| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | SCOTUS KEEPS STATUS QUO — “Supreme Court maintains abortion pill access for now as legal fight continues,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein and Josh Gerstein: “The high court’s decision keeps the drug, mifepristone, available for now, but the legal battle over the drug, which has become the most common method of abortion nationwide, could drag on for months if not years to come. … Justices SAMUEL ALITO and CLARENCE THOMAS dissented from the Supreme Court’s action, which prevents earlier rulings from a Texas-based judge and a federal appeals court from taking effect.” Related reads: NYT’s Katie Glueck on abortion and 2024: “Democrats are vowing to make abortion rights a pillar of their campaigns, while Republicans are caught between their conservative base and a public that generally backs access to the procedure.” … CNN’s Casey Tolan and Isabelle Chapman on trial-court judge MATTHEW KACSMARYK’s finances: “Details about multimillion-dollar stock holding concealed in abortion pill judge’s financial disclosures.” BRAGG BACKS DOWN — “Bragg drops bid to block former Trump investigator from testifying to Congress,” by Erica Orden and Kyle Cheney: “The Manhattan DA said the GOP-led Judiciary Committee will permit his counsel to attend the interview.”
|  Doug Sosnik’s latest big-picture take on the state of American politics digs deeper into what he and others have been calling “the diploma divide.” | Jason Davis/Getty Images | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NEW SOSNIK MEMO — As longtime readers know, we are big fans of the regular political memos written by DOUG SOSNIK, a senior adviser to BILL CLINTON for six years at the White House. Sosnik’s latest big-picture take on the state of American politics digs deeper into what he and others have been calling “the diploma divide,” and it offers an excellent preview of the 2024 House, Senate and presidential elections. Read his full memo and slides He begins with the observation that “college educated voters are now more likely to identify as Democrats, and those without college degrees — particularly white voters, but increasingly all Americans — support Republicans.” These changes mean that: “Culturally, a person’s educational attainment increasingly correlates with their views on a wide range of issues, including abortion, attitudes about LGBTQ+ rights, and the relationship between government and organized religion. It also extends to cultural consumption (movies, TV, books), social media choices, and voters’ sources of information that shape their understanding of facts. “As a result of these economic and cultural trends, politics now has a class-based architecture where cultural affinity now surpasses voters’ narrow economic self-interests. “This educational sorting has made the vast majority of states no longer politically competitive. It is the battleground states in the middle — where education levels are neither disproportionately high nor low — that will decide the 2024 presidential election.”
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce fights for pro-growth policies that benefit small businesses. The Chamber represents members across the country and in every sector, and 90% of the Chambers’ members are small businesses and state and local Chambers of Commerce – the backbone of the American economy.
Hear from Main Street businesses on how the Chamber advocates for them during challenging times. The U.S. Chamber is big on small business. | | | Some key takeaways about these trends and 2024 that caught our attention: 1. Republicans’ advantage in the Electoral College and Senate has been turbocharged by their advantage with non-college-educated voters, who live disproportionately in rural states, and by the concentrated distribution of urban-dwelling, highly educated, Democratic voters. How wide has this structural gap become? Sosnik notes:
- In the Senate, “despite the fact that Democrats have only a two-seat majority, there are 41 million more Americans living in the states that they represent.”
- In the 2020 presidential election, JOE “BIDEN’s seven million vote margin of victory in California and New York was greater than his national vote advantage over [DONALD] TRUMP.”
2. The 2024 presidential election will likely be fought in just eight states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and Sosnik has a nice analysis of what those states all have in common: a recent history of close elections, divided state governments, education levels “at or near the national average,” and influential blocs of independent and suburban voters.
|  | 3. The education divide has effectively nationalized Senate races. “[A]s recently as 2009,” Sosnik notes, “almost half of the Senators (23) were from a different party than the presidential candidate who had carried their state in the previous election.” That’s now only true of five seats, and three of them — in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia — are held by Democrats who are up in 2024. That means Republicans should be favored to win back the Senate. And yet they could blow it again by nominating fringe candidates. 4. The House battlefield will be small and overwhelmingly suburban. “As Americans have increasingly self-selected where they live based on tribal politics, driven by education and economic status, the suburbs have become the last battleground in American politics,” Sosnik writes. “They will again determine control in 2024, with 39 of the 42 competitive races in the suburbs. There are only three rural districts that are considered competitive (2 Democratic and 1 Republican), with not a single urban district considered at risk for Democrats.” Finally, we recommend reading Sosnik’s take alongside this piece by former AFL-CIO political director MICHAEL PODHORZER, who offers his explanation for why this shift has occurred. Podhorzer is responding to what he believes is a false narrative in the media “that our toxic divisions are primarily a backlash against the over-woke, over-educated white liberals who have captured the Democratic Party.” Instead, he offers three other reasons: (1) white evangelicals have quit the Democratic Party, (2) “consistently Democratic districts have done better economically than the consistently Republican districts,” and (3) “the reconstitution of both Democrats and Republicans as regional parties.” Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce advocates for a tax and regulatory environment that helps—not hurts—small business owners to create jobs and serve our communities and economy.
