Monday, April 24, 2023

Moscow’s flex at the U.N.

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Apr 24, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ari Hawkins

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Hi, Ari Hawkins here, a POLITICO fellow on the national security team. I’m delighted to guide you through this week’s diplomatic cooperation and kerfuffles, from the Kremlin to North Korea. Let’s get to it!  

ALL EYES ON MOSCOW: Russia's longtime foreign minister Sergey Lavrov is scheduled to chair a Security Council meeting today on defending the principles of the U.N. Charter.

Moscow took the rotational presidency of the bloc at the start of the month, taking the helm as the Russian war against Ukraine stretches into its second year. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba characterized the dynamic as the “world's worst April fool's joke.”

On the agenda: Lavrov is scheduled to speak to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, and is expected to discuss the Black Sea grain export deal, the pact that enabled Ukraine to resume exports past May 15. Russia has threatened to let the deal expire unless Western countries agree to numerous changes Moscow claims harm their exports.

Today’s meeting is another ideal platform for the Kremlin as it tries to convince more countries to roll back aid to Kyiv.

Moscow has already used its role as president of the U.N. Security Council to defend abductions of Ukrainian children and accused Western countries of fueling the war. My colleague Nahal Toosi has more.

More charter chatter: The secretary-general has condemned the Russian invasion, but leaked U.S. intelligence appears to outline Washington’s concerns that Guterres may be too accommodating toward Moscow. One leaked file, according to the BBC, said Guterres emphasized supporting Moscow’s export ability “even if that involves sanctioned Russian entities or individuals."

THE WEEK AHEAD

Tuesday: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to be in Madrid on Tuesday and Wednesday, as part of a charm offensive across Europe. He arrived in Portugal on Friday.

Wednesday: The White House will host South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as the countries grapple with the growing threat of North Korea.

Thursday: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be in New York at an international summit championing sustainability Thursday and Friday. Other scheduled attendees include French President Emmanuel Macron and musician John Legend. 

Russia and China’s defense ministers are expected to arrive in New Delhi to attend an international security meeting Thursday and Friday. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting is aimed at boosting bilateral ties throughout Eurasian counties.

Sunday: Paraguayans head to the polls to choose their president in an election marked by a bitter divide between pro-Chinese and pro-Taiwanense blocs.

WHAT SOUTH KOREA WANTS FROM BIDEN: 

The South Korean president’s stint in the U.S. this week marks the first state visit by a leader from the country to Washington in a decade and the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-ROK alliance. In addition to his White House discussions, Yoon is also set to address Congress on Thursday.

HERMIT KINGDOM: U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to pledge “substantial” steps to reiterate Washington’s commitment to deterring a North Korean nuclear attack, a senior U.S. official told Reuters.

What else to watch for: Yoon said last week that the country might extend military support for Kyiv if it comes under a large-scale civilian attack. The remarks are the first time Seoul has expressed willingness to consider providing weapons to Ukraine, and were later condemned by a Kremlin spokesperson.

TAIWAN’S ELECTION IN ASUNCIÓN: The question of how to treat Taiwan has become a dominant issue of the country’s election, which takes place this weekend.

Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu told reporters he was “concerned” by comments from Paraguayan presidential candidate Efraín Alegre, who said ties with Taiwan have harmed the country’s agricultural sector.

Polling shows Alegre, who leads the center-left Concertacion Nacional coalition, is neck-and-neck with ruling party candidate Santiago Peña. Peña has vowed to maintain relations with Taiwan, while Alegre has called to break off ties, arguing the regime’s relationship with Taipei shut the country out of lucrative Chinese markets.

Since the election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, Beijing has embarked on a pressure campaign to poach the island’s friends. China, which claims ownership over the self-governing strip, opposes exchanges between Taiwan and any of its 13 diplomatic allies.

LULA’S EUROPEAN TOUR: 

Brazil’s president, who railed against his predecessor's isolationist policies, is using his first trip to Europe since being re-elected to relaunch “Brazil’s diplomatic relations with its main partners,” according to a government note.

Dirty details: Lula’s trip included a Portugal-Brazil summit on Sunday, where the governments of Portugal and Brazil signed 13 bilateral agreements covering the areas of health, education and the economy. On his European tour, Lula is expected to relaunch negotiations for a major free trade deal between South America’s Mercosur bloc and the EU.

