Saturday, July 15, 2023

VC's long road to recovery

Also: The latest fund performance data; PE picks up the exit pace; Enabling value-based healthcare; Recapping our recent secondaries webinar
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The Research Pitch
July 15, 2023
Presented by G-P
New performance data: Our latest Benchmarks have just gone live, with dozens of pages of fund performance metrics through Q4 like IRR quantiles, pooled horizon returns, cash multiples, and PMEs sliced by strategy, vintage year, and geography. Download them all.

Enabling value: A shift to value-based healthcare should bring better medicine and, hopefully, lower costs to patients, but executing that transition well requires a massive upfront investment. Our new research delves into the public and private companies driving the shift. Read the note.
 
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US VC has a calmer Q2, but recovery remains a long way off
Compared to many recent quarters, Q2 was quiet for the venture market. Deal counts leveled off, exits and fundraising remained slow, and no major players collapsed, a la Silicon Valley Bank.

That doesn't mean VC is on a stable road to recovery. The reset remains in full force. Valuations continued their declines at the later stages, with venture growth seeing the deepest cut. LPs continued to slow-play new commitments, and few S-1s were filed for future IPOs. Everything in the market right now seems relatively precarious, as if it were waiting for a recession.

The good news is some of the pressures that have piled onto the markets are letting up — that ebb just hasn't translated into material change in the slowdown.

The venture market shift from growth-at-all-costs to the efficient use and deployment of capital was a major change from the loose financing climate of 2021, and it's likely creating a more sustainable environment.
 
VC-backed companies in the US have doubled since 2016.
 
The next couple of quarters will be telling for VC. Currently, more than 50,000 companies in the US are VC-backed, a figure that doubled from 2016. Not all of those can expect a soft landing. Down rounds are beginning to pick up significantly in the data, highlighting both that companies are resigned to the fact that they might have previously raised at too high of a valuation, but also that investors are sticking to their ideals and not falling back into the fast-paced funding environment we just left.

Restaurant chain Cava's IPO was a bright spot of Q2, but that alone likely won't restart the IPO market. Too many tech companies are waiting for conditions to improve materially before filing an S-1 showing the losses that have often characterized tech listings in recent years. There are now around 800 unicorns in the US, but there have been just two exits in 2023 that have generated a billion-dollar valuation.

VC still has a long way to go.

For more data and analysis, click to download the Q2 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.
Best,

Kyle Stanford, CAIA
Senior Analyst, US Venture Lead
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US PE picks up the pace of exits
Our quarterly US PE Breakdown is one of our most widely read reports, and the Q2 edition should be no exception. Packed with 37 pages of charts and commentary, it spans everything from deployment to exits to fundraising and fund performance. It has become a "must read" for anyone operating in the US PE ecosystem.

Here are the top takeaways from this quarter's report:
  • US PE deal value slipped by 15.8% from Q1 and is down 29.6% for the year; deal count was largely unchanged, pointing to smaller deal sizes.
  • Exits were a bright spot for a change, surging by 66.9% from last quarter, the best level since crashing six quarters ago.
  • There were four big exits to end the quarter: two via M&A (Adenza and Apptio) and two via IPO (Savers Value Village and Kodak Gas Services).
  • Leverage remains scarce. Debt for LBOs plummeted to a 43% share of EV, down from the five-year average of 52%.
  • Take-privates got smaller this year. Volumes are brisk, but more than half of all public-to-private deals have clocked in at under $1 billion.
While it's still a difficult environment for PE dealmakers and fundraisers, there are some green shoots emerging. As of June 30, the S&P 500 was up by 17.6% on a one-year basis, in stark contrast to the 18.1% one-year negative return just six months prior. The negative denominator effect is not as pronounced, and allocators have some breathing room to allocate more to PE or stay the course.
 
PE firms hold ample dry powder.
 
Also encouraging: Big banks have slowly waded back into the leveraged loan market. After taking an eight-month sabbatical from underwriting any new loans for large take-privates, a trickle of announcements started in February and accelerated in March.

Private credit funds continued to lend all along and were the main reason the LBO market and PE deal flow, in general, did not collapse coming out of the steepest rate hikes in more than 40 years. Instead, the industry has maintained pre-pandemic levels of deal activity, which were considered strong before the 2020 to 2021 frenzy set the bar impossibly high.

We suspect the second half of 2023 will provide its own twists and turns, and will render a verdict as to whether higher interest rates are here to stay — or the industry's journey to a friendlier LBO backdrop is finally complete.

Download the Q2 US PE Breakdown for more data and analysis.
Enjoy the read!

Tim Clarke
Lead Analyst, Private Equity
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Thematic Research  

Secondaries and Liquifying Illiquid Investments Webinar Recap

LP-led deals are poised to lead the secondary market in 2023. Fueled by more favorable pricing agreements, LP-led deals could overtake GP-led deal volume by a 60/40 (or perhaps even a 70/30) split.
 

Our analyst note recaps PitchBook's recent webinar on facing the LP-led and GP-led markets this year. We spoke to three experts in the world of private fund secondary transactions — Greenhill, Pantheon and the Washington State Investment Board — and dug into the dynamics shaping the secondary market today:
download the free research
 

Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks

Physical multibillion-dollar infrastructure industries like wireless telecoms, sensor networks and cloud servers have long held the status quo, but decentralized physical infrastructure networks, or DePINs, could upend them with a new business model.
 

These networks, which use token incentives to help offset the huge capital expenditures required to build physical infrastructure, are the focus of our analyst note. DePINs may still have a way to go before they are ready for prime time, but VC deal trends indicate investors are bullish on the new vertical:
download the free preview
 
 
Webinars & Events  

Upcoming this summer:
  • July 26: As ESG and impact investing arrive in full force, many market participants are curious about investor behavior — and what's beyond the sensational headlines. Our analysts will discuss the data from our Sustainable Investment Survey Report. Register here.

  • August 9: The US venture ecosystem remained under stress in Q2, as dealmaking slowed, pressure persisted on fundraising, and the IPO window stayed firmly shut. Our expert panel will dive into key findings from the latest PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. Register here.
 
In the News  

Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Are there any bright spots for crypto venture funds? [Bloomberg Technology]

  • VC activity remains sluggish, but these 2 markets are poised for huge growth. [Fast Company]

  • Decentralized physical infrastructure network development is nascent, but considerable progress has been made. [Crowdfund Insider]

  • Why private equity is chasing plumbers and lumber yards. [Bloomberg]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
ICYMI  

Highlights from our other recent research:

Market updates
Thematic research
Public Comp Sheets and Valuation Guides
Industry & tech research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • Floating Wind and Solar Energy
  • European PE Breakdown
  • European Venture Report
 

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