Saturday, June 3, 2023

☕ No Skynet yet

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Morning Brew

Onekind

Good morning. Saturday morning in June = BIG time to hit up a farmers market. Yesterday, Matty asked everyone: Which vendor at the market do you always go to first? Our answers…

  • Molly: pickle stand
  • Sam: the closest one that's giving out free samples
  • Abby: bread, because they always run out if you don't get there early
  • Cassandra: compost drop-off
  • Neal: eggs for those marigold yolks
  • Matty: hummus vendor

How about you?

Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

13,240.77

S&P

4,282.37

Dow

33,762.76

10-Year

3.699%

Bitcoin

$27,249.82

Lululemon

$365.44

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 2:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks leaped up like an Olympic pole-vaulter yesterday as investors celebrated the deal to lift the debt ceiling being on its way to President Biden's desk and a jobs report that showed the economy is still going strong. Biden plans to sign the deal, which he described as averting "an economic collapse," today.
  • Stock spotlight: Lululemon stretched toward the heavens after beating earnings expectations thanks to a 24% year over year jump in sales.
 

ECONOMY

Labor market just won't turn the heat down

Paris Hilton The Simple Life/20th Century Studios via Giphy

The US keeps adding jobs like it's its job, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that dropped yesterday.

The economy gained 339,000 payrolled employees in May, more than in each of the preceding three months and way more than the 190,000 Dow Jones predicted (to be fair, expert estimates lowballed 13 of the last 16 job reports, according to CNBC).

All that growth happened despite climbing interest rates, inflation, recent bank failures, and a nerve-racking debt ceiling standoff that threatened to destroy the economy.

Wall Street interpreted the data as a big green "buy" sign. But not all indications pointed to the hot streak continuing indefinitely.

Signs a cooldown might be coming

The unemployment rate inched up last month, wage growth slowed, and workers appear less self-assured that the labor market is their oyster.

  • The self-employed crowd lost 369,000 people from its ranks in May, a possible sign that folks might be ditching the flexibility of selling [insert homemade artisanal product here] for the security of a traditional employer.
  • And employees have become less inclined to tell their boss, "See you never!": Recent data shows the quit rate has declined from an all-time high in late 2021, bringing an end to the pandemic job-hopping trend dubbed the Great Resignation.

Someone at the Fed better have a PhD in Mixed Signals Processing

Powell and friends will have to use the conflicting economic indicators to decide whether to further crank up interest rates at their next meeting. The Federal Reserve has been hinting that it might cease raising interest rates, and investors seem convinced the central bank will follow through and at least "skip" a hike this month even though the labor market is still radiating heat.

Here are the odds: After the jobs data came out, investors are betting that there's a 3-to-1 chance that interest rates will stay flat, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.—SK

     

TOGETHER WITH ONEKIND

Your dreamiest skin, for free

Onekind

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With a calming blend of chamomile, lavender, and rose, this stuff is a rejuvenating garden party for your face—and it's made for all skin types and ages.

For a limited time, you can get it for *free* with code BREW. All you gotta pay is S&H.

Get dewy.

WORLD

Tour de headlines

A woman looking at YouTube Aytac Unal/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

⏯️ YouTube will allow election denials. Reversing a two-year-old policy, YouTube said yesterday that it would no longer take down content containing false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 US presidential election or other past presidential contests. The company explained that leaving the policy in place could curtail political speech "without meaningfully reducing the risk of violence or other real-world harm." However, it hasn't given the final word on how it plans to treat the 2024 election, saying it would provide more information on that in the future.

Companies are paying up over forever chemicals. Chemical makers Chemours, DuPont de Nemours, and Corteva said yesterday that they agreed to pay $1.19 billion to resolve claims that they were responsible for contaminating US water systems with PFAS. But that settlement is just a drop in the bucket when it comes to litigation against many companies over these chemicals in the water supply. Thousands of cases over the issue have been consolidated in federal court in South Carolina, and the first major trial against 3M is scheduled to start Monday. But Bloomberg reports 3M is nearing a deal to settle the pollution allegations for at least $10 billion instead.

Don't use Venmo to park your cash, regulator warns. Venmo may be the best way to remind your friend that she still hasn't settled up for her share of last month's group dinner, but it's not much better than stuffing bills under your mattress when it comes to keeping your money safe long term, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau cautioned. The app and others, like CashApp, Apple Pay, and PayPal, aren't banks, so the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation doesn't provide insurance for funds stored there, the CFPB pointed out. The agency said there are billions of dollars at risk if these apps suffer an SVB-like failure.

TELECOM

Amazon wants to put your cell service on Prime

Amazon prime logo on phone screen Illustration: Alyssa Nassner, Logo: Amazon

There might be a new player in the telecom field, and it's not a startup trying to make garbled, 30-second Owl City ringtones a thing again. Amazon is negotiating with the major wireless carriers about offering cheap (anywhere from $10 to free) wireless plans for Prime members, anonymous sources told Bloomberg.

Amazon denied that such a plan was in the works, and T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon said they were not in talks with the company.

But the market reacted anyway

For the big mobile carriers, the news sent their stocks down as Wall Street feared a new low-cost mobile offering could undercut their vice grip on the market. Verizon and AT&T dropped more than 3% yesterday, and T-Mobile fell over 7%.

