| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
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Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is betting big on an unusual closing message in New Hampshire this week. | Carolyn Kaster/AP | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | NEW HAMPSHIRE SNOOZER? — If Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary is the final stand for the anti-DONALD TRUMP wing of the Republican Party — just ask ASA HUTCHINSON! — you’ll have a tough time finding that sense of urgency on the ground. Only yesterday did NIKKI HALEY launch the traditional Granite State final-week barnstorm, racing from town to town, while she and her allies modulated expectations from beating DONALD TRUMP on Tuesday to a second-place finish. RON DeSANTIS has turned his attention to South Carolina, while Trump is leaning on his signature rallies to get his voters out in the final days. It all underscores how the results in Iowa, with Trump’s dominant win and Haley’s third-place finish, have sucked much of the oxygen out of the race and moved Trump closer to the status of presumptive nominee. Haley is betting big on an unusual closing message, our colleague Natalie Alison reports this morning: a three-minute(!) TV ad that will air Monday on New Hampshire stations that highlights her foreign policy chops. It features the mother of OTTO WARMBIER — the American imprisoned by North Korea who fell into a coma then died after being returned to the U.S. — praising Haley as an ally in a difficult time. Trump, meanwhile, has the veepstakes on his mind. Last night in Concord, Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) delivered an “effusive endorsement in a rousing call-and-response speech that resembled a vice presidential tryout,” AP’s Meg Kinnard, Jill Colvin and Jonathan Cooper report, while Trump appeared to put the final nail in Haley’s VP hopes: “She is OK, but she is not presidential timber,” he told the crowd, per Alex Isenstadt. “And when I say that, that probably means she is not going to be chosen as the vice president.” That’s not all: Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) will stump with Trump tonight in Manchester (forecast: 15 degrees) while Arkansas Gov. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS will appear on “Face the Nation” tomorrow to tout her recent Trump endorsement. As JMart says, it’s all happening. BIDEN’S EMERGING AGENDA — Meanwhile, WaPo’s Jeff Stein has a look this morning at how President JOE BIDEN is looking to freshen his policy platform as readies for a repeat battle with Trump. Among the ideas his inner circle are discussing is a new tax on the rich to shore up Social Security, an idea meant to contrast with Trump, who opposes cuts to the program but hasn’t detailed a plan to keep it solvent. It’s all part of an ongoing conversation happening ahead of the State of the Union address and White House budget proposal coming next month — not to mention Trump’s likely emergence as presumptive GOP nominee. “The Biden campaign and White House officials are beginning to wrestle with the tension between emphasizing his first-term accomplishments and identifying new goals to achieve in his second term, while voters remain unhappy with the state of the U.S. economy even though it’s shown surprising resilience and strength,” Jeff writes. A DISH BEST SERVED COLD — Just a few months ago, Rep. GARRET GRAVES (R-La.) was the right-hand man to the speaker of the House. Now he’s on the cusp of a forced early retirement. Yesterday, under threat of federal court intervention, the GOP-controlled Louisiana state legislature approved a new congressional map drawing two Black-majority districts — and effectively squeezing Graves out of his seat after five terms while leaving the district of a more junior colleague, Rep. JULIA LETLOW, intact. There are just layers of intrigue here, starting with the hostile relationship between Graves and his delegation-mate, House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE. Graves, a close KEVIN McCARTHY ally, went out his way to try to sabotage Scalise’s brief speakership bid (an effort Scalise later reflected on in a Playbook Deep Dive interview). While Scalise doesn’t have a direct role in redrawing the maps — and, we’re told, had nothing to do with the targeting of Graves — he is an ally of newly installed Gov. JEFF LANDRY, who has signaled he’ll sign the legislation drawing Graves out of a seat. Graves made plenty of enemies in the governor’s office. He toyed with a run of his own before endorsing a Landry rival and aggressively campaigning for his opponent across the state. As recently as Wednesday, Graves was betting