| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE NO LABELS PRIMARY — Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) said he would consider a presidential run on the No Labels ticket if his Democratic primary campaign against President JOE BIDEN falls short, per NYT’s Reid Epstein.
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As in Iowa, there is a massive enthusiasm gap between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | HALEY’S COMEDOWN — Good morning from New Hampshire, where the temperature outside ticked up a couple of degrees since yesterday — and so did DONALD TRUMP’s lead over NIKKI HALEY. According to this morning’s tracking poll from Suffolk University, Trump’s lead has grown from 17 to 19 points (Trump 55%, Haley 36%). Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ support dropped 1 point, from 6% to 5%. As in Iowa, there is a massive enthusiasm gap between Trump and Haley. Trump supporters overwhelmingly say their vote is for him rather than against Haley (93% to 5%), while Haley voters largely see her as a vessel to defeat the former president (52% for her, 39% against Trump). The New Hampshire electorate remains pretty frozen: Eighty-seven percent of respondents in the poll say they are “not at all likely” or “not very likely” to change their minds before voting Tuesday. If Haley was hoping to capitalize on a demographically friendlier New England electorate, the poll also had bad news. Forty-six percent of the respondents were non-Republicans (independents or not yet registered), and almost 70% attended some college, are college graduates or hold advanced degrees. More than half make more than $100,000 a year. And yet despite this independent-heavy, college-educated and financially well-off electorate — all demographics that fit the Haley voter profile — Trump appears to be cruising to a comfortable victory. A new CNN poll shows a slightly closer race, with Trump up over Haley 50% to 39%, though that’s an increase in his lead from the last CNN poll of the state in January, when Trump had a 39% to 32% lead. Grim polling news for Haley or not, the vestiges of the pre-Trump Republican Party continue to mount a last-minute effort to rally against the former president: — The New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed Haley overnight. After decades of backing anti-establishment candidates such as RONALD REAGAN in 1980, PAT BUCHANAN in 1992 and 1996, JOHN McCAIN in 2008 and NEWT GINGRICH in 2012, the Union Leader has been fiercely anti-Trump since 2016, when it endorsed CHRIS CHRISTIE. The conservative paper never forgave Christie for embracing Trump and savaged him in editorials this time around. Haley “is catching fire for good reason,” the paper editorializes. “She is a smart, thoughtful, experienced candidate who is ready to be the next president of these great United States. She is easily the most qualified candidate on either ballot.” Without mentioning them by name, the paper lumps together Trump (“the elephant in the room”) and Biden (“the rather old donkey hiding in the White House”) and, mixing the animal metaphors a bit, claims Haley “can run circles around the dinosaurs from the last two administrations, backwards and in heels.” While we have long indulged in comet puns around here, the Union Leader has a more dramatic celestial analogy to describe Haley’s potential to defeat both Trump and Biden. “Nikki Haley is,” the paper concludes, “the fireball from the heavens to wipe them out.” — ASA HUTCHINSON also endorsed Haley. “Anyone who believes Donald Trump will unite this country has been asleep over the last 8 years,” he wrote on X. “Trump intentionally tries to divide America and will continue to do so. Go @NikkiHaley.” — New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU is going all out against Trump. Per WaPo, “For Sununu, the state’s popular governor, the contest represents a last-ditch effort to influence the future of the Republican Party, which he has repeatedly said should not include Trump, even if much of his party disagrees.” The governor’s anti-Trump sentiment goes only so far. He says he will still support Trump over Biden in the general election if Trump is the GOP nominee. — Haley is getting much more super PAC help than Trump is. She “has been by far the biggest beneficiary of super PAC spending in New Hampshire,” reports Jessica Piper. “The total spent between Haley’s campaign and the super PACs supporting her is nearly double the $15.3 million that has been spent on air by Trump’s campaign and his super PAC, MAGA Inc.” — Wall Street is planning for a post-N.H. future for Haley. Per Bloomberg, “Wall Street billionaires STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER, HENRY KRAVIS, KEN LANGONE and CLIFF ASNESS are co-hosting a fundraiser for Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign on Jan. 30 in New York City.” — Haley: Trump = Biden. Haley is using Trump’s bizarre claim that Haley was in charge of Capitol security on Jan. 6 — apparently confusing her with then-Speaker NANCY PELOSI, against whom he’s used that line in the past — to compare him to Biden. “What is he talking about?” Haley told a crowd yesterday, per Natalie Allison. “I wasn’t in D.C. on Jan. 6. I wasn’t at the Capitol. But you know what, look at Joe Biden two years ago and look at him today. That’s just what happens. We have to be honest about that.” Tying Trump and Biden together is a core part of Haley’s closing message. “Do you want more of the same or do you want to go in a different direction? And more of the same isn’t just Joe Biden, it's also Donald Trump,” Haley said at a stop in Rindge, New Hampshire, per Sam Stein. “Are we going to leave our kids two presidential candidates who are in their 80s? Really?” At another stop, in Petersborough, Haley noted Trump’s history of saying BARACK OBAMA was his opponent. “He got confused and said he was running against Obama — he never ran against Obama!” Haley said, per Semafor’s Dave Weigel. “Don’t put our country at risk like this.” Despite the stepped-up criticism, the conventional wisdom about Haley’s campaign here was summed up in the headline of this Dan Balz piece in the Post: “Haley needs a New Hampshire jolt to stop Trump. But where’s the energy?”
