| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | A HUNTER SCANDAL THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY MATTER TO VOTERS? — NYT’s Maureen Dowd: “It’s Seven Grandkids, Mr. President”
|  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is starting to look like the overhyped predecessors of GOP primaries past. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images | FAILURE TO LAUNCH — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ campaign to topple DONALD TRUMP has stalled. DeSantis is starting to look like the overhyped predecessors of GOP primaries past who entered the race with high expectations and lots of money, only to fall on their faces: PHIL GRAMM in 1996, JON HUNTSMAN in 2012, SCOTT WALKER and JEB BUSH in 2016. THE POLLS: In national polls, DeSantis’ trajectory has been on the kind of track that does not bode well: The more information voters have received about him, the worse he does. Back in January, before the attacks from Trump world started coming, DeSantis peaked at 40.5% in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. After a decline, he had another spike up to 39% in mid-February. Then another valley and a spike to 36.1% a month later. By then, the Trump assault had begun, and DeSantis became the polling equivalent of an aging yo-yo dieter who settles into a natural weight and is no longer able to achieve the same gains. For DeSantis, that number is in the low 20s (polling, not pounds). Even after his official announcement in May — a moment of maximum exposure that should result in a significant bounce in polling — DeSantis was unable to reach close to his January high. The polling in Iowa, where Trump continues to attack DeSantis mercilessly, has been limited, but what we have shows Trump up 24 points. In New Hampshire, where the DeSantis super PAC has stopped running ads, it’s 27 points. In South Carolina, it’s 20. THE MONEY: On the fundraising front, there is more evidence of a campaign losing momentum. DeSantis raised $20 million in Q2 despite only being a candidate for six weeks of the reporting period. That’s a figure well behind Trump’s $35 million, but likely substantially ahead of every other Republican candidate. But dig into that figure: The $20 million includes an impressive $8.2 million on his first day as a candidate. Which means that after Day One, he raised an average of just over $300,000 a day for the next 36 days of the fundraising quarter. We won’t know how quickly things slowed down until official numbers are released in a week, but clearly there was a significant dropoff. THE GOP ELECTEDS: Perhaps even more important than these metrics is the fact that GOP elected officials are not rallying around DeSantis. Since the first 24 hours of his announcement in late May, only one prominent Republican, Oklahoma Gov. KEVIN STITT, has endorsed DeSantis, according to FiveThirtyEight’s endorsement tracker. Trump is swamping DeSantis in GOP endorsements at every level of government. The one endorsement that might really matter — DeSantis’ friend, Iowa Gov. KIM REYNOLDS — is off limits for now as she insists she won’t endorse in the primary. More on that from the NYT this morning THE NARRATIVE: The DeSantis-is-stalled news cycle is now in full effect, with DeSantis super PAC official STEVE CORTES even giving it his stamp of approval this week. “Right now in national polling we are way behind,” Cortes said on Sunday night. “It’s an uphill battle, but clearly Donald Trump is the runaway frontrunner.” Various explanations for the DeSantis whimper are now being floated. — In the WSJ this morning, GOP pollster WHIT AYRES tells Alex Leary and John McCormick that the problem is that the governor “lacks a team that has worked with him before in a close election.” More from the article: “Key strategists who helped with his first bid for governor in 2018 are no longer with him — one of them, SUSIE WILES, is now a top Trump campaign aide — while his 2022 re-election was a 19-point blowout. ‘Politics is a team sport, especially at this level,’ Ayres said. ‘There is no team that has been with him through thick and thin.’” — In The Hill, Florida GOP strategist FORD O’CONNELL sees inexperience as the issue. “[O]thers have suggested that DeSantis peaked following the midterm elections, when Florida Republicans saw sweeping victories there while Trump-endorsed candidates largely performed poorly in other parts of the country. ‘The mistake they made — and again, it’s a mistake most people running for a new office make — they assume people know more about Ron than they actually do,’ O’Connell said.” — In his home state, The Miami Herald says the problem is that DeSantis can’t distinguish himself from Trump: “Some of his [policy] plans match what Trump has already proposed, and others echo what he already did as president. It’s a particular challenge for DeSantis, whose substance-heavy pitch to voters relies more on policy than most Republican candidates. … ‘If you have somebody who’s already painting with the boldest colors there is, you can’t get any more vivid than that,’ said PATRICK T. BROWN, a fellow at the conservative Ethics and Policy Center. ‘So I do think there’s an element of, what can he do to differentiate himself?’”
