Saturday, April 1, 2023

Fintech's future post-bank crisis

Also: Generative AI captures the tech world's attention; Synthetic data is another rapidly growing space; New research on Chinese VC and Japanese CVC.
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The Research Pitch
April 1, 2023
Synthetic data brief: Generative AI is getting a lot of buzz, but it's not the only exciting development in AI & ML. Synthetic data, which involves computer-generated outputs that complement real-world observations, is also a fast-growing space. To learn more, read our new research.

Corporate VC in Japan: Unlike in the US and the UK, corporate venture capitalists in Japan are a driving force when it comes to VC dealmaking. Our new research breaks down the opportunities and challenges Japanese CVCs face in a nascent market. Read it here.

Top three: In case you missed them, here were our most popular research notes from March:
 
What remains for fintech after a modern-day banking crisis
Within just the first quarter of this year, the fintech industry has already witnessed what seems to be a never-ending list of doomsday signals.

Most notably, that includes the downfall of four substantial banks—Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. But we've also seen Stripe's valuation drop 47% in a down round, Block shares plunge on fraud accusations, embedded finance darling Railsr reach insolvency, and much more.

It's therefore no surprise that fintech valuations have remained depressed. At the end of Q1, the median EV/NTM sales multiple for public neobanks, brokers, and crypto companies was 1.9x, compared to 4.2x for the prior year period. For multiples of high-growth fintech and payment companies, the trend was similar.

Fintech isn't dead, however.

Ample dry powder remains to be deployed from the sidelines, and VC fintech activity isn't far off from pre-2021 levels. VC deal value may have declined 39% YoY in 2022, but it was still up by 43% and 42% compared to 2020 and 2019 levels, respectively.
 
Enterprise fintech funding has outpaced retail in recent years.

And there's still a multitude of reasons why fintech funding will stay healthy going forward.

Whether in retail or enterprise, there are several large underserved and underbanked communities. Digital lenders and neobanks around the world have attempted to solve for this in the last several years, but they haven't cracked the code quite yet.

Critical gaps also remain to be filled in capital markets, B2B payments, know-your-customer and anti-money laundering, and infrastructure. Investors are certainly recognizing these opportunities, given B2B fintechs captured 62% of total VC in 2022.

It's most important, however, to remember that some of the greatest fintechs can rise in times of crisis. Looking back, Stripe, Venmo, and Square (now Block) all emerged from the ashes of the global financial crisis.

New opportunities are already presenting themselves following SVB's collapse, including sweep networks and better treasury management solutions. In addition, tough economic conditions can also amplify opportunities in specific segments.

In our Q4 Retail Fintech Report, for example, we highlight how challenged consumer wealth and market returns put the spotlight on loyalty & rewards and alternative asset solutions.

Current market conditions for fintech may be frightening, but it's still an exciting time for fintech. History has shown us that in the wake of financial catastrophes, there will always remain several founders sharing the same thought: "There has to be a better way."

If you're interested in additional fintech analysis, we have several reports coming soon. Our quarterly Fintech & Payments Public Comp Sheet and Valuation Guide comes out next week, with our Q1 2023 Retail and Enterprise Fintech Reports scheduled to be released shortly after.
 
Best,

Rudy Yang
Senior Analyst, Emerging Technology
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Market Updates  
 
Chinese VC is hoping to rebound from a difficult 2022.

Venture capital activity in Greater China—mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan—fell sharply last year as investors grappled with disruptive lockdowns and economic headwinds at home and abroad.

But a revamped IPO system and lifting of pandemic restrictions should improve prospects for startups.

Our new Greater China Venture Report, available in English, traditional Chinese, and simplified Chinese, unpacks the state of VC in the region:
get the free report
 
 
Emerging Tech Research  
 
A seemingly endless rush of AI product announcements and startup funding rounds was triggered when OpenAI's ChatGPT caught mainstream attention.

Players like Google and Microsoft are betting big on the vertical's future to transform industries like journalism and healthcare.

But how the user experience and business value of these tools shake out will determine whether this new wave will be any different.

Our AI & Machine Learning Report examines the vertical and lays out opportunities within foundation models, generative audio, and intelligent process automation:
read a free preview
 
 
With such a long history, insurance has had to continuously evolve to meet new challenges and push forward.

How are insurtech startups helping with that?

Our latest Insurtech Report examines the vertical's performance, VC dealmaking trends, and growth opportunities for investors.

Two emerging areas to watch are claims automation software and parametric insurance:
read a free preview
 
 
Thematic Research  

Reactions From the Game Developers Conference 2023

Startups and top industry players gather each year at the Game Developers Conference, showcasing the latest advances to help shape the next generation of games.

Our gaming analyst was on the ground in San Francisco this year and has the breakdown—from "Fortnite" creator Epic's splashy presence to a more subdued showing for blockchain and Web3:
read the free research
 
 
In the News  
 
Lead EMEA analyst Nalin Patel on valuations, IPOs, and more.

Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Discussing VC valuations, capital supply, liquidity, and more on Squawk Box Europe. [CNBC]

  • How SVB's collapse may hasten more VC pain: "We've been in a venture slowdown for a year now. This is just kind of the extra problem the market didn't need." [NY Times]

  • Why operating in a more regulated market means Medicaid startups have largely avoided the "growth at all costs" mentality that has tripped up their direct-to-consumer peers. [Forbes]

  • VCs have increased their positions in generative AI from $408 million in 2018 to $4.5 billion in 2022. [TechCrunch+]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
ICYMI  

Highlights from our other recent research:

Market updates
Thematic research
Industry & tech research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • Q1 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor: First Look
  • Global Markets Snapshot: March
  • Exploring European Buyout Multiples
  • The Transient Era of $1B+ VC Funds
  • Q1 Public Valuation Guides and Comp Sheets: Fintech, Agtech, Mobility
 

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