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: Every January, NRF convenes the most extraordinary retail industry leaders and partners in New York City for its annual conference and expo. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show will bring together 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries for three days of learning, collaboration and discovery. Retail leaders will connect with 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate visionary individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more. | | | The Trump news in New Hampshire is all about his confidence in an overwhelming victory Tuesday: — The Trump campaign trail has turned into running mate tryouts. Alex Isenstadt and Meridith McGraw report on the roster of VP aspirants who have been making the case for Trump in N.H.: Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.); Sens. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) and TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.); Govs. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS (Ark.), KRISTI NOEM (S.D.) and DOUG BURGUM (N.D.); BEN CARSON and VIVEK RAMASWAMY. “At each of their stops,” Alex and Meridith write, “the contenders are confronting the same question over and over: Would they take the job?” They all demur, but nobody is making any Shermanesque pronouncements. Stefanik wins the prize for most absurd statement in pursuit of the job. “The reality is Nikki Haley is relying on Democrats, just like Nancy Pelosi, to try to have a desperate showing,” she said in response to questions about Trump confusing Haley with Pelosi. — The Trump campaign is pressuring Haley to exit the race if she loses on Tuesday. “She should drop out,” CHRIS LaCIVITA told reporters in Manchester before Trump’s rally last night, per Sam. A group of South Carolina lawmakers that came to New Hampshire to boost Trump had a similar message after the rally. “When Trump wins, overwhelmingly, we gotta get behind him,” Rep. WILLIAM TIMMONS (R-S.C.), said, per Lisa Kashinsky. “I don’t foresee any world in which she wins on Tuesday, that’s just not going to happen.” — Rally Trump is back. After his Fox News town hall in Iowa, where Trump was surprisingly disciplined (for him) in answers to questions on topics ranging from abortion rights to being an aspiring dictator, the MAGAfied Trump that the Biden campaign is eager to face has returned to the campaign trail. At his rally in Manchester last night, Trump praised autocratic Hungarian PM VIKTOR ORBAN (“It’s nice to have a strong man running your country”) and made a dramatic new historical argument about why presidents require criminal immunity (HARRY TRUMAN would not have used nukes against Japan in World War II). As WaPo’s Hannah Knowles and Meryl Kornfield get at in their long read on the Trump movement, the former president’s supporters seem to prefer rally Trump over Fox News town hall Trump. Finally, the DeSantis death march continues apace: — DeSantis canceled his TV appearances for today (after saying last week that his big mistake has been not doing enough media interviews), and his campaign said he’s returning to New Hampshire today. “Meet the Press” seems to have taken the cancellation particularly poorly, as this morning NBC posted this devastating piece about the governor’s campaign. Check out POLITICO’s minute-by-minute blanket coverage of the New Hampshire primary here Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. SUNDAY BEST … — Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER on whether Biden should emphasize abortion more in his reelect, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “It would be good if he did. I know that one tenet of his belief system is that women and only women — with their families and health care professionals — are the ones who know what decision is right for them. … I don’t think it would hurt. I think people want to know that this is a president that is fighting.” More from Kelly Garrity — Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) on Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s opposition to a two-state solution, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “This wouldn’t be the first time that there is some tension between Prime Minister Netanyahu, his personal political goals and aims, and the challenges of crafting a positive, peaceful path forward for the Israeli and Palestinian people. … Despite some of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rhetoric, there is a real prospect for regional peace. That happens because of President Biden’s leadership. … This is a moment where the Israeli public needs to choose what is the best path forward.” — New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU on whether New