Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Inside Zelenskyy’s last-ditch pitch

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DRIVING THE DAY

JUST POSTED — “Poll: A fifth of Black voters want ‘someone else’ instead of Trump or Biden,” by Brakkton Booker: “In the GenForward survey released on Tuesday and shared first with POLITICO, nearly 1 in 5 Black Americans, 17 percent, said they would vote for former President DONALD TRUMP. And 20 percent of Black respondents said they would vote for 'someone else' other than [President JOE] BIDEN or Trump.”

LATEST IN TEXAS — The Texas Supreme Court last night “overturned a court order that would have allowed a Dallas woman to get an abortion,” The Texas Tribune’s Eleanor Klibanoff reports, with the ruling coming just hours after the 31-year-old woman, KATE COX, said she would travel out of the state to seek an abortion for her non-viable pregnancy.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy poses for a photo.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in Washington D.C. this week to ask for more aid in the fight against Russia. | Juan Medina/Getty Images

Z’S MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? — We’ve come a long way from VOLODMYR ZELENSKYY, rock star. Nearly a year ago, the Ukrainian president made his first Washington visit since Russia invaded his country, soaking up waves of applause and pledges for cooperation as hopes ran high for a successful spring offensive and a resounding defeat for VLADIMIR PUTIN’s forces.

Today, Biden and congressional leaders will meet a different, desperate Zelenskyy.

The war has devolved into a stalemate. Congress is balking at Biden’s request for $61 billion in new funding. And the West’s unity against Russia appears to be fraying, with Ukraine skeptics prevailing recently in elections abroad.

It’s fair to ask what Zelenskyy can reasonably hope to accomplish. In a few hours, he’ll speak to senators, followed by a meeting with House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, before heading to the White House for a bilat and news conference with Biden.

His message will be simple: We need your help, and do what you need to do — fast — to get it to us. The question is whether those who must be convinced will hear that message at all. Some skeptical senators are suggesting they’ll skip this morning’s meeting, and it appears the vast majority of House members will have no opportunity to hear directly from him.

The fact is, the crucial negotiation that could unlock an agreement is out of his hands entirely, and it’s moving at a snail’s pace. The House is set to leave town Thursday, and Johnson insisted at a WSJ event last night that any Ukraine funding will have to be paired with far-reaching border policy changes.

Meanwhile, Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), who is leading the border talks for the GOP, told our Hill colleagues “there’s no time” to cut a deal and deliver Ukraine aid this month. “Otherwise,” he said, “it slips into January.”

Zelenskyy, we’re told, is not walking into the situation blindly.

“He has, over the last two years, gotten quite a good sense of American politics,” a person familiar with the president’s thinking, said late last night, speaking anonymously in order to preview the visiting president’s thinking. “And he's asked for very intensive briefings on what is happening now.”

Zelenskyy knows enough, the person added, not to take any particular position on U.S. border policy. What he can do is remind lawmakers that Ukraine is possibly the last thing standing between a direct clash between NATO and Russia — a message he previewed yesterday at the National Defense University.

“Let me be frank with you friends,” he said, “if there’s anyone inspired by unresolved issues on Capitol Hill it is just Putin and his sick clique.”

The adviser added: “He does have empathy towards Republicans because he understands that many Republicans who support Ukraine aid are in a difficult position politically due to populist sentiments in their home districts. But he firmly believes that by helping Ukraine fight back against Russian aggression, the U.S. is saving lots of American lives and treasure in the long run.”

The Biden administration, meanwhile, continues to project cautious optimism about the potential for a deal, even amid the dour indications from Capitol Hill. One administration official insisted that the stalled border talks would not overshadow Zelenskyy’s pleas.

“It just highlights what's at stake,” the official said. “We need Congress to act by the end of December to prevent any interruption to funding from Ukraine.”

— Related read: “Zelenskyy in Lilliput: Someone Shrunk Ukraine’s War Coalition,” by Matthew Kaminski: “Biden, the Republicans and Europe suddenly look small, while Putin and XI [JINPING] stand tall.”

 

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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NEW SOSNIK MEMO — We’re less than three weeks away from 2024, and we have one final look ahead from our old pal DOUG SOSNIK. His 15-page year-end memo has plenty of classic Sosnik insights into the polarized American electorate, where people’s votes are determined by “how educated they are and how much economic opportunity they feel they have.”

But he also has some astute observations about the coming presidential race, starting with its underappreciated length. With Biden and Trump both on a glide path to the general election, he notes, “both nominations could be determined by late February or early March, which would make for the longest general election campaign in modern history.”

That matchup isn’t assured, of course. There’s a very narrow path for a Trump alternative to emerge before Super Tuesday, Sosnik notes, and he points out there’s a historical precedent for an unpopular sitting president bowing out late: LYNDON BAINES JOHNSON in 1968.

