| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
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Last night, Maine issued a ruling that disqualifies Donald Trump from holding the office of the presidency and bars him from the Maine ballot in 2024. | Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | MAINE JOINS COLORADO — Last night, Maine Secretary of State SHENNA BELLOWS issued a 34-page opinion ruling that the Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment disqualifies DONALD TRUMP from holding the office of the presidency and that he is therefore not allowed to appear on the Maine ballot in 2024. From Bellows’ opinion: “I conclude… that the record establishes that Mr. Trump, over the course of several months and culminating on January 6, 2021, used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power. I likewise conclude that Mr. Trump was aware of the likelihood for violence and at least initially supported its use given he both encouraged it with incendiary rhetoric and took no timely action to stop it. “Mr. Trump’s occasional requests that rioters be peaceful and support law enforcement do not immunize his actions. A brief call to obey the law does not erase conduct over the course of months, culminating in his speech on the Ellipse. The weight of the evidence makes clear that Mr. Trump was aware of the tinder laid by his multi-month effort to delegitimize a democratic election, and then chose to light a match.” Maine is the second state to use the Fourteenth Amendment to disqualify Trump, and Bellows is the first state official to make such a ruling. (In Colorado, the state Supreme Court decided the matter.) Other states where challenges have been made, including Minnesota, Michigan and — hours after the Maine ruling — California, have determined that Trump is eligible. The U.S. Supreme Court will likely have to settle the issue. Bellows, a Democrat elected secretary of state by the Maine legislature in 2020, was a presidential elector in 2020, and in her opinion, she made a point of noting the gravity of her decision: “I do not reach this conclusion lightly. Democracy is sacred… I am mindful that no Secretary of State has ever deprived a presidential candidate of ballot access based on Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment. I am also mindful, however, that no presidential candidate has ever before engaged in insurrection. The oath I swore to uphold the Constitution comes first above all…” The Trump campaign said it would appeal the ruling. More: Portland Press Herald: “Maine secretary of state bars Donald Trump from state’s presidential primary ballot” … POLITICO: “US Supreme Court officially asked to take up Trump’s 14th Amendment issue” … Lawfare: “Tracking Section 3 Trump Disqualification Challenges”
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Illustrations by Christa Jarrold for POLITICO | WHAT EVERYONE GOT WRONG IN 2023 — "It’s tough to make predictions,” the old saying goes, “especially about the future." In fact, even the past can be a muddle. Versions of that quote have been attributed to YOGI BERRA, Danish physicist NIELS BOHR, Danish artist ROBERT STORM PETERSEN, Danish poet PIET KEIN, MARK TWAIN and SAMUEL GOLDWYN. But one end-of-the-year ritual we have come to count on is Zack Stanton’s list of the year’s worst predictions, which just dropped this morning. Stanton is Playbook’s saintly deputy editor and the Swiss Army Knife of POLITICO. He edits the three of us, contributes reams of enlightening content to the Playbook oeuvre, conducts learned Q and As, writes brilliant long-form — emphasis on long — pieces for POLITICO Magazine and crafts some of the best short-form headlines in Playbook. (Being from Michigan, he is also exceedingly modest and will undoubtedly try to remove this graf from the newsletter. Not so fast, Stanton, but you may turn it into bullet points, if you want.) Stanton has been assembling the top bad predictions annually since 2017. Though it is no honor to make the list, Stanton does take some of the sting out of the shame by wisely noting in this year’s introduction that to err is human. (He leaves forgiveness up to the reader.)