Hampshire is make or break for Haley, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “No. She doesn’t have to win. I mean, look, nobody goes from single digits in December to ‘you absolutely have to win’ in January. I think that’s a media expectation that’s being set out there. … And people don’t realize that South Carolina isn’t next week. It’s three or four weeks away, and Nikki’s going to have a lot of time to build on the momentum she’s already created.” — Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) on facing blowback for supporting DeSantis over Trump, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I’ve got the Trump antibodies. He came at me for opposing the CARES Act. I was the only congressman who did. I said it was going to cause inflation, that it would cause shortages. And oh, by the way, it funded the mail-in ballots and spent $2 trillion. … Trump came at me and I won my reelection, so I'm not worried about it.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   Every day, NRF stands up for the people, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will leave Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, in the afternoon for New Castle, Delaware, before returning to the beach. VP KAMALA HARRIS has nothing on her public schedule.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | |  Brett McGurk is reportedly heading to Egypt and Qatar this week to work on the hostage talks. | Mazen Mahdi/AFP via Getty Images | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. SEARCHING FOR A SOLUTION: Israel and Hamas are in early stages of talks with the U.S., Egypt and Qatar, which are urging the two sides to commit to their plan for a phased hostage-release schedule that would ultimately end the war, WSJ’s Summer Said scooped from Dubai. Neither side has agreed to it and there’s a long way to go, but the U.S.-backed negotiations could at least offer a glimmer of potential progress. BRETT McGURK is heading to Egypt and Qatar this week to work on the hostage talks, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. The work on negotiations comes as Israel is struggling to achieve its aims in the war: The U.S. estimates that Israel has killed only 20% to 30% of Hamas fighters, WSJ’s Nancy Youssef, Jared Malsin and Carrie Keller-Lynn report, even as it has laid waste to Gaza and killed more than 25,000 Palestinians. Netanyahu nonetheless yet again rejected Biden’s plan for a Palestinian state and sovereignty after the war. At the same time, NBC’s Scott Wong and Andrea Mitchell report, pro-Israel Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill are losing faith in Netanyahu’s leadership, with national security leaders even quietly wondering whether he wants to keep the bloodshed going so that he can remain in power. 2. THE WHISPER CAMPAIGN: “House GOP already considering a future without Johnson,” by Olivia Beavers: “A growing number of House Republicans are increasingly frustrated with [Speaker MIKE] JOHNSON’s leadership and whispering about whether he can hang on to his role after 2024 — if he even makes it that far. Despite serving barely three months as speaker, the Louisianan is already facing an immediate threat from Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE of Georgia … Interviews with more than a dozen GOP lawmakers revealed a consensus that Johnson would have serious trouble staying in power after an electoral defeat [in November].” 3. FANI WILLIS’ BIG MESS: NORM EISEN yesterday became one of the first big voices to call for the Fulton County, Georgia, DA to step aside from the 2020 election subversion cases, per WaPo’s Amy Gardner. He said the questions around whether she had an improper relationship with special prosecutor NATHAN WADE threaten to derail the high-profile prosecutions. New details reported by NYT’s Serge Kovaleski and Richard Fausset suggest that Willis and Wade may have gotten close starting in 2019; “[a] review of Mr. Wade’s more than two decades as a lawyer by The New York Times also raises the issue of his qualifications, and whether they were sufficient to justify his appointment.” 4. THE STEVE GARVEY GAMBLE: “How a Baseball Legend Became California’s Biggest Political Longshot,” by Lara Korte in Compton for POLITICO Magazine: “For the first time in a long time, Republicans in California feel they just might stand a chance at statewide office — even if that chance isn’t all that great. Still, so far Garvey appears to be running his race like a cameo, popping up in campaign stops just like he did on Arli$$, Baywatch and The Young and the Restless back in the day. He’ll talk all day about baseball, career politicians and the need for teamwork in Washington. Just don’t ask the first-time politician to get specific about the issues.”
