| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest: “Trump Could Come Back. #Resistance Might Not” TOP-ED — WSJ editorial page to GOP: Pass the Ukraine-border deal. The Journal's editors make all the arguments pro-deal Republicans have been marshaling in recent weeks:
- H.R. 2 can’t pass.
- The right won’t get a better deal under DONALD TRUMP.
- Killing the deal to keep border chaos alive as an election issue would doom any Democratic support for an immigration deal next year.
- Killing the deal at Trump’s urging could hand Biden a political weapon for the campaign.
- Coupling Ukraine aid with a conservative border package “offers some cover for a hard Ukraine vote, and a political and policy victory to tout at home.”
- If Republicans scuttle aid to Ukraine they “will share responsibility for whatever happens next” there.
Quite a line: “Kyiv’s defeat will be signed with the party’s signature. Do Republicans want to sponsor the 2024 equivalent of Saigon 1975?”
|  Mark Penn speaks to reporters in the "spin room" after the Democratic debate at Saint Anselm College Jan. 5, 2008, in Manchester, New Hampshire. | Win McNamee/Getty Images | THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: MARK PENN — One of the biggest threats to JOE BIDEN’s reelection is a viable third-party candidate. In fact, Democratic strategist DOUG SOSNIK has gone so far as to state that “Trump can’t win without a third-party candidate dividing the anti-Trump vote.” It wouldn’t take much for a third party to have a big impact in 2024. In 2020, the election was decided by fewer than 40,000 votes in three swing states. And in 2024, third-party fever seems to be on the rise. Already, CORNEL WEST, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and JILL STEIN are running. Then there’s the quixotic movement known as No Labels, which has cited a stream of polling data arguing that a large majority of Amerians are crying out for an alternative to Trump and Biden. The man producing those polls is MARK PENN, best known for two things: his devotion to centrist politics and his longtime role as the top pollster for BILL and HILLARY CLINTON. Now he runs a large marketing and communications firm called Stagwell and publishes the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, which he seems to be using to troll both Democrats and Republicans. Penn’s wife, NANCY JACOBSON, runs No Labels, and Penn provides the data that she uses. Penn’s polling reports that 64% of voters say “the country needs another choice” if there’s a Biden-Trump rematch — and that most voters would consider a moderate, independent candidate as an alternative. Penn’s work amounts to a strategic map for anyone who might want to dismantle Trump or Biden’s candidacy. To freaked out Democrats, No Labels swears it will not use that platform to help elect Trump, though that looks like an empty promise to Biden allies watching the likes of JOE MANCHIN, LARRY HOGAN and others flirting with the No Labels opportunity. Not surprisingly, Penn and Jacobson’s work has infuriated Democrats, who are spending money to discredit them, sue No Labels, thwart the group’s voter registration efforts and pressure its affiliates. So what does Mark Penn think about all of this? Ryan caught up with Penn this week. You can listen to the full conversation on this week’s episode of Playbook Deep Dive. What follows are excerpts, edited for length and clarity. On whether NIKKI HALEY has a path forward: “Well, you always have a path if you change voters’ minds. But if she can’t get more than 25% of the Republican base, practically speaking, she’s going to lose. … Now does that mean you should get out of the race? Almost anything can happen in politics. Why not run it out till at least Super Tuesday, and see what happens? With Donald Trump, you never know.” Why he thinks Trump has to pick Haley as his VP: “Trump has a problem, which is the Nikki Haley voters. … A large percentage of them are never Trump. … Does Trump have a way of consolidating them? It seems to me that Trump almost has to pick her as vice president. … He could do her, or he could do TIM SCOTT. … She would get that women’s Republican vote in the suburbs overwhelmingly. And that would be the end of the election.” What Biden should do on immigration: “For the very first time, in this month’s Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, immigration came up as the No. 1 issue in the country. … [For Biden,] the politics are: make a deal, pretend that you’re dragged kicking and screaming and do your best to take the issue off the table. … He waited too long for that. But he’s got to neutralize it in some way. … He can’t have his lowest rating on the No. 1 issue. … I won’t call it ‘fatal,’ but let’s call it ‘super difficult.’” On what issues would animate a successful third party in 2024: “The very issue of national unity and solving problems like … immigration. … Most issues have solutions that, in the current polarized environment, aren’t getting implemented. The opening here would be for a third party to come in and say: Look, we’re going to actually fix the problems because we’re going to be divorced from the partisanship that the Republicans and Democrats have just dug themselves into.”