ICYMI: Last week, Lula hosted the Russian foreign minister, leading to small protests outside of the Brazilian embassy from Portugal's Ukrainian community.

The Brazilian leader earlier caused controversy when he said that both Kyiv and Moscow decided to go to war, and that the U.S. was “stimulating” the conflict.

DUAL NATIONALS TARGETED: The wife of a French-Afghan journalist being held by the Taliban told Global Insider the regime is refusing to release information about his case.

Aleksandra Mostovaja said since her husband Mortaza Behboudi was arrested in Kabul on Jan. 7, there has “not been any official communication between me and the Taliban. We’ve not been officially told of the accusations.”

Mostovaja said the French Foreign Ministry attempted to assist with indirect communications with the Taliban using special envoys. “But of course, because there's no French representation in Afghanistan, their work is more limited,” she said.

Behboudi, co-founder of Guiti News — an independent news website that focuses on mass migration and refugee issues, lived in Paris, and came to Kabul on Jan. 5 for a reporting assignment. He was reportedly arrested by the Taliban two days after arriving.

The detainment of Behboudi — who has both Afghan and French citizenship — comes as countries, most consistently Iran, escalate their targeting of dual nationals. Many are perceived to have links with Western cultural institutions, leading to allegations of serving a foreign power, according to a report from Human Rights Watch.

Mostovaja said she is in touch with officials from the EU and the French government who continue to assist with indirect communications. The Taliban granted her a brief phone call with Behboudi on Jan. 26, which was monitored. “He said I should not worry, but that’s just his character,” Mostovaja told reporter Zhakfar Ahmadi. “I am really truly worried for his mental and physical condition.”

 

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

WESTERN NATIONS FLEE SUDAN: With ceasefires failing to hold in the Sundanese capital, nations have moved rapidly to evacuate diplomats and their dependents from Khartoum. The U.K. carried out what Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a “complex and rapid” evacuation on Sunday that involved U.K. special forces and the Parachute Regiment.

Biden on Saturday confirmed the evacuations of U.S. government personnel from Khartoum. The U.S. president praised the “unmatched skill” of American forces involved in the operation and noted that Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and Djibouti assisted with evacuations.

RIYADH AND TEHRAN MEND TIES: Saudi Arabia and Iran traded Eid greetings using diplomatic channels to commemorate the Muslim holiday over the weekend, the latest sign of rapidly improving ties between long-standing rivals. The communications come more than a month after the governments agreed to a Chinese-brokered deal that re-established diplomatic relations.

PANIC IN BELGOROD: More than 3,000 residents of apartment buildings in the Russian city of Belgorod were evacuated over the weekend after an explosive device was found at the site days after a Russian fighter jet accidentally dropped a bomb that injured Russian civilians.

GLOBETROTTERS

NEW DELHI TECH: Apple is among the companies hoping to turn India into a potential manufacturing hub. The tech giant has reportedly begun to move some of its production out of Beijing, amid rising wages and an aging population. India’s population in contrast is on track to surpass China’s by mid-2023.

MOVES

British Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab resigned Friday after an investigation found he bullied civil servants. Read more here.

Jeremy Cliffe is starting next month as special adviser and chief speechwriter to the president of Open Society Foundations Mark Malloch-Brown.

Brazil’s top national security adviser General Marcos Gonçalves Dias resigned last week amid a scandal related to his presence during the country’s January riots.

Susan Rice is stepping down as Biden’s domestic policy advisor.

BRAIN FOOD

‘I’ll Burn You Alive’: Divisions within the Iranian diaspora are upending an increasingly anxious American foreign policy apparatus, from Foreign Affairs editor Daniel Block.

The rise of Syria’s White Helmets, what the death of co-founder James Le Mesurier shows about Russian disinformation.

ONE FUN THINGTHE JABBARI LINCOLN FILES: An audio spy thriller from former CIA analyst YAYA FANUSIE, which tells the story of a Muslim financial expert who stumbles upon a sophisticated cyber plot.

Thanks to Ryan Heath, Nahal Toosi, editor Heidi Vogt and producer Sophie Gardner.

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