Thursday, December 28, 2023

Smart Money...

Smart Money...

Corona Del Mar, CA

 

Howdy Chris!

 

I recently watched the movie "Dumb Money" so you don't have to.

 

It's about the Meme stock craze...specifically Gamestop.

 

It don't think it checked enough of the "woke" boxes.

 

It's also very boring.

 

One thing it did was take me back to 2021 when some friends and guys at the gym were talking about "sticking it to the man."

 

I told them about the Clearinghouse, and how they wouldn't be able to corner the market much longer before intervention.

 

That's exactly what happened.

 

I was just stoked because people finally realized Robinhood is effectively a division of Citadel.

 

In other words, they are there to skim from everyday traders using payment for order flow (PFOF). It's a hidden tax on the naive.

 

One thing the movie did get right is to show how emotional everyday traders are. That's why they're referred to as "dumb money."

 

If a person's argument for getting into a stock was emotional, you're not going to get him to sell based on logic.

 

Nothing demonstrates this better than the "non-reportables" in the E-mini S&P 500.

 

These are folks that trade less than 1,000 contracts.

 

In aggregate, you can take the opposite side of their trades and make a nice return.

 

Currently, these traders are a bit extended on the long side, and the Smart Money strategy went into long-term bonds a few weeks ago.

 

Believe it or not, bonds have out-performed the S&P 500 since then (+9%).

 

TLT was up an additional 1.77% on Wednesday.

 

The good 'ol Smart Money strategy is now up 30% for the year.

I've been publishing these signals since 2006 -- for free I might add.

 

Since I'm considering starting a hedge fund in 2024, I suspect I'm going to be low on time writing a free newsletter.

 

The 80/20 of the 80/20 rule says that 64% of output is from 4% of the people.

 

So I'm going to spend more time on that 4% in 2024.

 

I wish you well on your financial journey... wherever that takes you.

 

It has been a pleasure.

Trade smart,

 

Dan "Prince of Proof" Murphy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Portfolio Boss, Inc.

260 Newport Center Dr, Suite 100 Newport Beach, CA 92660

 

Don't want to stay in the loop with Dan? We'll be sad to see you go, but you can unsub to no longer receive emails.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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