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| On No Labels: “Well, let’s just be very clear: My wife, Nancy Jacobson, founded No Labels when I was busy with the Hillary campaign. And she runs it and makes the decisions. And I have no formal or informal role other than that I occasionally look at some polling and I support my wife, and she tries to make clear that she’s just getting ballot access — she’s just creating an opportunity if somebody were to come along and be the right person. I can assure you: She’s not someone who ever would even consider voting for Trump. Somehow, the Democrats don’t fully understand that fact. … She’s approached this thing in a very sensible way, and she has no intention whatsoever of being a spoiler.” On the political implications of the Trump prosecutions: “What I found out [in polling] is they don’t care about the documents. So I said: What if he’s convicted in Georgia? They care somewhat about that. And then I said: What if he’s convicted in the Jan. 6 case of having helped foment the riot? Then Biden won. So it really said to me that, okay, the case that JACK SMITH wants to prosecute, that’s the dangerous case.” What happens if Trump is acquitted before the election: “That’s some high-stakes politics. … I don’t think there’s any question: If he was actually acquitted by a jury on that, close to the election, that would give him a tremendous boost.” Listen to the show on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: Local credit unions and community banks serve an essential role in supporting Main Street. So, when 10,000+ credit unions and community banks throughout the country oppose the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill, Congress should pay attention. Durbin-Marshall lines the pockets of corporate mega-stores by shifting costs and risks to credit unions, community banks, and their 140 million customers. Click here to learn more. | | | SCOOP: A DONATION MYSTERY — Is someone trolling TIM SHEEHY, or is he trolling Montanans? The GOP establishment’s pick to take on Democratic Sen. JON TESTER backed Trump last spring — so it was surprising when somebody listing Sheehy’s name and address gave the maximum donation to Sen. TIM SCOTT’s (R-S.C.) presidential campaign in June. (This was three days after Trump became the first former president in history to face federal criminal charges.) To make matters more head-scratching, the donation listed Sheehy’s occupation as “plane crasher” — and it came five days before our now-colleague Ursula Perano reported for The Daily Beast on the existence of a lawsuit against Sheehy for a fatal plane crash that happened while he was piloting. Campaign donations using fake famous names do happen, so it could have been a prank. But the Scott campaign later amended the report (a common practice) to list the occupation as owner of Little Belt Cattle Co., which is Sheehy’s real job. Our colleague Jessica Piper dug through the WinRed records and found other donations in Sheehy’s name — this time to RYAN ZINKE and to Trump — that had listed “plane crasher” as the occupation in the WinRed filing, though the corresponding filings from Zinke’s campaign and Trump’s joint fundraising committee respectively listed him as a “pilot” and a “cowboy.” Did Sheehy donate to Scott after telling the public he supported Trump, and call himself a “plane crasher”? Or is somebody messing with the NRSC’s prized recruit, who could face a tough primary challenge from Rep. MATT ROSENDALE? Sheehy spokesperson KATIE MARTIN told us two weeks ago that she’d ask him — but stopped responding to several calls, texts and emails since then. Spokespeople for Scott and WinRed didn’t respond to inquiries. Speaking of Sheehy: “How many genders are there, according to one GOP Super PAC? Three: ‘Male,’ ‘working woman’ and ‘homemaker.’ Those are the categories given in a survey sent out to Montanans on behalf of the super PAC More Jobs, Less Government, which is supporting Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy,” The 19th’s Grace Panetta reports. “The full online survey, obtained by The 19th, tested various messages and a yet-to-be-aired TV ad attacking Rep. Matt Rosendale, Sheehy’s potential opponent in the Republican primary.” Related read: “G.O.P. Infighting and Democratic Mischief Animate Montana Senate Race,” by NYT’s Michael Bender
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. 3 things to watch …
- We told you this was a thing: Last week, Playbook filled you in on how some Democrats were talking about agreeing to protect Speaker MIKE JOHNSON from a motion in return for putting a bipartisan border-Ukraine deal on the House floor. Turns out, NBC’s Julie Tsirkin and Scott Wong report, that Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) raised that very idea at a White House meeting attended by Johnson and Biden, among others. Johnson, they report, did not react in the moment
- Johnson continues feeling his way through his newly expanded political role. A junior member of leadership just three months ago, every endorsement of his is now under a microscope. His move to back state Rep. DEREK MERRIN in Ohio over two GOP rivals represents a canny move to oust longtime Democratic Rep. MARCY KAPTUR. But, per North Carolina journalist Bryan Anderson, he’s not wading into a competitive GOP primary in that state involving an old friend and colleague, former Rep. MARK WALKER.
