| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “21 Israeli troops are killed in the deadliest attack on the military since the Gaza offensive began,” by AP’s Josef Federman and Najib Jobain: “Hours later, the military announced that ground forces had encircled the southern city of Khan Younis, Gaza’s second largest. That marked a major advance, but it was unclear how much closer it would bring Israel to defeating Hamas or freeing Israeli hostages — two central war aims that have proved increasingly elusive.”
|  Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives to speak to supporters at a rally in Manchester, N.H., on Jan. 20, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | A FITN END? — Good morning from New Hampshire, which could make all the remaining GOP primaries irrelevant and sling us even more quickly into the JOE BIDEN-DONALD TRUMP rematch that Americans say they dread. Let’s dig into what to expect from both contests today … THE REPUBLICANS: Primaries are difficult to poll, and New Hampshire has a history of surprising pundits, but — Dixville Notch notwithstanding — Trump seems on the cusp of an enormous New Hampshire victory tonight that will, eventually, drive his last remaining opponent out of the race and make Trump the GOP presidential nominee for the third straight election. Could NIKKI HALEY still win? The great Granite State upsets this century came from intense rivalries between two candidates whose faceoff riveted the country. In 2000, New Hampshire reversed Iowa’s decision when JOHN McCAIN had his storied victory over GEORGE W. BUSH. In 2008, the state did the same when HILLARY CLINTON defeated BARACK OBAMA. These surges were seen in the polling and felt on the campaign trail. The Suffolk University tracking poll showed Clinton going from a 17-point deficit to 1-point advantage in the final five days. (She won by five points.) The Trump-Haley fight looks nothing like those previous showdowns. They never debated. Haley’s New Hampshire strategy has been risk-averse. Her events are listless. When a candidate suddenly catches fire in the final weekend of a primary race, curious voters suddenly flood their events. Haley’s final New Hampshire stops were modest, with none of the signs of a late surge. This morning’s final Globe/Suffolk/NBC10 tracking poll shows Trump hitting 60% support to Haley’s 38% — the widest spread all week. If Haley defeats Trump today, it will be one of the greatest primary upsets in history. An underappreciated feature of Trump’s strength against Haley in New Hampshire is that Trump has run a far more issues-based campaign than she has. While Trump’s personal insults and off-the-wall comments attract most of the media attention, Trump’s TV advertising over the last few days has been highly disciplined. It focuses on just two issues: immigration, hitting Haley from the right with specific references to unpopular (in a GOP primary) things she’s said, and Social Security, attacking her from the left by claiming she will raise the retirement age and gut benefits. Haley’s ads, meanwhile, are about electability, general exhaustion with Trump and Biden, and generational change. The experience of watching the evening news goes something like this: three positive Haley ads in which you learn she’s a fresh face but almost nothing about her policy positions, followed by two Trump attack ads that are purely about her policy positions. In his prepared remarks at his rallies, he hammers these same two issues early, generally before he goes off on the more colorful tangents that get so much attention. The Trump onslaught has defined Haley in ways she never did herself. Haley’s frustration with the Social Security attacks has been evident and is captured nicely in this scene from Jonathan Martin’s new column: “I was standing near [Gov. CHRIS] SUNUNU at a bakery on New Hampshire’s seacoast when Haley did a Fox News satellite interview about 20 feet away. He had just boasted to me about how Haley was the only candidate ‘earning it the right way,’ yet when she grew defensive during her TV hit, he couldn’t help but whisper how he wished she parried the questions. “‘How am I not a conservative?’ Haley demanded of her disembodied interlocutor, adding: ‘I’ve never once said I want to cut Social Security.’ “To which Sununu under his breath said what he wished she had also said: ‘I want to save Social Security.’” THE DEMOCRATS: There’s a chance that the results on the Democratic side offer a bigger surprise than the results on the GOP side. There have been fewer polls of the Democrats’ unsanctioned primary, and they show no clear view about the size of Biden’s lead. The last five polls, all taken this year, show Biden winning by as little as 33 points and as much as 69 points. In those polls, DEAN PHILLIPS has between 6% and 16%, while MARIANNE WILLIAMSON has between 2% and 9%. There are two other factors adding to the uncertainty. Biden’s name isn’t on the ballot and he hasn’t campaigned in the state. Instead, local Democratic leaders have run a write-in campaign on his behalf. But nobody knows how effective it will be. Progressive activists in the state have also organized a movement to write in the word “ceasefire” on the ballot to send Biden a message about his Israel policy. Given the weirdness of the race, it’s tough to handicap what a non-embarrassing number for Biden is. Under 60%? Under 50%? Less than whatever Trump’s total is? If the GOP contest is as uneventful as Iowa and tracks with the polling predictions, expect the media to wring more meaning out of the Biden results. The pre-spin for a potentially bad Biden night from his allies in New Hampshire stresses four points: (1) He won 8% here in 2020. (2) He’s not even on the ballot. (3) There are no delegates at stake. (4) Whatever may happen, Biden will romp to victory in South Carolina on Feb. 3. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: Local credit unions and community banks serve an essential role in supporting Main Street. So, when 10,000+ credit unions and community banks throughout the country oppose the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill, Congress should pay attention. Durbin-Marshall lines the pockets of corporate mega-stores by shifting costs and risks to credit unions, community banks, and their 140 million customers. Click here to learn more. | | | Here’s what else to read this morning … — Keep reading JMart’s romp through the state that includes these two other notable quotes from Sununu:
- On not calling MITCH McCONNELL in 2022, when Sununu decided not to run for the Senate: “Screw you, Mitch McConnell. I don’t work for you. I work for the people in the state.”
