the migrant guys,” Sliwa said. “They’ve taken over!” Sliwa claimed his red-clad crew held the man for shoplifting. But an NYPD spokesperson mentioned nothing of the sort, telling Playbook that cops at the scene were told the man was attempting to interfere with the live TV shot, and that he was given a summons for disorderly conduct — without explaining why, exactly, that would be a crime. Later, police told the Associated Press he wasn’t a migrant, but a New Yorker from the Bronx. City Councilmember Justin Brannan called the assault “A hate crime. Live on TV” and said it should be prosecuted. — Jeff Coltin More from the city: — How to understand the sanctuary city provisions. (Daily News) — The city can proceed with an agreement to overhaul how the NYPD polices protests, a judge ruled, rejecting the PBA’s arguments against it. (New York Times) — The City Council will clear the way for legal action against Adams over his refusal to implement housing voucher laws. (Daily News)   A message from Instagram:   NEW FROM PLANET ALBANY Gov. Kathy Hochul told reporters at an unrelated event that the inclusion of the anti-graffiti provision was meant to send a broader message. | Yuki Iwamura/AP ANTI-HATE CRIME PUSH: Hochul’s effort to crack down on hate crimes in New York by expanding the list of offenses includes a proposal to combat graffiti. On Wednesday in Albany, Hochul told reporters at an unrelated event the inclusion of the anti-graffiti provision — aimed at antisemitic or racist messages — was meant to send a broader message. “It is a hate crime. This is not someone writing on a piece of paper or putting something online,” she said. “This is vandalism. This is hate-inspired vandalism. It has to be reckoned with; we’re not tolerating any forms of hate.” There are 66 offenses in New York that can be charged as a hate crime. Hochul wants to bring that number to 97, including crimes like first-degree rape, arson and sex trafficking. — Nick Reisman More from Albany: — SCOOP: The state is investigating Manhattan hospital Mount Sinai Beth Israel to determine whether it violated a law requiring hospitals to treat anyone who comes to the emergency room. (POLITICO) — Hochul urged communities to “tear down barriers” to new housing. (City & State) — Paul Francis, a former state budget director, writes that governors can fall into “quixotic quests” when negotiating a spending plan. (Empire Report) KEEPING UP WITH THE DELEGATION The DCCC is releasing a social media ad targeting Republican nominee Mazi Pilip's platform on abortion. | Brittainy Newman/AP FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: In a potential preview of what Suozzi will press Pilip on in today’s debate, the DCCC is releasing a social media ad targeting the Republican nominee’s platform on abortion, Playbook has learned. The 40-second spot combines video of Pilip describing herself as “pro-life” with a clip of a recent CNN interview in which she says the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling overturning Roe v. Wade was “the right decision.” The ad is titled, “Mazi Pilip Can’t Be Trusted to Protect Abortion Rights.” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee seeks to tie Pilip’s views to those of Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson. Pilip, for her part, has stressed that she opposes a nationwide abortion ban and has called abortion “a personal choice.” A DCCC spokesperson knocked Pilip for “cynically playing politics” and agreeing to only one debate against Suozzi ahead of Tuesday’s vote. — Emily Ngo NEW YORK STATE OF MIND NYCLU SUES NASSAU: The New York Civil Liberties Union is suing Nassau County, its legislature and others, claiming the county systematically disenfranchised voters of color in the drawing of its county legislative election maps. The lawsuit, filed Wednesday night, alleges that Nassau’s map “unnecessarily ‘cracks’ and ‘packs’ communities of color, suppressing their ability to exercise political power and have a representative governing body.” The suit claims the map violates the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act of New York and the state Municipal Home Rule Law by diluting the voting strength of Black, Latino and Asian Long Islanders, even as those populations grew in size. In a statement to Playbook, Mary Studdert, the spokesperson for the legislature’s Republican majority, denied NYCLU’s allegations. “The adopted maps incorporated feedback from the public’s testimony from over a dozen public hearings, while meeting all legal and constitutional standards, uniting communities of interest and ensuring equal representation for the residents of Nassau County,” Studdert said. Perry Grossman, an NYCLU attorney and director of the organization’s Voting Rights Project, said the county’s maps showed a “willful disregard” for voting laws. “Racially polarized voting persists now in Nassau County as it has for the past three decades, and the growth of the county's Black, Latino and Asian communities warrants more (them) opportunities,” he said. — Jason Beeferman More from around the Empire State: — Hochul named 20 New York cities "pro-housing" communities, a status which allows their local governments to gain access to a $650 million pot of funding in exchange for committing to a pre-determined amount of housing growth. (Times Union) — The former president of Seton Hall University sued the school, alleging it responded to his complaints with “gaslighting" and retaliation that eventually brought his employment “to a grinding halt.” (New York Times) — A Long Island man was sentenced to up to nine years in prison for running a nearly $2 million theft ring out of his pawn shop. (Newsday)   A message from Instagram: More than 75% of parents want to approve the apps teens under 16 download. According to a new poll from Morning Consult, more than 75% of parents agree: Teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps from app stores without parental permission.1 Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done. Learn more. 1"US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads" by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023.   SOCIAL DATA Edited by Daniel Lippman MAKING MOVES — Henry Timms will be CEO of the Brunswick Group. He currently is the president and CEO of Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Vox’s Zack Beauchamp … Will Levi … Barry Newman … Ted Koppel … (WAS WEDNESDAY): Mitch Silber ... Dr. David L. Reich YOUR NEW YORK NUMBER OF THE DAY 115 The number of early votes cast in five days in the special election to replace Assemblymember Latoya Joyner in the South Bronx — an average of just 23 votes a day across two sites.   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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