Every day, the Chamber fights for the 90% of its members who are small businesses and state and local Chambers of Commerce. They are concerned about inflation, regulation, and the worker shortage.
But the Chamber’s work doesn’t stop with advocacy.
CO—by U.S. Chamber of Commerce—is a “how-to” resource for anyone who has questions about starting, running, or growing a small business. | | | BEE CAREFUL! — If you’re at the Time mag party next weekend at the residence of the Swiss Ambassador after the WHCA dinner, note this warning on the RSVP confirmation: “Beehives on site: Please be aware that there are beehives on the southern end of the Embassy compound. All guests, in particular those with a bee allergy, are advised to avoid the area of the hives, to exercise caution, and to bring appropriate remedies against bee stings.”
| | BIDEN’S SATURDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SATURDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule. | | | | | | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  President Joe Biden signs an executive order yesterday creating the White House Office of Environmental Justice. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. NIGHT OF THE HUNTER: “Hunter Biden lawyers to meet with Justice Department officials next week as scrutiny of investigation intensifies,” by CNN’s Paula Reid, Kara Scannell, Alayna Treene and Sara Murray: “Lawyers for HUNTER BIDEN are scheduled to meet next week with US attorney DAVID WEISS and at least one senior career official from Justice Department headquarters to discuss the long-running investigation into the president’s son … The Hunter Biden legal team had reached out to Justice officials in recent weeks, asking for an update on the case.” 2. EYES ON THE SKIES: “FAA Acting Chief Billy Nolen to Depart,” by WSJ’s Andrew Tangel and Alison Sider: “He plans to leave the agency sometime this summer … [BILLY] NOLEN has taken himself out of consideration by the White House to fill the job permanently … Some current and former FAA officials and U.S. airline industry officials have been frustrated with what they see as a prolonged lack of permanent leadership.” 3. DEPT. OF JUSTICE: “Jim Justice plans Senate launch for next week,” by Holly Otterbein and Ally Mutnick: “He will make his announcement on Thursday evening at The Greenbrier … Still, [West Virginia Gov. JIM] JUSTICE is known to change plans suddenly. While the event is set for Thursday, he could still punt a decision to later.” 4. BIG CLIMATE MOVE: “EPA is preparing aggressive new rules for power plant pollution that could prompt legal challenges,” by CNN’s Ella Nilsen: “Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency has been exploring ways to tighten the rules for not just new power plants that will run on natural gas, but existing plants too … The rules, which could be announced as early as Thursday, are among the most highly watched forthcoming actions from the EPA.” 5. WHO’S AT DEFAULT: As of yesterday, Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY hasn’t yet gotten enough votes from his conference to pass his debt ceiling/spending cuts/energy bill, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reports. There are holdouts in various factions with opposing demands, from moderates to hard-liners to Northeasterners, which could make solving the problem harder. Food stamps, ethanol and solar are among the sticking points. The White House, meanwhile, is holding steady: no secret discussions with McCarthy, no compromises, no plans other than waiting for Republicans to fold on a clean debt ceiling increase, Eli Stokols reports. Officials are going on offense against McCarthy and believe they’ll be able to avert catastrophe. But, but, but: Their strategy so far hasn’t worked, with Republicans showing no intention to cave, and “Biden is running out of time and options,” warns WaPo’s Jeff Stein. And politically, Democrats may not be able to count on having public opinion on their side, like BARACK OBAMA did in 2011, Steve Shepard reports: This time, the polling so far is mixed and indicates that Americans would blame both parties. Reality check: “The Debt Ceiling Debate Is About More Than Debt,” by NYT’s Jim Tankersley: “Republicans’ opening bid to avert economic catastrophe by raising the nation’s borrowing limit focuses more on energy policy than reducing debt.” 6. JACK THE DRIPPER: “Airman Shared Sensitive Intelligence More Widely and for Longer Than Previously Known,” by NYT’s Aric Toler, Malachy Browne and Julian Barnes: “In February 2022, soon after the invasion of Ukraine, a user profile matching that of Airman JACK TEIXEIRA began posting secret intelligence on the Russian war effort on a previously undisclosed chat group on Discord … The chat group contained about 600 members.” — “FBI leak investigators home in on members of private Discord server,” by WaPo’s Shane Harris, Samuel Oakford and Devlin Barrett: “The questions included how members of the server first came to know Teixeira, what video games they played together and whether any of the members were foreign nationals.” 