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Join us for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s annual State of American Business event January 11 to discover how innovation enables businesses to serve customers, solve problems and strengthen society. During our biggest event of the year, you will hear from U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark and other leading CEOs highlighting how America’s free enterprise system is crucial for the long-term success of our country. | | | You can read the full version of “The Absolute Worst Political Predictions of 2023,” here. What follows are some of our favorites: — Former Russian President DMITRY MEDVEDEV: “Civil war will break out in the U.S.” and after the conflict, “ELON MUSK [will] win the presidential election.” (This didn’t happen.) — LARRY KUDLOW: “It looks like Trump will not be indicted” in Manhattan. (The news of Trump’s indictment in Manhattan broke an hour later.) — A whole lot of people: “There will be a recession in 2023.” (We were all wrong, thankfully.) — KEVIN McCARTHY said he was “a thousand percent” confident he would be speaker for a full two-year term. (He was ousted after less than 10 months.) — MICK MULVANEY: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ presidential campaign launch on Twitter Spaces is “genius.” (It wasn’t.) — ROSS DOUTHAT: NIKKI HALEY’s presidential candidacy will be less viable than MIKE PENCE’s. (He’s gone, she’s still in the hunt.) — ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI: “I think [Trump] ends up eventually dropping out of the race.” (Trump is still running.) — BEN SHAPIRO: Business for “Barbie” is “just absolutely going to fall off a cliff” after its first week in theaters. (“Barbie” was the highest-grossing film of 2023.) — TOMI LAHREN: “[O]nce DeSantis announces, the Dems will throw Biden out and pick GAVIN NEWSOM.” (Even with the “genius” announcement on Spaces, this did not happen.) — MICHAEL MOORE: “We will not have to wait till 2024 for the Democrats to regain control of the United States House of Representatives.” (Republicans still control Congress.) — MICHAEL McKENNA: “[VLADIMIR] PUTIN will leave office, dead or alive, volitionally or otherwise, before the end of the year.” (He’s still president and planning his next term.) — JOE CONCHA: “I would think probably within the next couple of months, we’ll see a pivot to JOHN KIRBY as the White House press secretary.” (KARINE JEAN-PIERRE is still White House press secretary.) — JOE BIDEN: Housing and rental prices are going to come down. (It hasn’t happened yet and housing costs are driving overall inflation.)
|  POLITICO illustration by Emily Scherer/Photos by AP, Getty Images, iStock | NEW HEIDI INVESTIGATION — Heidi Przybyla reports this morning on the right’s next legal crusade. “Groups aligned with the conservative legal movement and its financial architect, LEONARD LEO,” she writes, “are working to promote a publicly funded Christian school in Oklahoma, hoping to create a test case to change the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the First Amendment’s separation of church and state.” “At issue is the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Oklahoma’s push to create the St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School, which would be the nation’s first religious school entirely funded by taxpayers. The school received preliminary approval from the state’s charter school board in June. If it survives legal challenges, it would open the door for state legislatures across the country to direct taxpayer funding to the creation of Christian or other sectarian schools. “BRETT FARLEY, executive director of the Catholic Conference of Oklahoma, acknowledges that public funding of St. Isidore is at odds with over 150 years of Supreme Court decisions. He said the justices have misunderstood THOMAS JEFFERSON’s intent when he said there should be a wall separating church and state, but that the current conservative-dominated court seems prepared to change course. “‘Jefferson didn’t mean that the government shouldn’t be giving public benefits to religious communities toward a common goal,’ he said. ‘The court rightly over the last decade or so has been saying, “No, look, we’ve got this wrong and we’re gonna right the ship here.”’” A must-read piece. Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden has nothing on his public schedule.