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | BUT, BUT, BUT: It’s obviously not too late for DeSantis. In its piece this morning, the WSJ offers a preview of how the campaign is responding to the sense of a death spiral: “DeSantis has largely avoided talking with the mainstream media, in line with his frequent confrontations with the press as governor. But his campaign, in a sign of strategy shift, is planning to do interviews around a series of policy proposals he will lay out in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the plans. The campaign is also counting on DeSantis’s biography becoming better known through advertising and his own telling. He has played up a modest upbringing, service in the Navy and family life.” THE SPIN: JASON MILLER, a senior adviser to Trump, put it like this to Playbook this morning: “Ron DeSanctimonious’ problem isn’t with the campaign, it’s with the candidate — voters just don’t like him. His allies have spent tens of millions of dollars and knocked on thousands of doors, but the more voters learn about Ron DeSanctus, the less they like him. He has to be looking for an exit ramp at this point, because he has no shot in this race.” We checked in this morning with KRISTIN DAVISON, the COO of Never Back Down, the well-funded DeSantis super PAC, to get her perspective on the DeSantis-is-dead narrative. She offered the following thoughts: — On fundraising: “The fact that this is a new cycle of ‘DeSantis-is-losing his footing,’ when he just announced raising a collective $150 million is baffling,” she said, noting the combined totals from the campaign and the super PAC. “I believe, when all of the reports are out, that our number might be more than the entire field combined.” — On how DeSantis is the Trump 2016 of 2024: “This is a narrative that’s similar to 2016, when people said that there’s no way that Donald Trump could win. They were missing what’s happening on the ground. … That’s what’s happening now with DeSantis. Everyone’s kind of missing the moment.” She added that DeSantis is investing heavily in an Iowa ground game and already has 5,000 caucus-goers committed to him. (There will likely be roughly 200K-plus Iowans at the GOP caucuses next January.) — On how Trump is the Jeb 2016 of 2024: “If Donald Trump wants to say that he’s the Jeb Bush of 2024, I’m fine with that. Go for it. That’s basically what they’re saying.” — On how DeSantis is also the Obama 2008 of 2024: “Look at [BARACK] OBAMA and [HILLARY] CLINTON. In mid 2007, Clinton was the inevitable nominee, Obama was stagnant. Even in the fall of 2007, everyone said Obama is dead. … What they were missing there is that Obama had an organization on the ground that no one was paying attention, which is exactly what we’re doing with DeSantis.” Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your favorite historical analogy for the GOP primary: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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|  A member of a Ukrainian special police unit fires toward Russian troops at the front lines of the war in Luhansk yesterday. | Libkos/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. RASKIN STAYS PUT: Rep. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) announced yesterday that he will not run for Senate, ending a period of speculation about one of the House’s leading liberal legal minds. In an extensive statement, Raskin, who’s recently battled cancer, said he felt called to remain in the House to fight against Trumpism and for democracy. “If these were normal times, I am pretty sure that [a Senate run] is what I would be announcing now,” he said. “But these are not normal times and we are still in the fight of our lives for democratic institutions, freedom and basic social progress in America.” More from WaPo Raskin’s move means the field to replace Democratic Sen. BEN CARDIN is largely set: Prince George’s County Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS and Rep. DAVID TRONE are seen as the frontrunners, though they don’t have the Democratic primary to themselves. 2. NAPOLITANO SAYS GOODBYE: Rep. GRACE NAPOLITANO (D-Calif.) is planning to announce today that she won’t seek another term, the L.A. Times’ Seema Mehta and Hannah Wiley report. Currently the oldest member of the House, the 86-year-old California political veteran “has been a fixture in state, local and national politics for nearly four decades.” In the heavily Democratic LA-area seat, an open primary could see lots of candidates jump in: State Sens. BOB ARCHULETA and SUSAN RUBIO are planning to run, as are MARY ANN LUTZ and RICARDO VAZQUES. Some have encouraged former Rep. GIL CISNEROS to make another go of it. 3. UP FOR DEBATE: You can likely expect to see NIKKI HALEY and VIVEK RAMASWAMY on stage for at least the first three GOP presidential primary debates: Both campaigns tell Axios’ Sophia Cai that they’ve amassed 60,000 individual donors already. The donor thresholds for the initial debates are