Can Valadao cling to his Central Valley swing seat?

Presented by Californians for Energy Independence: Inside the Golden State political arena

Feb 29, 2024 View in browser   By Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner Presented by Californians for Energy Independence Rep. David Valadao speaks to reporters as he leaves a House Republican caucus meeting at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 12, 2023, in Washington, D.C. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images THE BUZZ —  It’s amazing David Valadao has lasted this long. The Hanford Republican was first elected to represent his Central Valley district in 2012, and has spent the last decade battling some of the most formidable headwinds in politics. He was temporarily removed in 2018 by Democrat TJ Cox (who was later indicted on fraud charges) but won the seat back in 2020, despite Joe Biden carrying the key swing district by 10 points. Of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021, Valadao was one of only two who was reelected. Supporters will say there’s an obvious explanation for his longevity — his politics and his background as a dairy farmer are a good fit for the district, and he’s a natural at connecting with constituents. But Valadao finds himself — yet again — fighting for his seat, threatened by challengers to the left and to the right. Republican groups have spent an eye-popping $1.5 million to bolster him in primary ads. Here’s what we’re watching this time — THE MATHYS FACTOR — Self-proclaimed “MAGA Conservative” Chris Mathys came within 200 votes of Valadao in the 2022 primary, but isn’t enjoying the same strategic boost from Democrats this time (more on that below). Nevertheless, his presence on the ballot has put added pressure on Valadao to emphasize his conservative chops. Much of the fallout from the Trump impeachment vote has passed, district politicos say, but the incumbent is still taking steps to court that sector of the electorate. TURNOUT TROUBLES — Ballot returns are lagging, and dismal voter turnout is likely to hurt Democrats more than Republicans across the state, political data experts say. The worry is that a bigger showing from conservative Republicans in the primary could be enough to boost Mathys into contention — which is why the establishment is taking no chances. Ads for Valadao tout his tough stances on red-meat issues like support for law enforcement and cracking down on illegal border crossings. One spot, from the Congressional Leadership Fund, even goes so far as to assail Mathys as “recklessly liberal.” THE DEMOCRATIC INFIGHTING — Two years ago, Democrats were spending money boosting Mathys, who they saw as an easier Republican opponent for former Assemblymember Rudy Salas than Valadao. This year, they’re focused on a more existential problem. Salas is hoping for a rematch with Valadao after losing to the incumbent by three points in 2022. But first he has to fend off a challenge from his own side of the aisle. Party forces are spending millions to neutralize state Sen. Melissa Hurtado. There’s a chance the two Democrats split the vote and lose their spot in the top two entirely, which could create a runoff between the two Republicans, Mathys and Valadao. GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Now you can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced. The governor was spotted yesterday in KQED’s Sacramento studios (which it shares with POLITICO) for a chat with Marisa Lagos and Scott Shafer. You can hear that interview air tonight at 6:30 p.m.     A message from Californians for Energy Independence: As California transitions to a lower carbon economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues. But instead, California energy policies are shutting down in-state oil production faster than we can build adequate replacement energy - increasing our dependence on more costly imported oil. Get the facts on California Energy Policies   Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) presents a gift of See's Candies and Ghirardelli chocolates to Kansas City Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), honoring a friendly Super Bowl wager. | Mia McCarthy/POLITICO SPOTTED — Two San Francisco natives on Capitol Hill — See’s Candies and Ghirardelli chocolates. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi brought both to Kansas City’s Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) after a friendly wager over the Super Bowl. Had the 49ers pulled through, Pelosi would have gotten some Kansas City barbeque. “Well, congratulations,” Pelosi said to Cleaver. “And we’ll see you next year.” When asked about their favorite Taylor Swift song, both Cleaver and the Speaker Emerita demurred — “I’’ll have to ask my grandchildren,” Pelosi said.   CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now.     