Good morning. The House of Representatives has reached a debt limit bill, following a long day of...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
 | | What's Now Indispensable For Modern Traders | | |  | | I read a headline today about how the man credited with predicting 2007's credit crash and subsequent great financial crisis said, "The worst is still ahead of us." On the surface, yes, a credit crunch could certainly tip the U.S. into recession...
The Wall Street Journal even reported in March that 186 banks are in a similar condition to Silicon Valley Bank! Long story short, it's time to buckle up and prepare for some serious volatility in the markets.
Or use artificial intelligence to predict market trends 1 - 3 days in advance.
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| | |  | DOW 33,301.87 | -0.68% | | | | | S&P 4,055.99 | -0.38% | | |  | NASDAQ 11,854.35 | +0.47% | | | | | *As of market close | | | • | Stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, with a small gain for tech stocks following solid earnings. | | | • | Oil slid 3.6 percent, closing at $74.28 per barrel. | | | • | Gold dipped 0.3 percent, ending at $1,998 per ounce. | | | • | Cryptocurrencies popped higher, then slid, with Bitcoin at $27,942 at the stock market close. | | | | | | | |
| | | This Top Oligopoly Player Still Has Earnings Power | | | | As an investment, companies with few competitors are better than companies with many competitors. That's because competition tends to keep prices low and costs high. That's good for consumers, but not healthy for companies – or their shareholders.
That's why companies with a handful of competitors tend to be more consistently profitable. That can keep share prices generally rising over time, and with lower volatility. These companies also tend to make for attractive income plays.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Insider Trading Report: US Bancorp (USB) | | | | Alan Colberg, a director at US Bancorp (USB), recently bought 10,000 shares. The buy increased his position by over 1,000 percent, and came to a total cost of $341,380.
This marks the first insider buy at the regional bank in over two years. Otherwise, company executives, including the company CEO and CFO, have been regular and steady sellers of shares, largely after stock options have vested.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Unusual Options Activity: Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) | | | | Cruise line operator Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) has been rangebound for several months after a big drop nearly a year ago. One trader sees shares trending lower in the coming weeks.
That's based on the May $8.50 puts. With 22 days until expiration, 5,310 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 100, for a 53-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.31 to make the bearish bet.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | • | First Republic Shares Continue Lower on Investor Skepticism
First Republic Bank (FRC) saw shares drop again on Wednesday, following the report on Tuesday that it lost nearly 41 percent of deposits in the first quarter. The market sees further pressure on the regional bank. Other regional banks traded lower, but nowhere near as much as First Republic, suggesting a lower fear of contagion. | | | | • | Norfolk Southern Reports $387 Million Charge on East Palestine Derailment
Railroad Norfolk Southern (NSC) reported an initial charge of $387 million related to the derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. The train that derailed was carrying toxic waste. The charge saw the company go from a 1 percent rise in income to a 34 percent drop overall. | | | | • | Wendy's to Sell Canned Chili in Grocery Stores
Fast food chain Wendy's (WEN) is teaming up with Conagra (CAG) to provide the company's chili in canned stores. The can is priced at $4.49. Wendy's has had chili on the menu since 1969, and is one of the restaurant's most popular foods. The company came up with the idea to serve chili as a way to avoid wasting leftover hamburger meat. | | | | • | U.K. Regulator Blocks Microsoft-Activision Merger
The United Kingdom's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has announced that it plans to block the merger between Microsoft (MSFT) and video game developer Activision (ATVI). The deal was first announced in January 2022, at a valuation of $68.7 billion. The CMA noted that the merger, if approved, would lead to a higher market share of the cloud gaming market in the U.K. | | | | • | SPAC Companies Running Out of Cash
Companies that went public over the past few years via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) are running out of cash. Typically, a SPAC deal loaded up early-stage companies with cash, with the expectation that they could go years without having to raise capital, or would generate enough revenue by then. So far, at least 12 companies that went public via SPAC have gone bankrupt. | | |
| | | | TOP | | | CMG | 12.913% | | | | MSFT | 7.244% | | | | ALLE | 5.434% | | | | CSGP | 4.993% | | | | MU | 4.954% | | | | BOTTOM | | | FRC | 29.753% | | | | ENPH | 25.734% | | | | ATVI | 11.448% | | | | SEDG | 10.427% | | | | ODFL | 9.974% | | | | |
| | |  | | We estimate the 'drop dead' date for the debt ceiling is between late July and mid-August, depending on outlays. For this reason, we suspect that when Treasury provides an update on timing (likely this week), they will continue emphasizing that they are confident in avoiding a breach through early June, but unable to project a later date with the requisite degree of confidence. This may keep the DC debate focused on a June timeline, despite the likelihood that we can survive deeper into the summer. | | - Stan Shipley, economist at Evercore ISI, on the likely dates when the debt ceiling limit could start to materially impact financial markets. | |
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