Wednesday, February 21, 2024

The Biden impeachment’s latest big blow

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DRIVING THE DAY

A RACE TO WATCH — JOHN AVLON, the former CNN anchor, is officially jumping into the race for New York’s 1st Congressional District. “Our democracy’s in danger,” Avlon says in a launch video released minutes ago. Democrats need to “win back the House from [DONALD TRUMP’s] MAGA minions, who don’t even seem interested in solving problems anymore.” Newsday’s Scott Eidler has candidate Avlon’s first interview. The swing district is currently held by Republican NICK LaLOTA.

Playbook hears that Avlon has been advised for months by a top Democrat who knows Long Island better than almost anyone: STEVE ISRAEL, the former congressman who now operates a bookstore in Oyster Bay. Given Avlon’s long history in the news business — he was also editor-in-chief of The Daily Beast and his wife, MARGARET HOOVER, hosts PBS’s Firing Line — there will be no shortage of interest in this race from the Acela corridor media.

Joe Biden departs White House.

Democrats have quickly accused Republicans of falling prey to a Russian disinformation campaign to discredit President Joe Biden. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

IMPEACHMENT’S RUSSIA CONNECTION — In the summer of 2020, ALEXANDER SMIRNOV, a longtime FBI informant with a network of Russian contacts, made an explosive allegation.

Smirnov told his American handler that from 2015 to 2019 he had a series of meetings and phone calls with executives from the Ukrainian natural gas company, Burisma Holdings and that they told him:

  • that Burisma added HUNTER BIDEN to its board to "protect us, through his dad, from all kinds of problems”;
  • that Hunter and JOE BIDEN “forced” Burisma to pay them each $5 million in bribes “to ensure Ukraine Prosecutor General VIKTOR SHOKIN was fired”; and
  • that there were 17 recordings (two with Joe, 15 with Hunter), text messages, and two financial documents with evidence of the entire scheme.

Word of the Smirnov dossier, memorialized internally at the FBI as a four-page report, leaked out and it became the white whale of House and Senate Republicans looking to impeach Joe Biden. Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) and Rep. JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) finally got their hands on it last summer.

It was never fact-checked. None of the exotic Slavic characters it implicated came to testify. None of Smirnov’s LE CARRÉ-like meetings in European locales (Kiev, Vienna, London) were confirmed. No recordings of Joe — “the big guy” in Smirnov’s suspiciously familiar words — ever surfaced. No financial records ever showed any Burisma payments to father or son.

But Smirnov’s curious tale of Biden family corruption was reported as fact on the right. “Biden $10M bribe file released: Burisma chief said he was ‘coerced’ to pay Joe, ‘stupid’ Hunter in bombshell allegations.” read a NY Post headline. By one count, SEAN HANNITY aired 85 segments about it. KEVIN McCARTHY cited the Smirnov dossier as a reason he was moving forward with impeachment.

Last week, we learned that it was all made up. “The Defendant’s story to the FBI was a fabrication,” prosecutors alleged in an indictment of Smirnov. He had “transformed his routine and unextraordinary business contacts with Burisma in 2017 and later into bribery allegations against” Biden.

But yesterday we learned something more unsettling: Smirnov’s story may have been planted by a Russian intelligence source. In a court filing, federal prosecutors detailed Smirnov’s extensive contacts with Russian officials over the course of many years and alleged that he made a shocking admission during his arrest last week.

“During his custodial interview on February 14, Smirnov admitted that officials associated with Russian intelligence were involved in passing a story about” Hunter Biden. They did not specify what the story was or clarify whether Smirnov claimed that the Biden family bribery lie was fed to him by one of his many Russian contacts.

But the cryptic line was suggestive enough to enrage Democrats, who quickly accused Republicans of falling prey to a Russian disinformation campaign to discredit Biden — the same thing Republicans have accused Democrats of ever since the Steele dossier became public in 2017.

The House impeachment effort had already been losing steam. Comer, the Kentucky Republican leading the effort, said recently that a vote might not happen at all, given the House GOP’s tiny majority. And many Republicans suddenly seem more interested in talking about Joe Biden’s age rather than his son Hunter.

In Biden’s orbit, the potential Russian connection to the case is being greeted with outrage.