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Nikki Haley's rivals in the GOP presidential field were quick to respond to her blunder on the campaign trail this week. | Robert F. Bukaty/AP | 1. CLEANUP ON AISLE HALEY: Nikki Haley was in damage-control mode yesterday after her comments on Wednesday when she was asked about the cause of the Civil War and gave an answer that failed to mention slavery. On Thursday, Haley said that “of course the Civil War was about slavery,” before floating without evidence that the man who originally asked the question was “definitely a Democrat plant,” per the USA Today’s Savannah Kuchar. Her rivals in the GOP presidential field were quick to fan the firestorm … Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS at a campaign stop in Iowa: “The minute that she faces any kind of scrutiny, she tends to cave,” DeSantis said, per the Des Moines Register’s Katie Akin. “I think that that’s what you saw yesterday. Not that difficult to identify and acknowledge the role slavery played in the Civil War, and yet that seemed to be something that was really difficult.” CHRIS CHRISTIE at a town hall in New Hampshire: “She’s smart and she knows better. And she didn’t say it because she’s a racist — because she’s not. I know her well and I don't believe Nikki has a racist bone in her body. … The reason she did it is just as bad, if not worse, and should make everybody concerned about her candidacy: She did it because she’s unwilling to offend anyone by telling the truth.” Watch the video Related reads: “When Haley Dodged the Slavery Question, She Put Her Coalition at Risk,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Jazmine Ulloa … “Civil War Gaffe Undercuts Nikki Haley’s 2024 Pitch,” by WSJ’s John McCormick and Shannon Najmabadi 2. FUND DIP: As the RNC prepares for its nominating convention next year in Milwaukee, it is turning to donors (both Republican and Democratic) for fundraising, making the case that the affair will be about more than just Trump, our colleague Shia Kapos reports. REINCE PRIEBUS, chair of the Milwaukee 2024 Host Committee, told Shia in an exclusive interview that the pitch requires some finesse: Priebus said the host committee tells donors that “the convention is about economic development and not who the nominee will be. As a nonprofit, you have to separate the two.” “It’s a message that seems to be working,” Shia writes. “Priebus said the nonprofit run by the host committee is on track to raise the $70 million for the convention that will take place July 15-18, 2024. It is ahead of its quarterly goals, but Priebus declined to get more specific about how far along the fundraising is or who’s writing checks.” 3. GEORGIA ON MY MIND: A federal judge yesterday “upheld Georgia’s new political districts that preserve Republican power,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Niesse writes. The judge ruled that “state legislators ‘fully complied’ with his order to create more districts with a majority of Black voters. The decision leaves in place political maps safeguarding the Republican Party’s 9-5 advantage in Georgia’s U.S. House delegation and its majorities in the General Assembly. These district lines will likely be used in next year’s elections.” In response: Rep. LUCY McBATH (D-Ga.) said yesterday that she will run in the Peach State’s newly constructed 6th Congressional District, which will mark the third-straight election cycle in which McBath has changed districts, the AJC’s Tia Mitchell writes. “Following the ruling, McBath said in a statement that her work in Congress was not finished, particularly on the issue of gun control in honor of her murdered son, JORDAN. She accused Republican leaders of attempting to gerrymander her out of office.” 4. TRADE-IN POLICY: The Biden administration yesterday “extended for two years a temporary measure to suspend Trump-era tariffs on European steel and aluminum, the latest sign that the president is finding it difficult to resolve trade frictions as an election year approaches,” WSJ’s Yuka Hayashi writes. “The breakdowns of the recent talks show how domestic politics are increasingly interfering with Washington’s international relations …. The trend is expected to deepen in the coming months, bringing a paralysis to trade negotiations.”