on a different outcome, telling Kelsey Brugger of E&E News: “It is my plan to run again — absolutely. But I’ll also say — I want to be very clear — that I expect to run in a district that looks a lot like the one that we have today. That we won by nearly 81 percent.” (So much for that: 59% of voters in the new district backed Biden in 2020.) But given the long memories in politics — especially Louisiana politics — perhaps it should not have been. It comes a few months after Graves stepped down as assistant speaker, a leadership position McCarthy had bestowed on him that he effectively used to sideline his rival Scalise and, we’re told, step on other leaders’ toes. (During critical votes, for instance, Graves would cajole and make promises to rank-and-file members, complicating Whip TOM EMMER’s job.) Following the election of MIKE JOHNSON, another Louisianan, multiple leadership offices made clear to the new speaker and his inner circle that Graves hadn’t been a team player and needed to go. We’re told that Johnson understood — and had, in fact, witnessed the awkward dynamics as a junior member of leadership. The rest is history. Notably, Johnson made a last-minute plea to his party to keep Graves' seat. But state GOP sources said he’d already made too many enemies. “He made himself the odd man out,” Louisiana State University professor ROBERT MANN told Brugger. “He made a bet on McCarthy. He was left without anyone to protect him.” Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: Every January, NRF convenes the most extraordinary retail industry leaders and partners in New York City for its annual conference and expo. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show will bring together 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries for three days of learning, collaboration and discovery. Retail leaders will connect with 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate visionary individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more. | | | DAVOS DOWNLOAD — A new Compass from Nahal Toosi: “Populism Keeps Rattling the Globe. Elites Have No Idea What to Do.”
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   Every day, NRF stands up for the people, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have no public events scheduled.
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   We are retail’s greatest advocates, uniting an industry of leaders and boundary breakers around complex issues and bold opportunities. Learn more. | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | |  Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's (I-Ariz.) decision over her political future could impact the entire map for Senate Republicans. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. SURVEYING THE SENATE MAP: As Senate Republicans eye their chances to regain control of the chamber in 2024, Arizona Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA and Republican Montana Rep. MATT ROSENDALE’s decisions to run “will have crucial implications across the entire map, where Republicans either need to net two seats or win the presidency and gain just one,” Burgess Everett and Ally Mutnick report this morning in a deep dive on the Senate race state of play. “If Sinema runs for a second term, she would create an unpredictable three-way race as an underdog independent attempting to peel voters from Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) and Republican KARI LAKE, her party’s presumptive nominee. Rosendale, meanwhile, would create a massive headache for Republicans if he follows through on months of build-up and challenges TIM SHEEHY for the GOP nomination in Montana, which is one of the party’s top two Senate targets.” 2. MORE REASONS FOR BORDER DEAL PESSIMISM: The lead from NYT’s Annie Karni and Karoun Demirjian’s story this morning: Shot: “Senator JAMES LANKFORD, the Oklahoma Republican and staunch conservative, this week trumpeted the immigration compromise he has been negotiating … as one shaping up to be ‘by far, the most conservative border security bill in four decades.’” Chaser: “Speaker Mike Johnson, in contrast, sent out a fund-raising message on Friday denouncing the forthcoming deal as a Democratic con. ‘My answer is NO. Absolutely NOT,’ his message said, adding, ‘This is the hill I’ll die on.’” 3. EYEBROW RAISE: “Ga. prosecutor in Trump case paid for flights with Fani Willis, filing shows,” by WaPo’s Amy Gardner and Holly Bailey: “[Newly released] bank statements may corroborate an accusation leveled against [Fulton County AG FANI] WILLIS and prosecutor NATHAN WADE by one of Trump’s co-defendants that they have been engaged in an improper personal relationship. … Wade