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   We are retail’s greatest advocates, uniting an industry of leaders and boundary breakers around complex issues and bold opportunities. Learn more. | | | 5. SHOPPING FOR VOTERS: Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT’s (R-Colo.) decision to jump to a less competitive district doesn’t mean she’s guaranteed to remain in Congress, AP’s Jesse Bedayn reports from the strikingly named Last Chance, Colorado: “Boebert has become the outsider and will have to live down the ‘carpetbagger’ label that her new opponents are already lobbing her way.” Her name recognition and national status as a hard-right fighter gives her a leg up with her new district’s very conservative voters. But the primary is competitive, and the AP finds that voters haven’t forgotten about the “Beetlejuice” groping incident. 6. DEEP DIVE: “How Nikki Haley’s Lean Years Led Her Into an Ethical Thicket,” by NYT’s Sharon LaFraniere and Alexandra Berzon: “In South Carolina, the ethics investigation of Ms. Haley undermined her image as a broom-sweeping crusader working to shake up the political establishment — a persona she is still cultivating. … The questions about Ms. Haley’s potential conflicts revealed how her work in politics had produced financial dividends almost from the beginning of her career in public life.” 7. THE LONG GAME: The recent series of U.S. strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen could foreshadow a prolonged military campaign, WaPo’s Missy Ryan, John Hudson and Abigail Hauslohner report. The U.S. sees the goal of the strikes as degrading some of the Houthis’ high-level capabilities to attack ships in the Red Sea, even though they’ve failed thus far as a deterrent. Though officials say the strikes won’t last for years, there is no end date yet. And some American officials are worried “that an open-ended operation could derail the war-ravaged country’s fragile peace and pull Washington into another unpredictable Middle Eastern conflict.” Related read: “Houthis seek more Iranian weapons to step up Red Sea attacks, intel shows,” by Erin Banco and Lara Seligman 8. WHEN THE US IS AN UNRELIABLE ALLY: “Taiwan’s Doubts About America Are Growing. That Could Be Dangerous,” by NYT’s Damien Cave and Amy Chang Chien: “As they watch Washington deadlock on military aid for Ukraine and Israel, and try to imagine what the United States would actually do for Taiwan in a crisis, faith in America is plummeting. … The risk for Taiwan — and those who see it as a first line of defense that, if lost to Beijing, would give China greater power to dominate Asia — is that distrust toward the United States could make it easier for the island to be swallowed up.” 9. MEGATREND: Following decades of falling numbers, executions in the U.S. are leaping up again in the past couple of years, Lara Bazelon writes in POLITICO Magazine. The trend has been driven by prosecutors and governors positioning themselves as tough on crime — and by a Supreme Court conservative supermajority that has shown it’s far less likely to stop capital punishment. And growing use of the death penalty is due to start spreading beyond just the Deep South.
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Donald Trump could be on a “suicide mission” before Judge Lewis Kaplan tomorrow. Ted Cruz and other Republicans were allegedly targeted by Qatari spies. Dan Crenshaw is taking on United Airlines. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a reception Friday night dedicating the new Charlie and Lisa Spies Fellows Lounge at the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service: Charlie and Lisa Spies, Mo Elleithee, Maria Cancian, Sam Feist, Marc Short, Machalagh Carr, Laura Barrón-López, Scott Singer, Mike Dubke, Dan Lamothe, Deanne Millison, Brenda Gianiny, Charlotte Clymer, Rory Cooper, Anatole Jenkins, Jonae Wartel, Mike Ricci, Erin Clark, Nathan and Jen Mormile Daschle, Neil and Damon Alpert, and Pamela Gaylin Ryder. MEDIA MOVE — Vinny Steves is now a comms manager at Dow Jones supporting the WSJ and more. He most recently was at Peacock and is an alum of ABC’s “This Week.” WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Rosie Gray, a freelance writer and Atlantic and BuzzFeed alum, and Ben Judah, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, welcomed Raphael Edward Judah on Jan. 12. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) … former AG Eric Holder … Tyler Cowen … Jordan Grossman … Will Holley of Firehouse Strategies … CNN’s Sam Feist … Getty Images’ Win McNamee … John Shinkle … POLITICO’s Jen Haberkorn … Will Bunch … Bob Sensenbrenner … ABC’s Chris Donovan … Edelman’s Sean Neary, Lyla Shaibi and Lauren Grella … Michael Comer of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s office … Becca Glover of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s office ... Michael Lemov ... Steve Rosenthal ... Campbell Spencer of FORA Partners … Loren DeJonge Schulman … former Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.) … former Commerce Secretary Gary Locke … Matt Cooper (6-0) … Paloma Chacon of Sen. John Kennedy’s (R-La.) office … Jim Davidson ... Jonathan Grella of JAG Public Affairs … American Cleaning Institute’s Corey Brooks Pace … Jack Weiss … Sarah Sellman of Gillibrand for Senate and the New York Majority Fund Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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