expected to be 40,000, 50,000 and 60,000, respectively. Sen. TIM SCOTT’s (R-S.C.) campaign says he’ll be there too, though without detailing how many donors he has yet. CHRIS CHRISTIE and MIKE PENCE are signaling confidence, again without specific numbers. (Of course, there may be polling requirements for all these debates as well.) 4. THE TIPPING POINT: “Why the Stop Trump effort all comes down to South Carolina,” by Steve Shepard: “[The] dates are far from official, since the other three early states remain in flux. But the most likely scenario is now a historically lengthy runup to the notoriously rough-and-tumble South Carolina primary, raising the stakes even higher for competing there. That could turn the state into a make-or-break for favorite son and daughter candidates Sen. Tim Scott and former Gov. Nikki Haley. It also ups the ante for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.” 5. DEPT. OF POLITICIZING LAW ENFORCEMENT: “Trump Asked About I.R.S. Inquiry of F.B.I. Officials, Ex-Aide Says Under Oath,” by NYT’s Michael Schmidt: “JOHN F. KELLY, who served as former President Donald J. Trump’s second White House chief of staff, said in a sworn statement that Mr. Trump had discussed having the Internal Revenue Service and other federal agencies investigate two F.B.I. officials [PETER STRZOK and LISA PAGE] involved in the investigation into his campaign’s ties to Russia.” 6. DAILY RUDY: “Disciplinary panel calls for Rudy Giuliani’s disbarment,” by Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: “A Washington, D.C.-based bar discipline committee concluded Friday that RUDY GIULIANI should be disbarred for ‘frivolous’ and ‘destructive’ efforts to derail the 2020 presidential election … Giuliani plans to challenge the panel’s findings and recommended sanction in front of a larger bar-discipline board. His ultimate disbarment or other penalty would be decided by the D.C. Court of Appeals.” 7. HEADS UP: The investigation into special envoy to Iran ROBERT MALLEY’s handling of classified materials now includes the FBI, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant reports. That “raises the stakes” of the probe “and suggests that investigators are considering something beyond the lowest-level mishandling of documents.” Malley has been put on unpaid leave during the investigation and had his security clearance suspended, though he said he was confident it would be resolved soon.
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | 8. PRACTICE VS. PREACH: “Ramaswamy Investments Seem at Odds With His Position on ‘Woke’ Culture,” by NYT’s Trip Gabriel: “Ramaswamy himself owns valuable investments in many companies that have embraced environmental, social and governance principles, known as E.S.G. — the kinds of ‘woke’ corporate practices he decries — according to a financial disclosure filed with the Federal Election Commission that was released on Friday. … TRICIA McLAUGHLIN, a senior adviser to Mr. Ramaswamy, said that he did not manage his own stock portfolio.” 9. WHAT A CLUSTER: In an advance clip from his interview airing tomorrow on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” Biden defended his decision to send controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine. “It was a very difficult decision on my part. And by the way, I discussed this with our allies, I discussed this with our friends up on the Hill,” he said. “The Ukrainians are running out of ammunition.” But the move to send the bombs, which are banned by more than 100 countries for the long-term harm they pose to civilians, earned rare backlash from congressional Democrats who typically support Biden on Ukraine, Joe Gould and Lara Seligman report. Though top Republicans and some Dems defended the decision, criticism emerged from both progressives and some Democratic hawks: “I challenge the notion that we should employ the same tactics Russia is using, blurring the lines of moral high ground,” Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Pa.) said. CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza: — “Meet the Psychedelic Boom’s First Responders,” by Chris Colin for Wired: “With more tripping will come more psychic terror. A new movement of volunteers will guide you through your brain melt.” — “How Podcaster Andrew Huberman Got America to Care About Science,” by Time’s Jamie Ducharme: “He’s just happy to be the guy who explains it all.” — “The Forgotten Sovereigns of the Colorado River,” by Rowan Moore Gerety for POLITICO Mag: “As the West’s major river dries up, tribes have asserted rights to its water long ignored by state and federal authorities.” — “My Deeply Unsettling Return to the Moms for Liberty Conference,” by Mother Jones’ Kiera Butler: “Beneath the ‘joyful warrior’ cosplay was a startlingly dark agenda.” — “A Clean Machine,” by James Rosen for The American Mind: “The Beatles and AI.” — “The horrors of Pompeii,” by Guy D. Middleton for Aeon: “The name ‘Eutychis’ was etched into a wall 2,000 years ago. Finding