purchased tickets for himself and Willis on two occasions, according to the statements — a trip to Miami purchased in October 2022 on American Airlines, and a second trip purchased in April 2023 to San Francisco on Delta Air Lines.” More context: “Neither Wade nor Willis have directly addressed the allegations, and a spokesman for Willis said any response to court filings will happen in court. It is unknown whether Willis reimbursed Wade for the travel, or what the purpose of it was.” Related read: “Democrats Would Rather Not Talk About Fani Willis,” by NOTUS’ Ben T.N. Mause 4. EYEBROW RAISE, PART 2: Haley's New Hampshire state director campaigned on behalf of a "Democratic dark money organization willing Joe Biden to the White House, among other left-wing groups,” The Washington Examiner's Gabe Kaminsky scoops: “TYLER CLARK, who became Haley’s 2024 state director for the Granite State late last year, is listed on lobbying disclosures filed in New Hampshire as working in 2020 on behalf of Sixteen Thirty Fund, a nonprofit group managed by Arabella Advisors, the largest liberal dark money network in the United States. … The top Haley campaign staffer’s ties to Sixteen Thirty Fund could become a major liability for the ex-U.N. ambassador.” 5. OUR PART-TIME CONGRESS: “Congress keeps punting on the hard work, then leaving town for recess,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane: “Once the House on Thursday finished kicking the can on government funding until early March, lawmakers did what almost comes naturally at this point. They left town for a 10-day break, not returning until the night of Jan. 29. … All told, between now and late February, the House and the Senate will be in session at the same time just seven days, several of those coming on shortened fly-in/fly-out travel days.” 6. TRUMP ON TAPE: New video of DONALD TRUMP's closed-door meeting with New York state attorney general was made public on yesterday as a part of the former president's Manhattan civil fraud trial, AP’s Michael Sisak reports: “[Video] of the seven-hour, closed-door session last April shows the Republican presidential frontrunner’s demeanor going from calm and cool to indignant — at one point ripping Attorney General LETITIA JAMES lawsuit against him as a ‘disgrace’ and ‘a terrible thing.’” More details: “Trump, who contends James’ lawsuit is part of a politically motivated ‘witch hunt’ was demonstrative from the outset. The video shows him smirking and pouting his lips as the attorney general, a Democrat, introduced herself and told him that she was “committed to a fair and impartial legal process. … Judge ARTHUR ENGORON, who will decide the case because a jury is not allowed in this type of lawsuit, has said he hopes to have a ruling by the end of January.” 7. HOGAN HANGS ON: In an interview with The Hill’s Kevin Cirilli of The Hill, former Marylyand Gov. LARRY HOGAN says he still sees a “crack in the door” for a potential 2024 presidential run, The Hill’s Filip Timotija reports: “It’s not something I’m seeking. I really have no interest whatsoever in running a suicide mission or in being a spoiler or — you know, electing Donald Trump or Joe Biden. I didn’t completely slam the door to it,” Hogan said. 8. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Following a four-week lapse in direct communication, President JOE BIDEN and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU spoke via phone on Friday, revealing core disagreements over a potential road to Palestinian independence following the cessation of hostilities in Gaza emerged, AP’s Aamer Madhani and Zeke Miller report: “The leaders spoke frequently in the first weeks of the war. But the regular cadence of calls between Biden and Netanyahu, who have had a hot-and-cold relationship for over three decades, has slowed considerably. … In their most recent calls, Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu has grown more evident, even though the U.S. leader has been careful to reaffirm his support for Israel at each step.” 9. DOWNBALLOT IMPLICATIONS: “Why Katie Porter should root for a big Trump win in New Hampshire,” by Steve Shepard: “In two of the three polls conducted over the past month — including a POLITICO | Morning Consult poll in December — [Republican STEVE] GARVEY was in second place ahead of [Rep. KATIE] PORTER [D-Calif.] Porter, but within the margin of error. … What New Hampshire will help determine is just how motivating the presidential race will be for California Republicans. … A Trump blowout victory Tuesday could signal that the former president has the nomination all but locked up …But a Haley victory or near-upset in New Hampshire would be even better for Garvey.”