“Obviously there’s a case that’ll have to play out here,” said a person close to Biden. “But based on the indictment and filing, it lays bare how unscrupulous the entire GOP and their enablers in right wing media have become. …Republicans in Congress ought to be facing the crushing burden of a massive scandal of their own making right now: An impeachment based on what might be a Russian intelligence operation. If nothing else, a criminal lie, based on the indictment.”

Related read: “Hunter Biden mounts legal offensive against tax prosecution,” by Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Fox News hosted a town hall with Donald Trump. Laura Ingraham moderated the event at which Trump made a few bits of news:

  • He said he wanted to have regular debates with Joe Biden, “starting now,” a shift from his refusal to debate in the primary.
  • He again attacked mail-in voting (“You're going to automatically have fraud”).
  • He acknowledged that his VP shortlist includes VIVEK RAMASWAMY, Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, Rep. BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.), South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM and TULSI GABBARD.
  • He declared that the enormous fine from his New York business fraud case “is a form of [ALEXEI] NAVALNY.” More from Alex Isenstadt and Meridith McGraw 

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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THE FEC FILINGS — With the January fundraising numbers now public, Biden’s reelect beat Trump’s campaign in the money game, raising $16 million to Trump’s $9 million and going into February with $56 million to Trump’s $30 million. Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, had to devote nearly $3 million more to covering Trump’s legal expenses last month, Jessica Piper and Zach Montellaro report. The majority of the Trump super PAC MAGA Inc.’s $7 million in fundraising last month came from TIM MELLON. “It is the first-ever fundraising period where Haley’s campaign outraised Trump,” The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger notes.


Some outsider candidates are burning through cash fast, meanwhile. ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. raised $2.7 million but spent $3.2 million last month, and he’s increasingly turning to super PACs for help, Jessica and Zach report. And Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) ended the month with just $200,000 on hand after loaning his campaign another $1 million.

JUST POSTED — “Trump and allies plotting militarized mass deportations, detention camps,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Nick Miroff and Josh Dawsey: “Trump has made similar promises and has used inflammatory smears since his 2016 campaign. But he, his aides and allies say a second turn in office would be more effective in operating the levers of the federal bureaucracy and less vulnerable to internal resistance.”

HAPPENING TOMORROW — POLITICO’s Governors Summit convenes tomorrow at The Wharf, featuring exclusive live conversations with the leaders of six key states on how they’re advancing policy as Washington struggles to act. Catch Eugene interviewing New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU, along with other POLITICOs sitting with Govs. BRIAN KEMP of Georgia, KATHY HOCHUL of New York, KEVIN STITT of Oklahoma, JARED POLIS of Colorado and BILL LEE of Tennessee. Register to join or watch live

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate and the House are out.

What we’re watching … The next spending deadline hits on March 1 — just nine days away — but the real decision point for congressional leaders is coming much sooner. Caitlin Emma reports for Inside Congress that “there’s concern that things aren’t moving fast enough” with appropriations negotiations, meaning that, yes, another stopgap CR might be needed. The decision will probably have to be made this weekend. Meanwhile, Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke reports, some Republicans are already bracing for a potential shutdown, “even if it's just for a few days,” per one lawmaker.

At the White House

Biden will deliver remarks at 3:45 p.m. Eastern time in Culver City, California. Then he’ll leave LA for San Francisco, where he’ll take part in a pair of campaign receptions.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and have internal staff meetings.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks in a room of hundreds of people gathered at Tuscan Village.

Even though she’s cruising toward a big home-state loss this weekend, Nikki Haley says she’ll stay in the race through Super Tuesday. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

HALEY’S MISSION — NIKKI HALEY vowed to keep fighting in the presidential campaign in her “state of the race” speech yesterday, The Post and Courier’s Spencer Donovan and Max White report. “I feel no need to kiss the ring,” she said, criticizing both Biden and Trump. “And I have no fear of Trump’s retribution.”

Even though she’s cruising toward a big home-state loss this weekend, Haley tells AP’s Steve Peoples and Meg Kinnard that she’ll stay in the race through Super Tuesday. And some of her allies want her to keep running until the convention, in case Trump stumbles unexpectedly. She got a shot in the arm yesterday from the WSJ editorial board, which wrote that Haley’s refusal to quit is “showing tenacity that is an important trait in a President.” And the latest FEC filings showed that SFA Fund, a Haley-aligned super PAC, raised $12 million in January and ended the month with $1.9 million on hand.