But the smallest player of the group, Dish Network, which declined to comment, saw its shares surge 16%. The provider is trying to revamp its image from the people who sold your parents an expensive satellite dish to a big-name wireless competitor. And a deal with Amazon could be the key to making that happen.

Looking ahead…any potential deal is still months away from an official announcement, and there's a chance the whole thing will fall through, insiders say. But there's also a chance that Amazon is gearing up to take over a whole new market.—MM

     

FROM THE CREW

The Crew

How to battle burnout in IT. Burnout is real, but how can we beat it? Signature HealthCARE CIO and VP Nick Szymanski shared ways to provide relief to an IT crew that's working around the clock, including one key practice: recognition. Read about the challenges he's faced, the practices he relies on, and the lessons he's learned.

AI

No, an AI drone did not kill its handler in a simulation

The US Air Force quickly debunked a story about an AI drone killing its handler in a simulated mission Cameron Abbas / Getty Images

Tell your neighbor they can come out of their doomsday shelter—that viral story about a drone going Skynet mode on its human operator isn't true.

The story: On Thursday, based on an aerospace association's blog, news sites reported that a US Air Force colonel recently said an AI drone killed its supervisor in a mission simulation. To make matters worse, Twitter did its everybody-panic-right-now thing, and some posts amplifying the story left out the word "simulation."

But…the Air Force clarified that the simulated mission never happened, and news sites quickly updated online articles to say the colonel was speaking hypothetically about a thought experiment.

Still, it's understandable that people were quick to believe the story given recent statements made about AI:

  • On the same day the false story broke, President Joe Biden said some AI scientists he's met with "are very worried that AI can actually overtake human thinking and planning" in an address to…the Air Force Academy's graduating class.
  • Earlier in the week, Yoshua Bengio, one of AI's "godfathers," told the BBC that the military is "one of the worst places where we could put a super-intelligent AI."

Of course, if the spread of misinformation online is a concern, it looks like AI's not the only possible culprit.—ML

     

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Anti-theft locked beauty products with customer service button at Walgreens pharmacy, Queens, New York Lindsey Nicholson/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Stat: Whether your local pharmacy really needs to keep the detergent under lock and key is still up for debate, but 50% of retail and grocery workers report they've seen a theft (or at least an attempted one) at their stores since October 2022, according to a recent survey by Axonify. The workers' experience backs up statements from retailers like Target and BJ's Wholesale, claiming that theft is taking a bite out of their bottom line.

Quote: "The world ran out of pink."

According to production designer Sarah Greenwood, constructing a scaled Barbie Dream House for Greta Gerwig's upcoming film required so much fluorescent pink paint that the specific Rosco shade they used became hard to come by, even internationally. Despite This Barbie causing fuchsia paint shortages, Gerwig told Architectural Digest all that pink was needed to maintain the "kid-ness" of the universe Barbie inhabits in the movie.

Read: Meet the ex-insurance exec who built a $350 million cannabis edibles empire. (Forbes)

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • More than 200 people were killed and many more were injured in a three-train collision in India.
  • CIA Director Bill Burns made an unpublicized trip to China last month in an effort to keep things from getting too tense in the wake of the spy balloon incident.
  • Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby, has suspended all racing following the death of 12 horses at the track last month.
  • The judge overseeing Disney's lawsuit against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis disqualified himself from the case because a third-degree relative owns Disney stock, despite calling the governor's bid to get him off the suit "rank judge-shopping."
  • Taylor Swift has announced the first international dates for her Eras Tour, in case you haven't been able to score tickets locally.

RECS

Saturday To-Do List graphic

Products people swear are life-changing: And they're all under $50.

Test your knowledge of time and space: This game asks you to guess the time and location old photos come from.

How many ads do you see in a day? Our video team explains why it's not the number everyone thinks. (YouTube)

Stars—they're not just like us: As these photos prove.

Clickbait: Looking for quick, authoritative marketing news? Look no further than Marketing Brew—it covers the latest trends, campaigns, and more. Subscribe today.

Future financin': It's cap + gown season. Wanna give your grad a savings head start? CD Valet can help. They'll give you the best CD rates aggregated from over 2,500 financial institutions. Give a gift that earns.*

*This is sponsored advertising content.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew crossword: Mary put together a banger of a crossword for you today that spans sports, music, history, and a lot more topics. Check it out here.

Open House

Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section that knows Spotify's ocean sounds playlist just isn't enough. We'll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.

Cleveland, Ohio lighthouseGSA Auctions

Today's listing is in Cleveland, OH, and it's part of the US' plan to offload some old lighthouses. So, yeah…it's a crumbling piece of harbor history that's definitely full of only good vibes and is lighthouse-keeper-ghost-free. Amenities include:

  • 4 circular floors
  • Attached-but-deteriorating living quarters
  • Cage room

The bidding for the lighthouse hasn't started, but guess the opening bid?

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AROUND THE BREW

Mo' Money, Mo' Problems

Mo' Money, Mo' Problems

Does budgeting for the second half of the year stress you out? Stress less with our course, Financial Forecasting, returning on June 5. (That's Monday!)

Salary negotiation is a key skill to boost your earnings. Money Scoop explains how to prepare for and control the convo.

Retail leaders like Mejuri, Casper, and more shared the DTC marketing strategies they use to keep customers coming back. Get the guide.

ANSWER

$25,000

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Molly Liebergall, and Abigail Rubenstein

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