The LBJ comparison has its limits, he notes, but they aren’t necessarily flattering: “Biden’s problems are not ideological and are largely due to his age (he is 20 years older than Johnson at this point in his presidency) and the overwhelming belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction.”

On the positive side of the ledger: Sosnik notes that Biden could reap political dividends if he can keep the economy chugging for another few months: “The first and second quarters of the fourth year in office are the most important in demonstrating to the public that the country is headed in the right direction.”

As for the issues that will define the race, Sosnik lays out four — two advantageous for Democrats, two advantageous for Republicans — that will matter most in swing states: (1) abortion, (2) threats to democracy, (3) immigration and (4) crime.

Here’s the interesting part: “Where the other party has the advantage, neither the Democrats or the Republicans has demonstrated that it recognizes the political risks, much less come up with a viable plan to mitigate its vulnerabilities.”

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WAKE UP, READ PLAYBOOK — We have an exciting update for Playbook readers: Starting Dec. 18, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Friday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis every weekday as we enter a newsy election year. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 18th if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — RISA HELLER has been advising Harvard University on crisis communications related to anti-Semitism in recent weeks and played a role in prepping Harvard President CLAUDINE GAY for the disastrous congressional hearing last week, three people familiar with the matter told Daniel Lippman.

Heller was hired by the university to work on crisis comms as institutional tensions rose in the weeks following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Heller played a minor role in Gay’s hearing prep, according to two of the sources, and has since advised Harvard on how to deal with the fallout from the hearing. She declined to comment.

Heller is a CHUCK SCHUMER alum and veteran crisis comms pro who has represented such boldface names as fired CNN head JEFF ZUCKER, hedge-fund maven RAY DALIO and Activision Blizzard CEO BOBBY KOTICK. She was part of a high-powered team including PR giant Edelman and the WilmerHale law firm that failed to stave off a national uproar after Gay testified that it “depends on the context” whether calls for Jewish genocide violate Harvard’s code of conduct. Gay later apologized.

THIS JUST IN — “President Claudine Gay Will Remain in Office, Harvard Corporation to Issue Statement in Support,” by the Harvard Crimson’s Miles J. Herszenhorn and Claire Yuan

FRONTIERS OF THE CULTURE WARS — Rep. ELISE STEFANIK’s (R-N.Y.) intense questioning of Gay and two other university presidents last week has “opened a new front in the culture wars — all while scrambling the Democratic Party’s traditional coalition of well-educated voters and their institutions of higher education,” our colleague Adam Wren writes. While many Republicans have naturally rallied around Stefanik, “it is the movement against the university presidents from a chorus of Democrats that suggests a possible realignment of a traditional political alliance, one that could see bipartisan pushback against the elitism of the ivory tower.”

Related reads: “Biden stays clear of calling for Ivy League presidents’ resignations,” by Adam Cancryn … “Inside the Chaotic Struggle for Power at Penn,” by NYT’s Stephanie Saul, Alan Blinder, Maureen Farrell and Anemona Hartocollis … “Harvard Facing Pressure to Remove—and to Keep—President,” by WSJ’s Douglas Belkin and Matt Barnum

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10:30 a.m. to resume consideration of HARRY COKER JR.’s nomination to be national cyber director. In the afternoon, the Senate will vote on the motion to invoke cloture on the conference report to accompany the NDAA.

The House will meet at 10 a.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. The House Freedom Caucus has a new chairman: Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.), running unopposed, was elected yesterday to succeed Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.). Don’t expect much of a change in the group’s confrontational tactics under Good’s watch: He was a leader of the push to remove KEVIN McCARTHY as speaker and was among the eight Republicans who voted with Democrats to make good on the threat.
  2. Plans to have the House vote on competing proposals to overhaul the controversial surveillance program known as Section 702 collapsed yesterday in the face of conservative opposition to the procedural gambit. The upshot is that a temporary extension included in the National Defense Authorization Act, which is expected to pass later this week, will maintain the status quo — and extend the reauthorization debate – into April.
  3. Two hearings today worth your attention: The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee will dive deep on the recent and controversial decision to relocate FBI headquarters to Maryland, putting current and former General Services Administration officials under oath. Senate Homeland Security’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, meanwhile, will hear whistlebowers’ stories of sexual assault and harassment at the Coast Guard Academy.

At the White House

Biden will attend a campaign reception in D.C. in the morning. In the afternoon, the president will meet with Zelenskyy, with whom he will hold a news conference afterward.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will attend a campaign reception in D.C. in the morning. In the evening, Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a holiday reception.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

President Donald Trump looks at his phone.