Other big Haley stories: “A family affair: Nikki Haley’s kids step up for mom’s presidential bid before SC primary,” by The State’s Joseph Bustos … “How Nikki Haley — With Help — Made South Carolina an Economic ‘Beast of the Southeast,’” by WSJ’s John McCormick … “Haley’s nearly all-White high school lacked lessons of racism, some say,” by WaPo’s Michael Kranish … “Why Black Democrats Are Unlikely to Aid Haley in South Carolina,” by NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa and Maya King

More top reads:

  • Meanwhile, Biden’s fundraising swing in California yesterday included big names like JANE FONDA — but not co-hosts HAIM SABAN and CASEY WASSERMAN, who tested positive for the coronavirus, per Deadline.
  • One to watch: “Conservative group launches a quiet effort to drive Black voters away from Biden,” by NBC’s Ben Kamisar: “Mailers targeting voters in South Carolina hit Biden on a proposed menthol cigarette ban. The group behind it plans to deploy the issue in swing states next.”
  • Biden has told aides recently that he wants to start emphasizing the “crazy shit” Trump says much more, going on offense to paint the former president as unfit for office, CNN’s MJ Lee reports.

    TRUMP CARDS

    TRUMP INC. — New York AG TISH JAMES told ABC’s Aaron Katersky and Peter Charalambous that if Trump can’t pay the $354 million business fraud penalty levied against him, she’ll consider seizing his assets — perhaps his 40 Wall Street skyscraper.

    MORE POLITICS

    THE KINGMAKER SPEAKS — Trump yesterday endorsed Rep. MIKE BOST, VINCE FONG and TIM MOORE in contested House GOP primaries in Illinois, California and South Carolina, respectively. The Bost backing is particularly notable because he’s facing a tough challenge from MAGA-aligned DARREN BAILEY, as the Chicago Tribune notes. In the Central Valley, Trump’s selection gives Fong, Kevin McCarthy's preferred successor, “a much-needed credibility boost among the MAGA faithful,” per Melanie Mason.

    THE KINGMAKER KEEPS HIS DISTANCE — Pennsylvania Senate GOP recruit DAVID McCORMICK and Trump are doing a bit of “an awkward dance,” AP’s Marc Levy reports from Harrisburg.

    THE NEW GOP, PART I — “A Nerve Center for the Right Wing Rises in Washington,” by NYT’s Robert Draper: “The Conservative Partnership Institute has become a breeding ground for the next generation of Trump loyalists and an incubator for policies he might pursue.”

    THE NEW GOP, PART II — “Trump’s RNC Takeover Is on the Brink of Becoming a ‘Purge,’” by The Daily Beast’s Jake Lahut and Reese Gorman: “[I]t’s not just RNC staffers who are not safe — it’s also the party’s 168 committee members and consultants who have enjoyed friendly business relationships with the party.”

    THE NEW GOP, PART III — “The Heritage Foundation recruits an army to build a Trump presidency playbook,” by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott: “Project 2025 … has signed on just over 100 coalition partners for its advisory board. The lineup is a mix of traditional issue advocacy groups and New Right political organizations.”

    SEARCHING FOR SILVER IN THE GOLDEN STATE — A new poll of the California Senate jungle primary has Republican STEVE GARVEY starting to extend his lead over Democratic Rep. KATIE PORTER for second place, per The Hill. That would put him in the general with Democratic Rep. ADAM SCHIFF if it holds. Garvey’s rise is notable, NYT’s Shawn Hubler reports, because so far he “stands out both for his celebrity and for how little he has actually campaigned.”

     

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    CONGRESS

    House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott (D-Ga.) appears before the House Rules Committee at the U.S. Capitol June 13, 2022. (Francis Chung/E&E News/POLITICO via AP Images)

    Several Hill Dems are concerned about House Agriculture ranking member David Scott's decision to run for reelection. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

    THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — House Agriculture ranking member DAVID SCOTT’s (D-Ga.) decision to run for reelection has sparked concerns among many Hill Dems, who are gingerly raising questions about his ability to lead, Meredith Lee Hill and Garrett Downs report this morning. More than a dozen sources tell our colleagues that the 78-year-old, who’s had good relationships on both sides of the aisle for years, now “frequently reads from a script and at times has trouble carrying out substantive conversations in real time about much of the food and agriculture policy that he oversees.”