CAMPAIGN YEAR Protestors carry placards and wave Armenian flags during a demonstration in support of Armenians in Brussels on Oct. 1, 2023 | Simon Wohlfahrt/AFP via Getty Images DISPATCH FROM THE FRONT — Israeli-Palestinian fighting has taken center stage in this year’s elections. But in CA-30, the battle to fill the vacancy left by Rep. Adam Schiff, is being shaped by an entirely different foreign conflict — the one between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Schiff’s Los Angeles-area seat is home to the highest concentration of Armenian American residents in the country, our colleague Melanie Mason reports this morning. The solidly-Democratic district has seen a slew of candidates jump in the race, including state lawmakers Laura Friedman and Anthony Portantino, and the recent uptick in tensions abroad has put added pressure on the candidates to assert their support for the community — at the risk of offending President Joe Biden.  Local politicians have long had a standard formula for courting the Armenian community, which makes up 13 percent of registered voters: recognizing the 1915 genocide, visiting Armenia and wooing the vast network of grassroots clubs, churches, television channels and cultural groups that have made the community a political powerhouse. But the fallout from the recent clashes have added a new, tricky balancing act to the playbook. Democrats are loath to do anything that would undercut their party’s leader during a high-stakes presidential year, but to channel the Armenian American community’s frustrations, nine of the Democratic contenders have pressured Biden to act more assertively. They’ve called for increased aid to Armenia, an end to military assistance to Azerbaijan and a stronger diplomatic role in the region. UNLIKELY ALLIANCES — What does Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley have in common with Democratic mayors London Breed and Matt Mahan? They all want to alter one of California’s signature criminal justice reform measures. Kiley, the bombastic freshman congressmember from CA-3, has been shouting for changes to Proposition 47 for years, looking to change the decade-old law that downgraded sentencing for certain drug and theft offenses. He recently kicked in nearly $30,000 to the committee collecting ballot measure signatures to change it, putting him among the ranks of San Francisco and Fresno Democrats who have also voiced support for the initiative amid rising concerns about public safety. The effort to roll back Prop 47 is heavily backed by business groups and major retailers, including Target, Walmart and Macy’s. Among the other California lawmakers who are backing the changes are Republican Assemblymember Vince Fong and state Sens. Shannon Grove, Roger Niello and Brian Jones, who have kicked in thousands of dollars to the effort.   A message from Californians for Energy Independence:   ON THE HILL FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: DEBT RELIEF — California Reps. Salud Carbajal and Schiff are introducing a bill today to raise the Pell Grant to $14,800 during the 2024-25 and 2025-26 school years. The Degrees not Debt Act would double the maximums for Pell Grants and tie the maximum value to inflation for the following years. The bill comes after the Education Department’s budget for this school year raised Pell grant maximums $500 higher than the previous year and $900 higher than in 2022. — Mia McCarthy    On the ground in Albany. Get critical policy news and analysis inside New York State. Track how power brokers are driving change across legislation and budget and impacting lobbying efforts. Learn more.     Top Talkers — How Panera Bread helped secure a carve-out in California’s $20 minimum-wage law. (Bloomberg). — A homeless encampment has sprung up outside Ojai City Hall. (Los Angeles Times) — Amazon used AI to replicate actors' voices during strike, a lawsuit alleges. (Los Angeles times)   A message from Californians for Energy Independence: California faces a $68 billion deficit, a rising cost of living, and has some of the highest gas prices in the country. Now, California energy policies could make matters worse. That’s because California is shutting down in-state oil and gas production before we have adequate replacement power. That forces our state to spend $25 billion a year importing more costly oil to meet our needs - sending billions that could be supporting California’s economy out of state instead. These energy policies threaten California’s access to reliable energy, while increasing our gas and utility prices. As California transitions to a lower carbon economy, we should continue to produce the oil and gas we still need in-state, where it meets world-class environmental standards and our communities can benefit from the revenues - rather than increase our dependence on more costly imported oil. Get the facts on California Energy Policies   PLAYBOOKERS LEAP DAY BIRTHDAYS — Democratic Consultant John Shallman…   CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Dustin Gardiner @dustingardiner Lara Korte @lara_korte POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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