President Donald Trump looks at his phone at White House on June 18, 2020. | Alex Brandon/AP

PHONE-Y BUSINESS — DONALD TRUMP’s cellphone usage could be causing the former president some heartburn in two of the legal cases that loom over his reelection run.

In the federal case looking at Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, special counsel JACK SMITH’s team said in a new filing that it has recovered data from the cellphone that Trump used while in office and “plans to present evidence of his findings to a Washington, D.C. jury to demonstrate how Trump used the phone in the weeks during which he attempted to subvert the 2020 election,” Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein write. “The data from Trump’s phone could reveal day-to-day details of his final weeks in office, including his daily movements, his Twitter habits and any other aides who had access to his accounts and devices.”

Meanwhile, in the classified documents case, CNN’s Katelyn Polantz reports that a former Mar-a-Lago employee who witnessed multiple incidents relating to Trump’s handling of classified documents was contacted by the former president just days after the longtime worker quit their job: “Interactions included offers of legal representation by attorneys paid for by Trump and complimentary tickets to a golf tournament, as well as repeated reminders he could come back to work for Trump.”

More top reads: 

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BIDEN CONDEMNS ANTISEMITISM — Biden at a White House Hanukkah reception yesterday evening said that the recent “surge of antisemitism” around the world is “sickening,” AP’s Will Weissert writes. “The president told the crowd, ‘You don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist.’ He said that while he doesn’t always agree with Israel’s leaders and governmental policies, ‘Were there no Israel, there would not be a Jew in the world who is safe.’ ‘We continue to provide military assistance until they get rid of Hamas but we have to be careful,’ Biden said of U.S. support for the war. He added: ‘The whole world, public opinion can shift overnight. We can’t let that happen.’”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Putin Critic Alexei Navalny Missing From Prison,” by WSJ’s Georgi Kantchev: “Navalny, a fierce critic of President Vladimir Putin, hasn’t been heard from for nearly a week, his team said on X. In recent weeks he had become ill and was put on an IV by prison staff.”

2024 WATCH

Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel speaks at the committee's winter meeting.

Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel speaks at the committee's winter meeting in Dana Point, Calif., Jan. 27, 2023. | Jae C. Hong/AP

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM — Preparations are well underway for the 2024 conventions, and Republicans are sparing no expense to put their commitment to the crucial swing-state of Wisconsin on display, our colleague Shia Kapos reports from Milwaukee. That means some of the nearly 5,000 delegates and alternates, plus another 45,000 guests, could be staying as much as 80 miles out of town.

“Convention organizers say all the state delegations will stay at hotels within Wisconsin’s borders — and they’re nudging them to fly in and out of the Milwaukee airport,” she writes, noting that the effort is no small logistical feat considering the city’s size in relation to nearby Chicago. But the commitment is all all for the sake of making sure the delegates don’t have to set foot in the blue state of Illinois on their way to the GOP crowning ceremony.”

More top reads:

 

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MORE POLITICS

Shamaine Daniels smiling while speaking into a microphone.

Shamaine Daniels speaks at a campaign rally during her race last election cycle in York, Pa., on Oct. 30, 2022. | Wyatt Rhodes

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — SHAMAINE DANIELS is taking robocalls to a whole new level in her run to unseat GOP Rep. SCOTT PERRY in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District. Her campaign this weekend launched what is thought to be the first interactive AI-powered political phone campaign, our colleagues Rebecca Kern, Mohar Chatterjee and Madison Fernandez report.

What the call sounds like: “Hello. My name is Ashley, and I’m an artificial intelligence volunteer for Shamaine Daniels’ run for Congress,” a robotic voice says in greeting the recipient.

“Although the use of AI has raised concerns among security experts and ethicists, it is subject to relatively few rules, with Congress facing an uphill battle to pass any laws regulating AI before the 2024 elections. The Federal Election Commission has collected public comments on a petition to regulate deceptive AI content in campaign ads but hasn’t announced any actions yet.”

More top reads: 

  • Emerge America, which has pledged to train more Democratic women to run for office, goes under the microscope of The 19th’s Mel Leonor Barclay and Grace Panetta, who find that the progressive group is gutting much of its operation as it faces difficulties  keeping its mission alive.
  • Burbank, California, Mayor KONSTANTINE ANTHONY told WaPo that he’s flipping his previous endorsement of Rep. ADAM SCHIFF in the Democratic Senate primary to Rep. BARBARA LEE, citing Schiff’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
  • The Ohio Senate GOP primary appears to be taking shape: “A second poll in as many weeks showed business executive BERNIE MORENO narrowly leading a three-way contest for the right to take on Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN,” our colleague Ally Mutnick reports. Read the poll 

POLICY CORNER

REMEMBER THE ‘CARE ECONOMY’?  — The Biden administration this morning is announcing $37 billion in home and community based care funding under the American Rescue Plan that will benefit some seven million seniors and disabled Americans.