    “David Scott is Exhibit A for term limits,” says one Democratic member of Congress. And the concerns are particularly acute because he’s in charge of leading Dem negotiations on the stalled farm bill, which has huge implications for much of the country. His struggles have led some Dems to take a look at a tougher-than-usual primary challenge he faces in Georgia — and raised questions about whether leadership might remove as chair if he is reelected, which House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES doesn’t explicitly rule out.

    Scott and his office declined to comment or didn’t respond to requests.

    More top reads:

    • The Senate’s far-right flank: A band of GOP senators who are typically thorns in Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL’s side urged him to get on board with agitating for an actual impeachment trial against DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, per CBS’ Kaia Hubbard. And this group is growing more restive: “I cannot even believe how badly McConnell blew this,” Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) tells The Daily Caller’s Henry Rodgers of the national security supplemental.
    • Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) became the second member to leave the Congressional Progressive Caucus over the Israel-Hamas war, per Nick Wu and Daniella Diaz.

    AMERICA AND THE WORLD

    NUKES IN SPACE — “US Tells Allies Russia May Launch Anti-Satellite Nuclear Weapon Into Space This Year,” by Bloomberg’s Alberto Nardelli, Jennifer Jacobs and Katrina Manson … Meanwhile, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN denied that he had any such plans, per Bloomberg.

    MIDDLE EAST LATEST — “US blocks ceasefire call with third UN veto in Israel-Hamas war,” by Reuters’ Michelle Nichols … “US drone that crashed in Yemen appears to have been shot down by Houthi missile, official says,” by CNN’s Haley Britzky

    DISINFORMATION DIGEST — “US increasingly worried about Kremlin’s disinfo operations in Africa,” by Joseph Gedeon: “The U.S. is recruiting allies to a new intelligence-sharing coalition to expose and counter Russian state-backed disinformation operations.”

    JUDICIARY SQUARE

    FILE - The U.S Supreme Court is photographed, Jan. 3, 2024, in Washington. The Supreme Court on Tuesday left in place the admissions policy at an elite public high school in Virginia, despite claims that it discriminates against highly qualified Asian Americans. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, file)

    Today, the Supreme Court will hear Ohio v. EPA, in which red states will challenge a rule that governs pollution that strays across state lines. | Mariam Zuhaib, file/AP Photo

    SCOTUS ROUNDUP — A flurry of Supreme Court activity this week could have big implications for a wide range of political and policy fights:

    Three more notable rejections: The justices turned down an effort from SIDNEY POWELL, LIN WOOD and others to undo Michigan sanctions they faced for trying to overturn the 2020 election, per CBS. … The high court allowed fines to stand that were imposed on Reps. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) and RALPH NORMAN (R-S.C.) for not wearing masks on the House floor during the pandemic, per the AP. … And NYC’s rent stabilization law survived two legal challenges, potentially giving a boost to similar efforts elsewhere, per the N.Y. Daily News. (Justice CLARENCE THOMAS dissented in part.)

    Two big challenges to federal rules: At oral arguments yesterday, the court weighed a challenge to a 2011 Fed regulation on “swipe fees” for debit cards, with possibly significant ramifications for businesses’ ability to fight federal regulations, Reuters’ John Kruzel and Andrew Chung report. … Today, the Supreme Court will hear Ohio v. EPA, in which red states will challenge a rule that governs pollution that strays across state lines, Roll Call’s David Jordan previews.

    And one thing to watch: In a statement about a separate case yesterday, Justice SAMUEL ALITO again attacked Obergefell v. Hodges, the landmark ruling that legalized same-sex marriage, NYT’s Abbie VanSickle notes. Alito said he continued to worry that the ruling effectively meant that “Americans who do not hide their adherence to traditional religious beliefs about homosexual conduct will be ‘labeled as bigots and treated as such’ by the government.”

    More top reads:

    • PETER NAVARRO will be held in contempt of court if he doesn’t hand over email records to the National Archives within a month, WaPo’s Spencer Hsu reports.
    • RUDY GIULIANI was told that he can appeal the massive defamation judgment against him, but he has to rely on “pre-approved donors to pay the legal expenses,” per NBC’s Ryan Reilly.