7. THE PLOT TO OVERTURN THE ELECTION: “Testimony Suggests Trump Was at Meeting About Accessing Voting Software,” by NYT’s Richard Fausset and Danny Hakim in Atlanta: “In its letter, Free Speech for People argued that the testimony and other details that have been made public prove that Mr. Trump ‘was, at a minimum, aware’ of an ‘unlawful, multistate plot’ to access and copy voting system software.” 8. LATEST IN SUDAN: “Sudan army OKs foreign evacuation as Khartoum battle rages,” by Reuters’ Khalid Abdelaziz and Nafisa Eltahir in Khartoum: “Sudan’s army said on Saturday it had agreed to help evacuate foreign nationals as gunfire and air strikes echoed across Khartoum. … [Army chief ABDEL FATTEH AL-BURHAN] said the United States, Britain, France and China would evacuate diplomats and other nationals from Khartoum ‘in the coming hours’ … Burhan said the army was providing safe pathways but that some airports including in Khartoum and Darfur’s largest city Nyala were still problematic.” 9. HERE COMES MARK ROBINSON: “The GOP’s new electability problem: North Carolina,” by Zach Montellaro and Natalie Allison: “Republicans are on the verge of wiping out what remains of Democrats’ political power in North Carolina. The only thing they need is for the likely nominee for governor to not blow it up. On Saturday, when the state’s lightning rod Republican lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, formally announces his gubernatorial campaign, polls suggest he will instantly become the frontrunner for the nomination. He’ll saddle the GOP with a laundry list of his past public controversies.” CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies
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Bruce Plante - Cagle Cartoons | GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza: — “TikTok’s Algorithm Keeps Pushing Suicide to Vulnerable Kids,” by Bloomberg Businessweek’s Olivia Carville: “The superpopular app can serve up a stream of anxiety and despair to teens. TikTok says it’s making improvements but now faces a flood of lawsuits after multiple deaths.” — “Sudan’s outsider: how a paramilitary leader fell out with the army and plunged the country into war,” by the Guardian’s Nesrine Malik: “The civilians of Sudan have been trying to throw off military rule for decades, but now find themselves caught in the middle of a deadly power struggle between former allies turned bitter opponents.” — “What Was Twitter, Anyway?” by Willy Staley in the NYT Magazine: “Whether the platform is dying or not, it’s time to reckon with how exactly it broke our brains.” — “The Hacker,” by Maddy Crowell in the Columbia Journalism Review: “Runa Sandvik has made it her life’s work to protect journalists against cyberattacks. Authoritarian regimes are keeping her in business.” — “I Really Didn’t Want to Go,” by Lauren Oyler in Harper’s: “On the Goop cruise.” — “Who Killed Kesher’s Rabbi?” by Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch: “Nearly 40 years after the brazen murder of Rabbi Philip Rabinowitz, the cold case continues to haunt the prominent D.C. congregation where he served as rabbi.” — “What’s Behind Tricia Cotham’s Democratic Divorce,” by The Assembly’s Jim Morrill: “The state legislator from Mecklenburg County says Democrats drove her away. Her former allies are puzzled—and say she doesn’t seem to be the same person.” — “Is gold hidden under a California peak? This treasure map says so,” by the L.A. Times’ Daniel Miller: “The tale of that man, his map, and the place it led to is really one about Southern California’s twin mirages — fame and fortune — and the people who seek one or the other. Or both.” — “How Weed Strains Get Their (Amusing, Provocative, Downright Wacky) Names,” by Bill Shapiro in Esquire: “Durban Poison? Grandaddy Purple? Meat Breath? We go deep into the cannabis industry to find out how weed names are created—and how you know if this bud’s for you.” — “The mystery of Morocco’s missing king,” by Nicolas Pelham in The Economist’s 1843 Magazine: “In 2018 a German kickboxer befriended Mohammed VI. The monarch has rarely been seen since.” — “Bloomberg is contemplating life without its founder,” by FT’s Robin Wigglesworth: “Michael Bloomberg is lining up succession and one of the largest charitable donations in history.