- On CHRIS CHRISTIE being upset that Sununu didn’t call before endorsing Haley: “So go have a beer with JOHN KASICH and see where that leads you … I mean, they’re just disgruntled, angry.”
— Then dig into this forward-looking examination of how Trump is bleeding support from moderates, via Sam Stein and Natalie Allison: “Donald Trump has a problem no matter what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday night: There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee.” — Finally, read this Brian Stelter dive into the public’s lack of interest in this primary and politics in general for Vanity Fair, a phenomenon he calls “The Great Tune-Out of 2024.”
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. At 2:45 p.m., the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs emerging threats subcommittee will hold a hearing on improving export controls enforcement. The House is out. 3 things to watch …
- Stop us if this sounds familiar: A Senate border deal is moving closer but isn’t done yet. Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic negotiator said yesterday it was “possible” voting could happen this week but that funding issues still need to be worked out. Pushback on the right continues to build, meanwhile, with Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) demanding that senators get to “review it [for] at least 3 weeks.”
- While the Senate waits, nominations continue apace: The chamber is on track to confirm three nominees to the Amtrak board of directors by the end of the day today before moving on to three district judges later in the week.
- While the GOP presidential primary is still being contested for at least one more day, it’s already over as far as the two men tasked with electing Republicans to Congress are concerned: On Sunday both Rep. RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.), the NRCC chair, and Sen. STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.), the NRSC chair, referred to Trump as the “presumptive nominee” in online posts. (h/t Sahil Kapur)
At the White House Biden and First Lady JILL BIDEN will travel to Manassas, Virginia, for a campaign event along with VP KAMALA HARRIS and First Gentleman DOUG EMHOFF.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE GOLDEN STATE POLITICAL ARENA: POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter provides a front row seat to the most important political news percolating in the state’s power centers, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley. Authors Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner deliver exclusive news, buzzy scoops and behind-the-scenes details that you simply will not get anywhere else. Subscribe today and stay ahead of the game! | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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Palestinians who flee from Khan Younis from Israeli ground and air offensive on the Gaza Strip arrive in Rafah, southern Gaza, Jan. 22. | Fatima Shbair/AP | LATEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST — Israeli officials have offered Hamas, through Egyptian and Qatari mediators, a plan that would free all remaining captives held in Gaza and temporarily halt hostilities for up to two months — the longest period of ceasefire the country offered Hamas since the start of the war, Axios’ Barak Ravid scoops: “Israeli officials said they are waiting for a response from Hamas but stressed they are cautiously optimistic about the ability to make progress in the coming days.” More details: “[The] deal would include the release of all remaining hostages who are alive and the return of the bodies of dead hostages in several phases. … The officials said Israel proposed the overall period of pause for the completion of the release of all hostages in the different phases could reach up to two months.” More top reads:
2024 WATCH
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Rep. Dean Phillips walked back earlier comments about pursuing a potential third-party bid for president. | Gaelen Morse/Getty Images | THE BIG TAKEBACK — Longshot Democratic presidential candidate Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) walked back his statement from a Sunday campaign event that he would considering running on a No Labels ticket, now insisting he wouldn’t run on on the third-party ticket if it aided in Trump’s re-election, Elena Schneider and Sam Stein report: “His chief strategist also ruled out the idea he would run for president on a No Labels ticket should his current Democratic primary bid fail on Monday.” In his own words: “Phillips argued on Monday that if VIVEK RAMASWAMY or RON DeSANTIS, Republican presidential candidates who dropped out since Iowa, were ‘at the top of a third-party ticket,’ then ‘that would draw votes from President Trump.’ But, he said, ‘I cannot imagine that the data would suggest that that would be a path that would be successful. I should have made that more clear.’” More top reads:
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition:   | | | TRUMP CARDS
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Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will not be required to sit for a scheduled deposition today. | Ben Gray/AP | GEORGIA ON MY MIND — A judge ruled yesterday that Fulton County District Attorney FANI WILLIS does not have to sit for a deposition today in the divorce proceeding of NATHAN WADE, the special prosecutor she hired to help lead the Georgia criminal case against Donald Trump and his associates, Betsy Woodruff Swan reports. The judge also revoked an order that sealed the divorce proceedings for the special prosecutor. The ruling comes after a “lawyer for co-defendant MIKE ROMAN claimed earlier this month in court that Willis was having an affair with [Wade]. …Roman said the relationship violates ethics rules and means Willis and Wade should be forced off the case.” BALLOT BATTLE — “Massachusetts ballot commission dismisses 14th Amendment case against Trump,” by CNN’s Marshall Cohen CONGRESS GOP’S GOT A FRIEND IN PENNSYLVANIA — Interviews with nearly a dozen Republican senators reveal their growing fondness for Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Penn.) following recent part-bucking statements on issues like border security and support for Israel, Ursula Perano reports this morning: “Just over a year ago, Senate Republicans were working hard to brand Fetterman as a younger version of Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) — an actual democratic socialist — who was unfit for office. Over the past three months, however, Fetterman showed a side of his ideology that seemed to genuinely startle his GOP colleagues.” DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Enforcement of China Forced-Labor Import Ban Needs to Be Much Tougher, Say U.S. Lawmakers,” by WSJ’s Richard Vanderford MORE POLITICS DEBATE IN THE GOLDEN STATE — POLITICO has a full rundown of last night's California Senate debate after candidates took the stage at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles to go head to head over issues including the Israel-Hamas war and the economy. “The showdown’s feistiest moments came as [Republican candidate STEVE] GARVEY wriggled — for a full ten minutes — out of Democrats’ attempt to pin him down on Trump. The former president is deeply toxic in much of liberal California, but Garvey risks alienating the state’s still-sizeable Republican electorate if he assails Trump. The most he said was that former President Joe Biden had not ‘been good for this country,’” Lara Korte and Jeremy White report. Speaking of feisty … “Character matters. That’s why Katie Porter is unfit for the United States Senate,” by Harley Rouda in the Orange County Register WHO’S NEXT — “Lookin’ for a fight,” by The Assembly’s Eric Frederick: “An insider and an outsider are vying to replace U.S. Rep. PATRICK McHENRY in a strongly Republican district in the foothills that wants a zealous warrior.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY MR. SUNSHINE — “Floridians wait to see which version of Ron DeSantis returns from the presidential campaign trail,” by AP’s Brendan Farrington THE WHITE HOUSE HAPPENING TODAY — “Biden, Harris team up to campaign for abortion rights in Virginia,” by AP’s Colleen Long and Chris Megerian: Notable: “Biden and Harris will be joined by their spouses, first lady Jill Biden and second gentleman Doug Emhoff. It’s the first time the four of them have appeared together since the campaign began, a reflection of the importance that Democrats are putting on abortion this year.” JUDICIARY SQUARE DEEP IN THE HEART — “U.S. Supreme Court says Texas can’t block federal agents from the border,” by The Texas Tribune’s William Melhado: “As migrants have attempted to get through the wire, Border Patrol has cut through parts of the barrier to assist injured people. Attorney General KEN PAXTON filed a lawsuit against DHS, claiming federal agents had illegally destroyed state property.” POLICY CORNER BANK ON IT — “Fed Review Clears Central Bank Officials of Violating Rules,” by WSJ’s Nick Timiraos IMMIGRATION FILES — “What Is Humanitarian Parole? How an Obscure Biden Immigration Policy Became So Controversial,” by WSJ’s Michelle Hackman
