Trump wins New Hampshire, Haley vows to fight on

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Jan 24, 2024 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez Presented by Editor's note: The wrong edition of Score was sent out due to a production error. This is a special edition following the New Hampshire primary. TOP LINE It’s not over ’till it’s over. And even though former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden won their respective contests last night, it looks like the presidential primary will continue on. Trump clinched another win in New Hampshire, earning a majority of the vote. It wasn’t exactly the blowout that some polling predicted leading up to the contest, but it spoke to the grip he continues to have on the Republican Party. Still, second place was good enough for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and her supporters, and she vowed to hang on. Supporters react to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump being named the winner of the New Hampshire primary election at Trump’s primary night event at the Sheraton hotel in Nashua, N.H., on Jan. 23, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO “New Hampshire is first in the nation, it is not the last in the nation,” Haley said at her election night speech. “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go." Haley now has her sights set on the South Carolina primary, which is exactly one month away. (Nevada’s confusing presidential nominating contests technically come before that, but it doesn’t matter much since she’s competing in the primary and Trump is in the caucus.) Her supporters have argued that she has weeks to pick up more support before the Palmetto State. But more lawmakers fell in line behind Trump after his win, including Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) — a holdout in Senate leadership — Sen. Deb Fischer (Neb.), and battleground Rep. Brandon Williams (N.Y.). “To beat Biden, Republicans need to unite around a single candidate, and it’s clear that President Trump is Republican voters’ choice,” Cornyn said. It’s not just the Republican contest that is prolonged. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who earned around 20 percent of the vote on Tuesday, isn’t going anywhere either. He said after he conceded that he would wait until he had enough national name ID to be properly tested in a head-to-head matchup against Trump — and would drop out if he performed worse than Biden. Despite not being on the ballot and skipping campaigning in the Granite State, Biden notched a decisive win. With the Democratic National Committee stripping New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation primary status, his success was propelled by his allies’ million-dollar write-in effort. South Carolina is the next target for the Democratic primary on Feb. 3. Biden — who is actually investing in the state and will appear on the ballot — is heavily favored to win there. But it’s the general election that’s on Biden’s mind. “It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee,” Biden said in a statement on Tuesday night, thanking those who wrote his name in. “I want to say to all those Independents and Republicans who share our commitment to core values of our nation … to join us as Americans.” It’s Wednesday. What are your takeaways from last night? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 13 Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 15 Days until the NY-03 special election: 20 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 31 Days until Super Tuesday: 41 Days until the Republican National Convention: 174 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 209 Days until the 2024 election: 287 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.   A message from PREMION Political: Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now.   Presidential Big Board IN OTHER NH NEWS — Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has collected enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in New Hampshire, his campaign said. Kennedy qualified for the ballot in Utah — the first state to grant him access — earlier this month. LEGAL LOOK — “Two prominent No Labels donors are suing the centrist political group for pulling a ‘bait and switch’ by preparing to back a possible third-party presidential bid in 2024, after soliciting donations to support ‘bipartisan activism,’” Kelly Garrity writes. “Dan Webb, an attorney with No Labels, slammed the lawsuit as ‘frivolous,’ and without merit, suggesting in a statement that the Dursts’ complaint was part of a conspiracy by ‘partisan operatives,’ to ‘subvert No Labels’ ballot access work.’” THE VEEPSTAKES — Republican Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders said she would not be Trump’s vice president if he won the Republican nomination and said she would run for reelection in 2026. CAMPAIGN INTEL 2024 WATCH — Democratic Louisiana state Sen. Cleo Fields is running for newly drawn LA-06, which is expected to favor Democrats. Republican Rep. Garret Graves, who currently represents the district, indicated that he is running for reelection. LA-06 now stretches from northwest Louisiana all the way down to East Baton Rouge and is the state’s second majority Black district. Fields previously served in Congress in the mid-1990s in a district that has similarities to the new 6th, but the Supreme Court struck it down at the time as a racial gerrymander. … Businessperson Dan Frei is running in a primary against Republican Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02. Frei previously ran for Congress in 2014 and lost by around 6 points in the primary. NEXT IN NORTH DAKOTA — Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) is forgoing reelection to his at-large House seat to run for governor. Incumbent Republican Gov. Doug Burgum is not running for a third term this year. Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer, who’s up for reelection in November, said he’s not planning to run for governor. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — CHC BOLD PAC endorsed former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo in CA-16 and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales in OR-03 to replace retiring Reps. Anna Eshoo and Earl Blumenauer, respectively. … Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) endorsed Attorney General Bob Ferguson’s gubernatorial bid, joining other high-profile Democratic officials — including outgoing Gov. Jay Inslee — in doing so. IN THE STATES — “Wisconsin Republicans made a last-ditch effort Tuesday to avoid having the liberal-controlled state Supreme Court put in place new legislative district boundaries for the November election,” The AP’s Scott Bauer writes. “The Republican-controlled Senate passed new Senate and Assembly maps just over an hour after unveiling them, not giving the public or Democrats a chance to review them ahead of their release.   A message from PREMION Political:   AS SEEN ON TV CA-22 — The DCCC and Rudy Salas are up with a coordinated buy in the race against Republican Rep. David Valadao touting his work in the state legislature. The committee’s support of Salas — a repeat challenger to Valadao — is noteworthy, especially because there is another Democrat running, too. NY-03 — House Majority PAC, House Democrats’ main super PAC, is running its first ad for next month’s special election. It is backed by a $3.7 million buy and hits Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip on abortion. OH-Sen — Leadership for Ohio, a super PAC backing Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, touts his background as a veteran. CA-Sen — Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is running another ad featuring his mentee from a Big Brother program. POLL POSITION PRESIDENTIAL — PA GENERAL — Biden is leading Trump 47-39 in a hypothetical matchup with Trump, according to a poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (Jan. 15-21, 745 likely voters, MoE +/- 3.7 percentage points). … PA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has a slight lead over Republican challenger Dan McCormick in the same Susquehanna poll, 46-42. THE CASH DASH FAMILY MATTERS — Federal candidates spent over $700,000 on campaign funds for childcare from 2018 through 2022, according to an analysis from the Vote Mama Foundation, a group led by the former congressional candidate who lobbied the FEC in 2018 to allow funds to be used in this way. Close to $300,000 of that was spent in 2022. Just over half of the $700,000-plus total was spent by women, and around three-quarters of the total was spent by Democrats. STAFFING UP — Jen O’Malley Dillon and Mike Donilon, the White House chief of staff and a senior Biden adviser, are both poised to move to the president’s reelection campaign. O’Malley Dillon will be the functional head of the campaign (campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez will retain her post), and Donilon will focus on the campaign’s messaging and paid media strategy. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “No. I came. It’s an open event. It’s a public event. I just registered and came. I came to have fun.” — Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) on if he was invited to Trump’s campaign event.   A message from PREMION Political: Premium OTT for winning electoral & issue advocacy campaigns Nielsen reports TV viewers are continuing to choose streaming over cable. Premium OTT is the best way to engage those viewers for winning campaigns in 2024.  PREMION Political has the dedicated and experienced team- plus proven & new premium products, including programmatic, dynamic creative, and incremental reach attribution- to help you win. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential here.     Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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