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump knows how to fold a slice of pizza. Thomas Peterffy is cutting a $1 million check to Glenn Youngkin. E. Jean Carroll’s initial defamation case against Trump has gone back to a district court judge. Chris Christie raised his voice at Mark Leibovich. IN MEMORIAM — “Bud Shuster, congressional ‘King of Asphalt,’ dies at 91,” by WaPo’s Emily Langer: The Pennsylvania Republican “became [House Public Works] chairman after the Republican takeover in the 1994 midterm elections and led the committee for six years. The Washington Post once described him as ‘arguably the last great committee-chairman power baron to walk the halls of Congress.’” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-S.C.) presidential exploratory committee is having a call day and retreat in Charleston on May 23 with Mikee Johnson, his national finance co-chair. The save-the-date invite OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a Churchill Tommy Gun Society dinner with special guest NYC Mayor Eric Adams last night, hosted by Jamie Weinstein and Michelle Fields at their Woodland Normanstone house: Abby Phillip, Josh Dawsey, Daniel Lippman and Elaina Plott. — SPOTTED at Kimbell & Associates’ spring happy hour Wednesday night: Reps. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), William Timmons (R-S.C.), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), Carol Miller (R-W.Va.), Troy Balderson (R-Ohio), Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.), John Curtis (R-Utah) and Kevin Hern (R-Ohio) and Jeff Kimbell. TRANSITION — Former Nevada Senate nominee Adam Laxalt is joining Never Back Down as chair, per Semafor’s Shelby Talcott. The super PAC supporting a Ron DeSantis presidential bid will continue to have Ken Cuccinelli in his previous role as founder. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Robert Schwartz, senior government relations program manager at Land Trust Alliance, and Shana Schwartz, manager of operations, meetings and events at the Association of American Medical Colleges, welcomed Lily Rachel Schwartz on Wednesday. Pic — Walt Cronkite, PR manager at Latham & Watkins and a CBS News alum, and Abby Cronkite, account executive at FOX 5 DC, on Monday welcomed the newest Walter Leland “Lee” Cronkite, who joins big sister Wynnie. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: White House’s Allie Peck … NYT’s Helene Cooper and Elisabeth Goodridge … CNN’s Arlette Saenz … Alondra Nelson … POLITICO’s Elana Schor, Rob Hotakainen and Lauren DeCarlo … Axios’ Eugene Scott … WaPo’s Sari Horwitz … Joe Pounder of Bullpen Strategy Group … Education Department’s James Kvaal … Dahlia Lithwick … NBC’s Matt Korade … Christopher Jennison ... Sarah Hunt of the Joseph Rainey Center for Public Policy … Patrick Rucker … Wade Henderson … Ted Ellis of the House Republican Study Committee … Stars and Stripes’ Bob Reid … Glenn Simpson … Krista Jenusaitis Zuzenak … Allegra Kirkland ... Brian Forde … Anastasia Dellaccio ... SKDK’s Josh Dorner … former Reps. Jody Hice (R-Ga.) and Jim Langevin (D-R.I.) ... Nicole Bamber ... NewsNation’s Rob Yarin … Andrea LaRue ... Chung Seto … Julie Whiston … Don Graham … Yasmina Vinci of the National Head Start Association … MSNBC’s Natalie Munio … Saana Allie … Mark Braden … Walmart’s Gaurav Agrawal THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Speaker Kevin McCarthy … Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) … Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.). Panel: Jonathan D.T. Ward and Gordon Chang. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) … Kansas City, Mo., Mayor Quinton Lucas … Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu … Mike Pence. NBC “Meet the Press”: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu … Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). Panel: Rachael Bade, Eugene Robinson, Marc Short and Amy Walter. ABC “This Week”: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.). Gun violence panel: Jason Armstrong and Allison Anderman. Panel: Terry Moran, Heidi Heitkamp, Sarah Isgur and Marianna Sotomayor. CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). Panel: Karen Finney, Scott Jennings, Paul Begala and Alyssa Farah Griffin. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Asa Hutchinson … Pat Cohen … Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.). Panel: Olivia Beavers, Karl Rove, Tiffany Smiley and Juan Williams. MSNBC “PoliticsNation”: Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) … Chicago Mayor-elect Brandon Johnson … Joe Scarborough. MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: John Kerry … Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the title of the guest at the Bidens’ state dinner next week. It will be the president of South Korea. It also misstated the location of Tony Podesta’s wedding, which took place at his house in Kalorama. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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