out who she was illuminates the dark side of Rome.” — “The End of Democratic Capitalism?” by Daron Acemoglu for Foreign Affairs: “How Inequality and Insecurity Fueled a Crisis in the West.” — “They Followed Doctors’ Orders. Then Their Children Were Taken Away,” by Shoshana Walter for NYT Mag: “Federal law has put thousands of women on anti-addiction medications into an impossible bind: Give up your treatment or risk losing your baby.” — “The Barbie Movie Is About More Than Selling Dolls,” by Kelly Gilblom and Thomas Buckley for Bloomberg: “With Greta Gerwig’s $100 million new film, Mattel is trying to prove Barbie isn’t hopelessly out of date.” — From the archives: “The ESQ&A: Taylor Swift, In Between Eras,” by Esquire’s Scott Raab, from 2014: “As Swift debuts another rerecorded album, we’re throwing it back to Scott Raab's prescient 2014 interview, when we spoke to the artist on the brink of a new era.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump visited an Iowa Dairy Queen and asked: “What the hell is a ‘Blizzard’?” Tom Price did not say that Trump “can kiss my big medical butt,” as a now entirely retracted Fox News story first alleged. Roger Stone is back on the campaign trail with Trump. Claire McCaskill went to Taylor Swift’s show last night in Kansas City. Larry Summers doesn’t want us to think the war on inflation is over yet. CAMPAIGN MOVE — Trump today will announce Alida Benson as his new Nevada campaign director, The Messenger’s Marc Caputo and Adrian Carrasquillo report. She’s the executive director of the state GOP, which “underscores the close institutional ties Trump has with Nevada’s GOP.” MEDIA MOVES — Kimberly Leonard is joining POLITICO to author Florida Playbook and be a political correspondent from Miami. She previously has been at Insider. Current Florida Playbook author Gary Fineout will move to a different reporting role at POLITICO covering politics and policy in Tallahassee. Sign up for Florida Playbook TRANSITIONS — Angela Perez will be press secretary at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. She most recently was deputy press secretary at the Commerce Department, and is a White House and Biden campaign alum. … Nick Collins is now legislative assistant for Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.). He most recently was associate director for member relations at the National Association of Manufacturers, and is a POLITICO alum. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Audrey Pfund Price, creative director of the Partnership for Public Service and a United Services Organizations alum, and Mike Price, enterprise account executive at Rubrik, welcomed Maxwell Jackson Price, their first son, on Tuesday. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): Elise Joshi of Gen-Z for Change HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Marianne Williamson … White House’s Stef Feldman … Amanda Coyne of Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R-Alaska) office … Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies … Nick Simpson … Eve Samborn McCool of Assemble … Dan Rosenthal of Albright Stonebridge Group … POLITICO’s Sean McMinn and Michael Hunley … Reuters’ Steve Holland … Robert Henline … Howard Gutman of the Gutman Group … Kelley Hudak … Geoff Garin of Hart Research … Andrew Kauders of Cogent Strategies … Andy Flick … Kirk McPike … Anna Quindlen ... Ron Kampeas ... Erik Huey ... NYT’s Lara Jakes … Noah Yantis … former Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) ... Tina Urbanski … Bill Hinkle … Jim Miklaszewski … David Greengrass of House Judiciary … Arlie Ziskend THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): CNN “Fareed Zakaria GPS”: President Joe Biden … Janine di Giovanni. ABC “This Week”: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy … John Kirby. Panel: Vivian Salama, Jane Coaston, Charles Lane and Rachael Bade. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) … Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) … Newt Gingrich … Gordon Chang. MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: California Gov. Gavin Newsom … Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) … DNC Chair Jaime Harrison … Joe Kwon … Rob Crawford. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Chris Christie. Panel: Emily Compagno, Mollie Hemingway, Josh Kraushaar and Juan Williams. NBC “Meet the Press”: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum … New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy. Panel: Brendan Buck, Garrett Haake, Claire McCaskill and Amna Nawaz. CBS “Face the Nation”: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) … Utah Gov. Spencer Cox … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova … Kate Calvin. CNN “State of the Union”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.). Panel: Doug Heye, Bakari Sellers, Alyssa Farah Griffin and Ashley Allison. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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