The voters to watch in New Hampshire on Tuesday

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Jan 24, 2024 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez Presented by TOP LINE New Hampshire could be Nikki Haley’s last stand. And luckily for her, a key part of her base is overrepresented in the Granite State. College-educated voters are among Haley’s most ardent supporters. And in high-stakes New Hampshire, there are plenty of them. The Granite State’s percentage of college-educated residents is higher than the national average, with over 40 percent of New Hampshire residents 25 and older having at least a bachelor’s degree. Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley holds a beer and chats with supporters and diners at T-Bones Restaurant with New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu at a campaign event in Concord, N.H. on Jan. 22, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO Haley faces an uphill battle against Donald Trump today. Her supporters in recent days have sought to downplay expectations, arguing that she has weeks to pick up more support before South Carolina. And SFA Inc., her super PAC, put out a memo calling Trump “for all intents and purposes … an incumbent president.” But Trump has historically been weak among college-educated voters. In the 2016 New Hampshire primary, he won a bit over 40 percent of votes in municipalities where fewer than 20 percent of adults are college graduates. He won just 28 percent of votes in municipalities where more than 60 percent of adults have a college degree. That doesn’t mean Haley has a lock on the group. Some college-educated Republicans have shifted to Trump this cycle. But in Iowa last week, Trump was the candidate of choice among voters with some college education or less, according to exit polls from the caucuses: Around two-thirds of those voters supported him over the other Republican candidates. He also won a plurality of caucus-goers who were college graduates, with over one-third voting for him — although the cracks here among his support is more apparent. Haley was not far behind, with 28 percent of college-educated Iowans backing her. And the one county where she notched a win — a one-vote victory, but a win nonetheless — was Johnson, which is home to the University of Iowa. In Story County, where Iowa State is located, Haley came in at around 100 votes behind Trump. Complicating this math is the narrowed primary field. Although Haley’s supporters are banking on Chris Christie’s former base to turn over to her now that he is out of the race, the same could be said of those who planned to vote for Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy and could now turn to Trump. Haley has indicated that she’s in it for the long haul post-New Hampshire, but she’s going to need to topple Trump — or come very close in second — to keep up the momentum. Make sure to keep up with all of the action on our live blog. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET in most of the state, with the latest closing at 8 p.m. In 2020, the first results were reported around a half hour after polls closed. Happy Election Day. What’s going on in New Hampshire and beyond? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 14 Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 16 Days until the NY-03 special election: 21 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 32 Days until Super Tuesday: 42 Days until the Republican National Convention: 175 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 210 Days until the 2024 election: 288 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.   A message from PREMION Political: Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now.   Presidential Big Board HALEY’S COMET — Haley is “testing the limits of how much GOP primary voters care about gender,” Natalie Allison writes. She’s already “gone farther than any Republican woman before her who ran for president,” but is running behind Trump by double digits in New Hampshire and is only polling about even with him among women. ANOTHER ONE — Trump secured another notable congressional endorsement, this time from South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace. Mace, who had Haley’s backing when going up against a Trump-endorsed challenger in the midterms, has had a rocky relationship with the former president. NO TO NO LABELS — Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) isn’t open to a No Labels bid, after all. Despite saying over the weekend that he would consider running on the centrist third-party ticket, he said on Monday that he “cannot imagine doing so.” RISE OF THE INFLUENCERS — Priorities USA, the pro-President Joe Biden super PAC, is investing $1 million to run a paid social media influencer program, Rebecca Kern reports. CAMPAIGN INTEL RETIREMENT RADAR — Republican North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is not running for a third term later this year. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Club for Growth PAC endorsed Bo Hines in the open race for NC-06, a deep red seat following redistricting. It’s a crowded GOP primary, including Trump-endorsed Addison McDowell and former Rep. Mark Walker. Hines is a repeat candidate, narrowly losing his bid for NC-13 in the midterms. … Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) endorsed Democratic state Rep. Katrina Shankland, who’s vying to challenge Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in WI-03. … Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.) endorsed Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for Senate over fellow Rep. David Trone. PICKING SIDES — DCCC will run coordinated ads with Rudy Salas as he tries for another run against Republican Rep. David Valadao. “The DCCC’s decision to back returning challenger Salas over Democratic newcomer, state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, underscores the high stakes in one of this year’s most closely watched races,” Lara Korte writes. IN THE STATES — The Republican State Leadership Committee released its top legislative targets for 2024. That includes defending Republican majorities in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky and Nebraska; and flipping Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. The RSLC also listed California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Nevada, New York, Oregon and Washington as places to chip away at Democratic majorities.   A message from PREMION Political:   AS SEEN ON TV PRESIDENTIAL — Biden’s campaign is running a spot in South Carolina touting his policy achievements for Black Americans and encouraging people to vote early. The first sanctioned Democratic primary is next Saturday. WV-Sen — Defend American Jobs is up with an ad touting Republican Gov. Jim Justice’s conservative credentials. AL-01 — Rep. Barry Moore is firing back in the ad war with Rep. Jerry Carl in March’s member-on-member primary. Moore calls himself “the actual conservative for Congress” after Carl has been blanketing the airwaves for months with his own ads. Moore’s ad doesn’t mention Carl. AL-02 — Former Alabama Republican state Sen. Dick Brewbaker is up with his first spot in the state’s newly created congressional district, which is a likely Democratic pickup. He emphasizes “common sense” and references his time in the state legislature. CA-20 — Republican California state Assemblymember Vince Fong is going right for Biden in his opening message in the race for Kevin McCarthy’s seat. “The Biden administration's border policy has been a complete disaster,” Fong, who was endorsed by McCarthy, says. “I'll stand up to the liberal elites and fight to secure our Southern border.” NC-06 — Hines is also going after Biden’s border policies — and vows to “work with President Trump to shut down our Southern border” once he gets to Congress. POLL POSITION MO-Gov — Republican Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft has a double-digit lead over his primary opponents, according to a poll conducted by Remington Research Group, a Republican pollster, for Missouri Scout. Ashcroft has 34 percent of support, followed by Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, with 20 percent. State Sen. Bill Eigel earns 4 percent (Jan. 17-18, 806 likely Republican primary voters, MoE +/- 3.3 percentage points). STAFFING UP — Preston Elliott will be independent expenditure director at the DSCC. He most recently was campaign manager for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s 2022 reelection. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — "I’m not going to curse her with that pronouncement." — Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) on if he's going to endorse Haley.   A message from PREMION Political: Premium OTT for winning electoral & issue advocacy campaigns Nielsen reports TV viewers are continuing to choose streaming over cable. Premium OTT is the best way to engage those viewers for winning campaigns in 2024.  PREMION Political has the dedicated and experienced team- plus proven & new premium products, including programmatic, dynamic creative, and incremental reach attribution- to help you win. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential here.     Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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