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:   | | | 5. WAR IN UKRAINE: Russian forces unleashed a massive barrage of missiles early today, “striking multiple residential buildings, a shopping center and other civilian infrastructure in the biggest barrage so far in a previously quiet winter,” WaPo’s Isabelle Khurshudyan and Anastacia Galouchka report from Kyiv. “The scale of the attack confirmed what many in Ukraine have feared for months — that Russia was conserving its missile stocks throughout the fall for massive strikes in the winter. Officials in Kyiv have also warned that stalled U.S. security assistance, which includes ammunition for U.S.-made air-defense systems, could embolden the Russians and place Ukrainian cities in peril.” 6. LATEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST: “Tens of thousands of Palestinians streamed into an already crowded town at the southernmost end of Gaza in recent days, according to the United Nations, fleeing Israel’s bombardment of the center of the strip, where hospital officials said dozens were killed Friday,” AP’s Najib Jobain and Samy Magdy report from the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Biden over the phone had a “difficult conversation last weekend with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel's decision to withhold part of the tax revenue it collects for the Palestinian Authority,” Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. “A U.S. official said this part of last Saturday's call between the two leaders was one of the most difficult and "frustrating" conversations Biden has had with Netanyahu since the beginning of the war in Gaza.” Harrowing read: “‘Screams Without Words’: How Hamas Weaponized Sexual Violence on Oct. 7,” by NYT’s Jeffrey Gettleman, Anat Schwartz and Adam Sella 7. MEGATREND: “After Rise in Murders During the Pandemic, a Sharp Decline in 2023,” by NYT’s Tim Arango and Campbell Robertson: “As 2023 comes to a close, the country is likely to see one of the largest — if not the largest — yearly declines in homicides, according to recent F.B.I. data and statistics collected by independent criminologists and researchers. The rapid decline in homicides isn’t the only story. Among nine violent and property crime categories tracked by the F.B.I., the only figure that is up over the first three quarters of this year is motor vehicle theft.” 8. THE BRAVE NEWS WORLD: “Inside the News Industry’s Uneasy Negotiations With OpenAI,” by NYT’s Benjamin Mullin: “For months, some of the biggest players in the U.S. media industry have been in confidential talks with OpenAI on a tricky issue: the price and terms of licensing their content to the artificial intelligence company. The curtain on those negotiations was pulled back this week when The New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement, alleging that the companies used its content without permission to build artificial intelligence products.” SUNDAY SO FAR … ABC “This Week”: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). Trump White House Panel: Alyssa Farah Griffin, Cassidy Hutchinson and Sarah Matthews. Panel: Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur, Rachael Bade and Rick Klein. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Denver Mayor Mike Johnston … Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. CNN “State of the Union”: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu … Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). Panel: Scott Jennings, Kate Bedingfield, Kristin Soltis Anderson and Faiz Shakir. CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Panel: Eva McKend, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Catherine Lucey and Josh Dawsey. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) … Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). Panel: Mollie Hemingway, Jeff Mason, Julia Manchester and Juan Williams. NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) … Utah Gov. Spencer Cox … Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. Panel: Victoria Garrick Browne, former Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy (D-R.I.) and Shairi Turner.
| | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Rick Scott said his home was “swatted” while he was out to dinner. Elon Musk and Giorgia Meloni have become fast friends. ENGAGED — Tristan Walters, text director at the NRSC, and Elizabeth Lloyd, legislative director for Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), got engaged Wednesday in Palm Springs. The couple met when they were both students at Villanova. Pic — Natalia Larrea, director of Euroconsult US, and Chris Beauregard, a branch chief at the U.S. Space Force and a White House National Space Council alum, got engaged Wednesday at El Palacio de Cristal in Natalia’s hometown of Madrid in front of her family. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT’s Katie Rogers and Katie Glueck … Del. Aumua Amata Radewagen (R-American Samoa) … Reihan Salam of the Manhattan Institute … Jeremy Waldstreicher … POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein, Grace Goodman, Amy McClurg and Rachel Bluth … Washington Examiner’s Grant Addison … Laura Friedel of Tarplin, Downs & Young … Purple Strategies’ Jordan Langdon and Katie Pudwill Wells … Tom Jarriel … Blair Lyman Watters of InterDigital … Rally’s Leo Wallach … Kevin Griffis … Ashleigh Banfield … NBC News PR’s Claudia Meyer-Samargia … Boris Medzhibovsky … Mike Woicekowski … Sophie Horvath … IOC President Thomas Bach (7-0) … Edelman’s Alexander Romano … Maria Randazzo of First Mode … Laura Clawson … Michael DeSantis Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Join us for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s annual State of American Business event January 11 to discover how innovation enables businesses to serve customers, solve problems and strengthen society. Our biggest event of the year draws a virtual audience of more than 10,000 people from across the nation and around the world, from small business owners to Fortune 500 CEOs, community leaders, and policymakers. You will hear from U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark and other leading CEOs highlighting how America’s free enterprise system is crucial for the long-term success of our country. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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