Harris told reporters in a call yesterday that the new money would fund billions of dollars in worker training, higher wages for caregivers, temporary help for those caring for a family member and new state registries of qualified caregivers.

“Thankfully, when I was helping to care for my mother as she was battling cancer, I did not have some of the constraints that other family caregivers have,” Harris said on the call. “But I can tell you that I so admire and respect what they do, and it truly is a labor of love.”

The announcement comes after additional “care economy” investments were left out of the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s follow-up domestic policy bill. The new funding will be formally announced at a White House event later today with HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA, Sen. BOB CASEY (R-Pa.) and Democratic Govs. JOSH SHAPIRO (Pa.), JANET MILLS (Maine) and JARED POLIS (Colo.).

THE WRATH OF KHAN — “Lina Khan’s Rough Year,” by Ankush Khardori in NY Mag: “When a liberal star took over the FTC, she was expected to break up big business. Instead, critics say, she’s broken the agency.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

FIGHT OF THE HUNTER — HUNTER BIDEN’s defense team argued in a new court filing yesterday that the gun charges against the president’s son should be thrown out “citing a deal his team negotiated with the Justice Department this summer,” Betsy Woodruff Swan writes. While DOJ says the deal wasn’t final, “Hunter Biden’s lawyers argue it is in place and that it shields him from both his criminal gun charges in Delaware and a new set of criminal tax charges that prosecutors brought against him in California last week.”

BAD SANTOS — Prosecutors said yesterday that former Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) is “in talks to resolve criminal charges against him,” Bloomberg’s Patricia Hurtado reports.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVES — Tara Prindiville is joining NBC News as a White House producer. She previously was a White House producer for Fox News. Julie Cerullo is now a producer for Andrea Mitchell and previously was a producer for MSNBC’s “The Beat with Ari Melber.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Alex Glass and André Crombie are joining Climate Power. Glass will be managing director of comms and previously was senior VP at GMMB. Crombie will be deputy managing director of states and previously oversaw culture, training and management at DOE’s Office of the Under Secretary for Infrastructure. Lydia Paver has also been promoted to managing director of research.

COMMERCE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Adrienne Elrod recently departed the Chips Program Office at the Commerce Department, where she served as external and government affairs director. She is relaunching Elrod Strategies, where she will advise corporate and political clients on strategic comms, public affairs and government relations.

TRANSITIONS — Natalie Fall is now executive director for March For Our Lives. She previously was director of development and partnerships and is a Giffords alum. … Morgyn Greer is now director of finance for state programs at GOPAC. She previously was finance coordinator at the Republican Attorneys General Association. … Sergiy Tsivkach and Michael Žantovský are joining Albright Stonebridge Group as senior advisers. Tsivkach previously was CEO of UkraineInvest. Žantovský is an external adviser on foreign policy to Czech Republic President Petr Pavel. …

… Tanuj Deora, Julie Taylor, Bret Scott and Kate Merson are joining ev.energy. Deora will be senior VP of commercial and previously worked in the White House’s Federal Sustainability Office. Taylor will be VP of global partnerships and previously was head of EVSE for North America at Rexel. Scott will be head of automotive and previously was at Wejo. Merson will be director of grid services and previously was at Enervee.

ENGAGED — Alyssa Anderson, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), and Max Becker, a lobbyist at the Bockorny Group, got engaged on Saturday at Mount Vernon. They met in 2019 while working for Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). PicAnother pic

— Hayden Wachob, an environmental scientist, and Rachel Kline, deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) and a Stephanie Murphy and Bill Nelson alum, got engaged during Chanukah in Eastern Market on Thursday. The couple met at the University of Florida. PicAnother pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Cassidy HutchinsonChristian Martinez of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s office … Lanny Davis Jesse Ferguson Chris Plante … POLITICO’s Taylor Miller Thomas and Yu WuBecky PerlowNora BoustanyPeter FennCharli Huddleston of the National Association of Manufacturers … Bret WincupJeff Burton … Google’s José Castañeda and Nick Pearson Larry Duncan of Monument Advocacy … Fox Business’ Liz Claman … former Reps. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) and Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) … Rebecca Neale HampsonJamie Brown HantmanTodd Bertoson of Capitol Hill Policy Group … Danny Russel (7-0) … Tina-Maria Giordano Henry ... Tanner HishtaDawn LaguensRiley Nelson of the Meridian International Center … AP’s Seth Borenstein Morgan Brummund of the American Conservation Coalition … David Pasch

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