- The Kids Online Safety Act got a big boost yesterday after Snapchat became the first platform to back the bill bolstering online protections for children on social media, our colleague Rebecca Kern reports. The public support for the legislation comes before the company’s CEO prepares to testify before Congress along with a number of other social media executives next week.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 1 p.m.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE GOLDEN STATE POLITICAL ARENA: POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter provides a front row seat to the most important political news percolating in the state’s power centers, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley. Authors Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner deliver exclusive news, buzzy scoops and behind-the-scenes details that you simply will not get anywhere else. Subscribe today and stay ahead of the game! | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS
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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Capitol Hill May 11, 2021. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | CLEAN-UP ON AISLE McCONNELL — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was at the center of a firestorm before much of Washington woke up yesterday, after a meal was made out of some fairly pragmatic comments that the Kentucky Republican made to his colleagues. McConnell on Wednesday told Senate Republicans that the party was in a “quandary” over the border negotiations and that they “don’t want to do anything to undermine” Trump — but some of the coverage painted the comments as McConnell backing away from the talks, rather than a simple acknowledgement of the political reality of another Trump presidential run. So yesterday, McConnell called another meeting with his colleagues, where he tried to make clear his position: “He is still forcefully pushing a deal that would pair new border and immigration restrictions with money for Ukraine. It’s a critical piece of McConnell’s legacy — and the GOP leader isn’t letting go at this late stage in the game,” our Hill aces Burgess Everett, Ursula Perano and Jordain Carney report. Though some of his fellow Republicans expressed consternation after McConnell’s Trump comments came to light, his address yesterday seemed to clear the air of any confusion.
- Sen. TODD YOUNG’s (R-Ind.): “For me, it was certainly clarifying … He made clear that he has been supportive of Sen. [JAMES] LANKFORD’s negotiating efforts and that we should be supportive of any work product that leads to greater border security.”
- Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.): “Sen. McConnell has not changed his point of view,” adding of McConnell’s Trump comments: “And I don’t think anybody disagreed with him. We are at a particular set of crossroads and intersections.”
The details: “While public release of text for the deal could clear up much of the whispers that have grown louder about what will and won’t be included, Lankford said that the details are still not quite ready yet,” Burgess, Ursula and Jordain write. “Negotiators had hoped to start voting on the measure this week, but they now say the finite deals remain in flux at the Appropriations Committee.” Lankford, on the timing: “Certainly not weeks, but we're hoping it’s days to try to get it out. But it’s not today.” More top reads:
- Leaders from some of the biggest names in college sports are mounting an all-out blitz for Congress to shield them from efforts to turn student-athletes into school employees who can demand salaries, union protections and other benefits, Juan Perez Jr. and Nick Niedzwiadek report.
THE WHITE HOUSE
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President Joe Biden arrives at the White House in Washington, Monday, Jan. 22, 2024, after returning from Rehoboth Beach, Del. | Andrew Harnik/AP | THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — As McConnell tries to get his troops all on the same page on the border deal, over at the White House, officials say they’re still committed to the negotiations, despite Trump’s meddling. “Officials stuck to a tight script Thursday, telling reporters that the administration continues to engage while urging Republicans to do the same. They notably did not accuse the former president of trying to kill the Senate border deal that Biden aides have been negotiating for months,” our colleague Myah Ward reports. What they’re saying: “This is a president who knows we need action and is working in good faith to make that happen. And we see no reason for politics to get in the way here,” White House principal deputy press secretary OLIVIA DALTON told reporters on Air Force One. More top reads:
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:   | | | 2024 WATCH
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Donald Trump gestures to the crowd after speaking at a primary election night party in Nashua, N.H., Jan. 23, 2024. | Matt Rourke/AP | RESOLUTION DISSOLUTION — Early yesterday, news broke that the Republican National Committee was considering a resolution offered by committeeman DAVID BOSSIE to declare Trump the presumptive presidential nominee, as first reported by The Dispatch’s David Drucker. Haley’s campaign was quick to shoot back in a statement: “Trump’s establishment lackeys are pushing for a toothless resolution to deny millions of Republican voters from having a say in the presidential contest.” Even Trump himself jumped into the mix, posting on Truth Social that “for the sake of PARTY UNITY, that they should NOT go forward with this plan, but that I should do it the ‘Old Fashioned’ way, and finish the process off AT THE BALLOT BOX.” Read the full post By the end of the day, the proposed resolution was withdrawn, a source confirmed to Playbook. More top reads:
- While California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM (ostensibly) stumps for the Biden reelection campaign in South Carolina, he’s getting a low-stakes opportunity to see if he can connect to voters in the most important early state for Dems. But his West Coast flair isn’t mixing smoothly with the charm of the South, our colleague Christopher Cadelago writes from Bluffton, South Carolina.
