| | | | |  | | By Lawrence Ukenye, Matt Berg and Alexander Ward | | 
The muted response to Bola Tinubu's win in Nigeria's presidential election could have a lot to do with China, some analysts say. | Ben Curtis/AP Photo | With help from Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt As the U.S. works to re-engage Africa at a time when China’s influence on the continent looms large, a recent election in Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, could signal how Washington’s increased outreach is being received. Last week, Nigerians elected BOLA TINUBU, who hails from the All Progressives Congress party, to serve as the country’s next president following a tumultuous election cycle riddled with voter intimidation and suspected voting irregularities. Despite concern from foreign election observers in the country, the State Department quickly congratulated Tinubu on his victory. That muted response could have a lot to do with … China, some analysts say. “I think the Biden administration wants to be liked by Africans and is sensitive to the charge that has been made by Africans that [the U.S.] is paternalistic and overly critical of their models of governance,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ CAMERON HUDSON said. That has pushed many African countries to develop closer ties with China, he said, because Beijing doesn’t call them out over how they govern. The State Department did not immediately respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment. African countries have repeatedly claimed they don’t want to pick sides between the U.S. and China, but Nigeria may look to partner with each country where it suits their interests, which could further accelerate the competition on the continent. “[Nigeria] is going to want to have its cake and eat it too,” Hudson said. “It's going to want to take what it needs and what it can get from China and what it needs from Washington.” MUHAMMADU BUHARI, the country’s outgoing president, worked to cultivate cozier relations between Nigeria and China, leading to a slew of massive infrastructure projects including trains, highways and airport renovations. Chinese tech giant Huawei has also established a major presence within the country, raising concerns that Nigeria may have used the company to conduct public surveillance ahead of the election. But Nigeria also maintains a security partnership with the U.S. through weapons sales and counterterrorism operations against Islamist group Boko Haram. (Though Congress is trying to halt an already-approved sale of 24 attack helicopters to Nigeria due to concerns about the country’s alleged human rights abuses.) A slowdown in Washington’s weapons supplies could open the door for a security partnership with China, said W. GYUDE MOORE, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. "Africa comprises one of the biggest portions of China's weapons sales," Moore said. “So it is possible if the U.S. were to completely close the door so that Nigeria has no access to U.S. materials, then it makes sense for Nigeria to seek others.” In 2017, China opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti, and the Pentagon believes that Beijing is eyeing an installation in West Africa on the Atlantic coast. Despite the power dynamic between both superpowers, Moore believes there likely won’t be a drastic shift in Nigeria’s foreign policy considering the party in power will remain the same. “I think the most of the changes we're going to see are going to be more in domestic policy,” Moore said. “The new president has been around Nigerian politics for a long time.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | SECRETS, SECRETS: For years, the Department of Homeland Security has run a virtually unknown program gathering domestic intelligence, a tranche of internal documents reviewed by our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN shows. Under the domestic-intelligence program, officials are allowed to seek interviews with just about anyone in the U.S. That includes talking to people held in immigrant detention centers, local jails and federal prison — without consulting their lawyers. That aspect of the “Overt Human Intelligence Collection Program,” which has been in place for years, was paused last year because of internal concerns. DHS’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis, which runs the program, uses it to gather information about threats to the U.S., including transnational drug trafficking and organized crime. Leadership of one of the I&A’s offices “is ‘shady’ and ‘runs like a corrupt government,’” a former employee quoted in a document said two years ago. UKRAINE’S COUNTEROFFENSIVE: Russian forces appeared to be fully encircling Bakhmut this weekend until a powerful Ukrainian attack pushed back the invading troops once again. Over the weekend, hundreds of Ukrainian troops joined a counteroffensive, launching ground assaults and firing at Russian positions from the surrounding hills, The New York Times’ CARLOTTA GALL reports. Ukrainian officials acknowledged that the key strategic city is still at risk of being taken by Moscow, but the successful rebuke underscores Kyiv’s determination to hold onto the symbolic eastern stronghold. With battle ramping back up, Ukrainian officials also made a rare acknowledgment on Monday that its forces were responsible for a drone strike that destroyed an unmanned observation tower in Russia’s Bryansk region, NYT’s MARC SANTORA reports. In the past few weeks, the Kremlin has accused Kyiv of several drone strikes in its territory and a western invasion of its border, all of which Ukrainian officials did not claim responsibility for. Read: In Irpin, Ukrainians slowly rebuild their burned-out homes by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA. HAVANA TOUGH TIME: The Pentagon is continuing to probe the origins of the so-called Havana Syndrome despite spy agencies not finding evidence, five people familiar with the effort told our own LARA SELIGMAN and ERIN BANCO. The Pentagon’s research arm, including the Army and Air Force research laboratories, are testing weapon systems to try to determine what could cause the “anomalous health incidents,” according to two former intelligence officials with knowledge of the efforts. Meanwhile, a “cross-functional team” in the Pentagon mandated by Congress “remains focused” on addressing the incidents, DoD spokesperson Lt. Col. DEVIN ROBINSON said in a statement. This includes “the causation, attribution, mitigation, identification and treatment for such incidents,” Robinson said. MCCARTHY’S TAIWAN VISIT, IN CALI?: House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY will meet with Taiwan president TSAI ING-WEN in an unlikely location: California. That’s a notable change of scenery from his originally promised trip to Taiwan, a change of