| | | CLICKER — "The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics," edited by Matt Wuerker – 16 funnies
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Jack Ohman | GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza: — “A Reporter’s Journey Into How the U.S. Funded the Bomb,” by NYT’s Catie Edmondson: “Watching ‘Oppenheimer,’ a journalist wondered (perhaps a bit obsessively): How did the president get the $2 billion secret project past Congress?” — “Don’t Kill Bill,” by Democracy Journal’s Will Marshall: “Is it really necessary to debate progressives again over Bill Clinton’s legacy?” — “Bill Clinton’s Long Economic Shadow,” by Democracy Journal’s Nelson Lichtenstein: “Will Marshall and I certainly agree on one point: Bill Clinton’s economic policies ‘were more progressive than he gets credit for.’” — “I Have a History of Getting in Trouble by Speaking My Mind,” by Air Mail’s Nicholas Clairmont: “Donald McNeil Jr. on the lessons of the pandemic—and his own sudden ouster from The New York Times.” — “Ethical Espionage,” by The New York Review’s Tamsin Shaw: “What moral principles should guide our intelligence-gathering agencies?” — “The Juror Who Found Herself Guilty,” by Michael Hall for Texas Monthly: “She was pressured into convicting a man she believed was innocent — and was haunted by remorse. Three decades later, she did something about it.” — “Here’s What I Learned as the U.S. Government’s UFO Hunter,” by Sean Kirkpatrick for Scientific American: “A forthcoming investigational report from an office of the Pentagon has found no evidence of aliens, only allegations circulated repeatedly by UFO claim advocates.” — “An American Girlhood in the Ozempic Era,” by The Cut’s Lisa Miller: “Adults are divided about giving children new drugs for weight loss. At 13, Maggie Ervie decided to take them.” — “Where Gummi Bears Come From,” by Bloomberg’s Deena Shanker: “Inside Haribo’s first US production facility, where making the chewy, rainbow-colored confections is the opposite of child’s play.” — “Lost Highway,” by Emily Gogolak for Harper’s Mag: “The trials of trucking school.”
| | | PLAYBOOKERS | | SPOTTED on Thursday night at separate tables at Cafe Milano: Jonathan Karl and Mike Feldman, Kevin O'Leary, Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), Scott Van Pelt, Anthony Fauci, Brittany Toscano Gore, Paul Strauss and Richard Strauss. TRANSITION — Abby Sonnier will be a senior consultant on FTI Consulting’s cybersecurity and data privacy crisis comms team. She previously was an associate cybersecurity analyst at Consortium Networks. ENGAGED — Will Hackman, senior officer for environmental policy at the Pew Charitable Trusts, and Paula HuYoung, who works on corporate meeting and event planning at CWT, got engaged on Wednesday in Front Royal, Va. right after they closed on their new home and walked in the door for the first time. The couple got engaged on the same day they matched on Hinge one year prior and the day before her birthday. He had her favorite flowers and a bottle of champagne on the floor, and a speaker playing their song, “I Choose You” by the SteelDrivers. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): National Women's Law Center’s Melissa Boteach HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) … Nikki Haley … White House’s Ian Sams … Kellyanne Conway … POLITICO’s Gavin Bade … Paul Mandelson … Robin Roberts of National Media … Bill Maher … Dan Schneider of Business Roundtable … CNN’s Diane Ruggiero … CBN’s Jenna Browder … Senate Banking GOP’s Ben Watson … FTI Consulting’s Shannon Bañaga … Emma Thomas of Feldman Strategies … WSJ’s James Grimaldi … CBS’ Maria Gavrilovic … Morton Abramowitz (91) … Sam Dealey of Monument Communications … Jessica Hanna … Purple Strategies’ Alec Jacobs … Chip Englander … Paola Ramos … former Reps. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) and Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) … Tracy Russo ... Merrill Hartson ... Elena Robertson … Sophie Khanahmadi ... Zack Walz … Elizabeth Ray of Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo’s office … Zach Beecher of America’s Frontier Fund … Carter Allen … Anti-Defamation League’s Dan Granot … Emily Vandegrift of Terra Davis Consulting … Abby Greensfelder … Al Kamen … Joe O’Dea … Pablo Enrique Carrillo THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): NBC “Meet the Press”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu … Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) … Steve Kornacki … Chuck Todd. Panel: Dasha Burns, Lanhee Chen, Jonathan Martin and Jen Psaki. CBS “Face the Nation”: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley … Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer … Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) … Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) … Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) . Panel: Brit Hume, Bret Baier, Harold Ford Jr. and Martha MacCallum. ABC “This Week”: Gov. Doug Burgum (R-N.D.) … Quentin Fulks … Jon Finer. Panel: Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.), Donna Brazile, Rachael Bade and Toluse Olorunnipa. CNN “State of the Union”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). Panel: Karen Finney, Amanda Carpenter and Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas). CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Panel: Jeff Zeleny, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Zolan Kanno-Youngs. … New Hampshire Panel: Josh Rogers and Jack Heath. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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