AMERICA AND THE WORLD JUST IN — “MOSCOW (AP) — A court in Moscow Friday extended the pretrial detention of Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, arrested on espionage charges, until the end of March, meaning the journalist will spend at least a year behind bars in Russia.” HAPPENING TODAY — “World Court Set to Decide in Genocide Case Against Israel,” by WSJ’s Jess Bravin: “South Africa, backed by the Palestinian Authority, filed the charge earlier this month before the world court, a judicial arm of the United Nations.” FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S., Iraq to Hold Talks on Phasing Out American-Led Military Coalition,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon and David Cloud JUDICIARY SQUARE GEORGIA ON MY MIND — Trump and his legal team yesterday “joined an effort to disqualify FANI T. WILLIS from leading the election interference case against Mr. Trump in Georgia, on the grounds that she created a conflict of interest by hiring her romantic partner to help prosecute the case,” NYT’s Richard Fausset and Danny Hakim report. “Trump’s lawyers also raised a new argument for ousting Ms. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney: that she violated state bar rules when she claimed in a recent speech that racism was behind the effort to remove her.” TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Laura Barrón-López, Tom Nichols, Ashley Parker and Chuck Todd. SUNDAY SO FAR … ABC “This Week”: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … California Gov. Gavin Newsom … Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown. Panel: Rick Klein, Donna Brazile, Ramesh Ponnuru and Juana Summers. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) … Shawn Fain. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Panel: Francesca Chambers, Julia Manchester, Kevin Roberts and Juan Williams. CNN “State of the Union”: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. NBC “Meet the Press”: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Panel: Cornell Belcher, Matt Gorman and Carol Lee. MSNBC “The Weekend”: Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.).
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Marianne Williamson isn’t done yet. Addison McDowell is staking his North Carolina campaign on Zyns. Jerry Carl disagrees with Nikki Haley and believes “everyone has some racist in them.” Josh Hawley wants the “Oppenheimer” subjects to have their moment. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a farewell celebration at the White House on Wednesday evening for Michael Leach, who is departing the administration as the first-ever chief diversity and inclusion officer: Ali Zaidi, Janice Underwood, Kamau Marshall, Maju Varghese, Sesha Joi Moon, Cristobal Alex, David White, Stacy Eichner, Luisana Pérez, Dave Noble, Erica Loewe, John Burns and Alix Dejean. — Craig Newmark hosted a party in his NYC home to celebrate his new $10 million gift to the Graduate School of Journalism at CUNY toward making the whole school tuition-free by 2026: Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), Masha Gessen, Norm Pearlstein, Ken Sunshine, Joel Simon, Ali Velshi, Brian Stelter, Jesse Angelo, Chris Collins, Brigid Bergin, Cat Rakowski, Beth Fouhy, Judith Thurman, Félix V. Matos Rodríguez and Graciela Mochkofsky. Pic FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Our American Future Foundation and Our American Future Action are launching as new players in the progressive/labor space, with a budget of several million dollars. Top staffers include Brennan Bilberry as president of the 501(c)(4), Rebecca Pearcy as president of the 501(c)(3) and Katie Nee as CEO of both groups. Read more NEW NOMINEES — Aviva Aron-Dine will be tapped to serve as assistant Treasury secretary for tax policy, Brian Faler and Daniel Lippman report for Pros … The White House announced Biden is nominating Tracey Ann Jacobson as ambassador to Iraq. MEDIA MOVE — Ganesh Sitaraman is now a contributing writer at POLITICO Magazine. He’s a Vanderbilt law professor and Elizabeth Warren alum. TRANSITIONS — Casey Peeks and Veronica Goodman are joining the Center for American Progress. Peeks will be senior director of early childhood policy and previously was director of federal policy at the Children’s Defense Fund. Goodman will be senior director for workforce development policy and previously was a policy adviser for Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra … former Speaker Kevin McCarthy … POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers and Brian Cormier … The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta … HHS’ David Naimon … Jim Papa of Global Strategy Group … Axios’ Justin Green … Kayla Gowdy of The Washington Times … Mala Parker of the International Foodservice Distributors Association … NPR’s Isabel Lara … Matt Miller of Rep. Troy Carter’s (D-La.) office … Cheri Jacobus … Layla Brooks of Rep. Nikema Williams’ (D-Ga.) office … Brett Layson … Jen Hing … Lindsay Hayes … Margie Omero … Christian Deschauer … former Rep. Albio Sires (D-N.J.) … former Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton … Max Castroparedes … Mason Zeagler of the Michael J. Fox Foundation … Michelle Shevin-Coetzee of Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Ariz.) office … Sheila Angelo … Rob Foreman Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Wednesday’s Playbook misspelled Daniel Klaidman’s name.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would create new government mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The bill would benefit corporate mega-stores, like Walmart and Target, at the expense of Main Street and the 140 million Americans who rely on credit unions and community banks. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that 10,000+ credit unions and community banks in America are opposed to the bill. They also see through the so-called “carve out” for smaller banks which is a hoax to try and buy their support. Their message to Congress is simple: on behalf of credit unions and community banks in all 50 states, commit to actively opposing the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. Click here to learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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