    WAR IN UKRAINE

    THE SALES PITCH — Biden is increasingly trying to make the case to Americans that the majority of new Ukraine aid would actually stay in the U.S., bolstering the domestic economy via weapons factories, AP’s Jamie Stengle and Josh Boak report from Mesquite, Texas. But his messaging hasn’t been good enough for Rep. CHRIS SMITH (R-N.J.), a Ukraine supporter who tells Anthony Adragna and Jordain Carney that Biden should explain the national security supplemental in “a major address to the country.”

    BEYOND THE BELTWAY

    CLIMATE FILES — “Democrats pushed climate action. Then utility bills skyrocketed,” by Wes Venteicher: “Electricity bills are biting lawmakers in coastal, Democratic-leaning districts.”

     

    CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

     
     
    PLAYBOOKERS

    Alex Ward’s new book, “The Internationalists” ($32), is already a hot commodity.

    Marco Rubio met with Javier Milei.

    Bob Good was ejected from a pro-Donald Trump store.

    Lindsey Graham landed on Russia’s list of “extremists and terrorists.”

    Tammy Murphy is breaking with Phil Murphy on a power plant.

    Joel Martinez, acting No. 2 at the Border Patrol, is retiring as he faces sexual misconduct allegations.

    OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at Sonoma last night from the launch of the Diversity in Spectrum Council, a new group dedicated to diversifying the spectrum talent pipeline and sponsored by Amazon: Johanna Thomas, Diane Holland, John Nakahata, Svetlana Matt, Chris Lewis, Alisa Valentin, Lara Marion and Kristine Hackman, Mari Silbey, Rikin Thakker, Maura Corbett, Anne Keeney, Lauren Gaydos, Maha Quadri and Isabela Kent.

    WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Jing Qu will join the Biden reelect in a senior role on the paid media team, The Hill’s Brett Samuels scooped. She previously was chief of staff for Mike Donilon and the White House speechwriting office.

    TRANSITIONS — Hannah Pope is now comms director for Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.). She most recently was comms director for the Problem Solvers Caucus, and is a Brian Fitzpatrick and Levick alum. … Luis Soriano is now press secretary for Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.). He previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). … Rebecca Gansca is now a director at SMI. She most recently was national security adviser to Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), chair of the Senate seapower subcommittee, and is a retired Marine Corps officer. …

    … David Hyde has returned to the Aerospace Industries Association as senior director of sustainability. He previously was autonomous systems lead of aviation and aerospace projects lead of sustainable aviation at the World Economic Forum. … Rebecca Vallas is now a distinguished fellow and senior adviser at the National Academy of Social Insurance. She most recently was a senior fellow at the Century Foundation. … Alicia Hennie is now VP of external affairs at United Network for Organ Sharing. She most recently was senior director for government affairs at Varian, and is a Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker alum.

    ENGAGED — Michael DiRoma, managing partner of DiRoma Eck & Co. and a Treasury Department and Susan Collins alum, proposed to Anita Rozowska, senior external affairs officer at the World Bank’s Pandemic Fund, on Saturday at their home in Georgetown. They met through mutual friends.Pic

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) (6-0) … Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.) (6-0) … Allen DickersonMaya MacGuineas Paul Teller Jeremy GainesKevin SheridanKristie Greco Johnson … former Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) … Ashley Etienne … former Reps. Charles Boustany (R-La.), Phil Hare (D-Ill.), John Shimkus (R-Ill.) and Steven Palazzo (R-Miss.) … Ryan Rudominer of Red Horse Strategies … Lee Powell … Holland & Knight’s Beth Viola … Reuters’ Ross Colvin … POLITICO’s Mona Zhang, Lucas Gomez-Acebo and Jaime-Lee Reichman Kilmeny Duchardt ... Tricia Nixon Cox … Purple Strategies’ Stephen Smith Bob ChlopakDavid Wessel Jordan ZaslavScott Kelly (6-0) … Daniel Yim of House Oversight … Ron Pollack Marcus Davis-Mercer of the Herald Group … LinkedIn’s Jeff Weiner Alanna Paul of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation … Zach Volpe of the Senate Armed Services Committee

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    Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misreported Lanny Davis’ current professional affiliations.

     

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