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump said he “never thought” Tim Scott would get married. Eric Adams ran game at a town hall. Mark Kelly broke his four-year Covid-free streak. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Veteran journalist and Voice of America Chief National Correspondent Steven Herman will release “Behind the White House Curtain” ($29.95) on June 4. The book gives readers a behind the scenes look at the inner workings of the White House press corps, exploring the historic and current relationship between the president and the press. The cover — The RNC has added former U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft and Joseph Craft to the RNC’s finance leadership team and to serve as co-chairs of the Presidential Trust. OUT AND ABOUT — Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) hosted a screening of “No Accident,” a documentary covering the civil case against extremists who incited the deadly 2017 Charlottesville riot, at the Capitol Visitors Center Auditorium last night. The screening was followed by a panel discussion on the rise of violent extremism moderated by the New York Times’ Katie Benner. SPOTTED: Andrea Mitchell, Robyn and Becca Bash, Penny Lee, Stephanie Cutter, Dan Webber, Rachel Caggiano, Elizabeth Falcone, Terri McCullough, Shawn Reddick, Samantha Vinograd, Karen Dunn, Mary McCord, Penny and Sam Evins. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Allie Peck is now a press assistant at the Department of Energy. She previously was a Senior legislative affairs adviser at the White House. … Adam Hodge is now managing director at Bully Pulpit international. He most recently was a spokesperson at the National Security Council and assistant USTR for public affairs. STAFFING UP — Jeohn Salone Favors is now assistant secretary for counterterrorism, threat prevention, and law enforcement policy at DHS. He served most recently was senior counsel at the DOJ’s National Security Division and is a CIA, State and Obama National Security Council alum. TRANSITIONS — Tamara Wittes will be the president of the National Democratic Institute. She previously has been director of foreign assistance at State. … Tim Lim is now senior adviser for public affairs at Optimal. He most recently ran Lim Consulting Services, and is a Bully Pulpit Interactive and Newco Strategies alum. … Christopher Burk is now the director of external affairs at the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board. He most recently was a senior adviser at the Embassy of Finland. … Amanda Major is now director of government affairs at Eisai. She previously was director of government affairs and policy at Coherus BioSciences. ENGAGED — Thomas Vaseliou, an associate at Consovoy McCarthy, proposed to Molly Block, comms director for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and a Trump administration alum, on Friday at his apartment. The couple were set up on a blind date by mutual friends in December 2022. Pic — Breely Peterson, an account executive at Story Amplify and a Mike Turner alum and Jonathan Brown, a U.S. Marine, got engaged on Saturday in Wilmington, North Carolina. The couple met at Lola’s Bar on 8th St. in Capitol Hill when he was stationed at Quantico and she was working at the Capitol. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: POLITICO (17) … Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) … Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) (6-0) … Norah O’Donnell (5-0) … POLITICO’s Alex Ward, Annie Snider, Joe Anuta and Jordan Bowen … Scott Mahaskey … HHS’ Loyce Pace … Vox’s Patrick Reis … Brian Cooke of the Institute of International Education … Bryn Woollacott of Rep. Ken Calvert’s (R-Calif.) office … Isabella Ulloa … Mike Gallagher of Intrepidity … Erika Gudmundson of Good Comms … Matt Simeon … Missy Foxman of the Entertainment Software Association … CNN’s Aaron Pellish … Erik Olson … Laura Keiter of Media Matters for America … Annie Shuppy … Edelman Global Advisory’s Daniel Workman … Tom Daffron … Harvard Institute of Politics’ Amy Howell … Scott Pace … Jay Riestenberg … Antonio Villaraigosa … former Reps. Joe Baca (D-Calif.) and Marty Russo (D-Ill.) (8-0) … Suzanne Kennedy … International Collaboration on Cosmetics Safety’s Ryan Heisler … Matthew Hoppler … Maru Vázquez of Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office … Aaron Bonnaure and Diego Píña Sterling of Rep. Guy Reschenthaler’s (R-Penn.) office … Heidi Zhou-Castro Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would create new government mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The bill would benefit corporate mega-stores, like Walmart and Target, at the expense of Main Street and the 140 million Americans who rely on credit unions and community banks. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that 10,000+ credit unions and community banks in America are opposed to the bill. They also see through the so-called “carve out” for smaller banks which is a hoax to try and buy their support. Their message to Congress is simple: on behalf of credit unions and community banks in all 50 states, commit to actively opposing the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. Click here to learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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