plans designed to avoid an aggressive response from Beijing like when former Speaker NANCY PELOSI visited last summer, the Financial Times’ KATHRIN HILLE and DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO report. “We shared some intelligence about what the Chinese Communist party is recently up to and the kinds of threats they pose,” a senior Taiwanese official said about information Taipei had provided to McCarthy’s team. MORE SECRETS: Israel and key gulf states are secretly pressing Moscow to not send Tehran advanced military hardware like helicopters and fighter jets, fearing that a strengthening alliance between the two could destabilize the Middle East and isolate Russia in the future. Officials from Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have voiced their concerns directly to the Kremlin in past months, Mideast and U.S. officials briefed on the discussions told Semafor’s JAY SOLOMON. That comes as the trio of nations worries about Iran’s increased military abilities as it helps Russia with the war in Ukraine, the officials said. SHOW ME WHAT YOU GOT: A pair of Ukrainian pilots are in the U.S. for an assessment of their skills in flying fighter jets, even as administration officials say there are no plans to send F-16s to Kyiv for now, Lara reported on Sunday. During the program, which is taking place at an Air National Guard base in Tucson, Ariz., the pilots have been flying aircraft simulators so the U.S. military can evaluate their flying and mission-planning capabilities, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The pilots will not fly U.S. aircraft. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | PUTTING PEN TO PAPER: Potential presidential hopeful JOHN BOLTON said that Putin’s decision to suspend the nuclear pact with the United States “could be a blessing.” In a Washington Post piece, the former Trump natsec adviser made the argument that the Kremlin’s move the halt the New START treaty — which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads both countries can deploy — could be positive if it prompts the U.S. to reconsider China as another major nuclear power that needs to be reckoned with, rather than solely focusing on Russia. “China’s coming attainment of peer status as a nuclear power, and its entente with nuclear-superpower Russia, is a global threat,” Bolton wrote. “For making the urgency clear, thank you, President Putin.” While Bolton hasn’t officially announced a run, he continues to lay the groundwork. And he wasn’t alone, as another potential contender published a foreign policy-focused piece over the weekend: former New York Mayor MIKE BLOOMBERG. After his failed bid for the Democratic ticket in 2020, the 81-year-old billionaire has stayed away from talks about seeking public office. But in a New York Times opinion piece on Sunday, Bloomberg critiqued the damage Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s far-right government has done on the economy and its potential overrule of the judicial system. So far, there’s been no word whatsoever that Bloomberg might throw his hat into the ring. But with no Democratic contenders announced other than MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, the outspoken criticism from a staunch Israeli ally could draw some attention to his potential candidacy.
| | | BUSTED: European police and the FBI disrupted an international cybercrime gang tied to Russia, which has been blackmailing large companies and organizations for years, the Associated Press’ FRANK JORDANS reports. Authorities identified 11 people linked to the group, which has banked tens of millions of dollars in more than a decade of activity. It’s allegedly behind the ransomware known as DoppelPaymer, which authorities believe to be tied to Evil Corp, a Russia-based syndicate focusing on online bank theft. In late February, police conducted raids in Germany and Ukraine, seeing evidence and apprehending some of the suspects while three remain at large. LAWMAKERS ASSEMBLE: Freshman members of several key House committees are aiming to point a renewed focus at cyber threats facing the nation into the 118th Congress, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). In interviews, new House and Senate lawmakers laid out their priorities, including securing elections ahead of the 2024 presidential race, shoring up the security of critical utilities against cyber threats from nations including Russia and China, and improving oversight of federal agencies key to the cyber mission. Get a slice of Maggie’s dispatch in our (free) Weekly Cybersecurity newsletter.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | NEW STARTUP: CHAOS Industries, a defense technology startup focused on using artificial intelligence and other new tools, has raised $70 million in venture capital led by 8VC, our own LEE HUDSON writes in. The engineering team is led by co-founder BO MARR formerly of Epirus, IBM and Raytheon Technologies. The company’s founders come from the intelligence community, Palantir Technologies and Raytheon. The company’s most mature product is a sensor that provides real-time surveillance using cryptographic technology. CHAOS Industries has entered undisclosed arrangements with both government and commercial customers.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — MORE EYES, PLEASE: Reps. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) and MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) sent a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN on Monday calling for additional oversight on the aid sent to Ukraine for its fight against Russia. In the letter, the lawmakers ask the State Department to allow additional inspector general personnel into Ukraine to conduct oversight on the nearly $100 billion in military and humanitarian support provided to Kyiv. The current embassy cap limits the number of personnel allowed to travel to Ukraine, causing U.S. agencies to conduct some oversight of the aid from outside Ukraine. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — PENDING SALE: Sens. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) and MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii) introduced a bill to extend the FCC’s spectrum auction authority until Sept. 30, arguing that the Defense Department should be able to complete its spectrum study before any sales. Previously extended in December, the authority is set to expire on March 9, and a two-month extension is expected to be considered in the Senate this week. There has been pressure over which frequencies of spectrum — radio waves used in broadcast television, cell phones and broadband services — to sell to the private sector and what to do with that money. Under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2023, the DoD must conclude a study on the spectrum it needs by August. “The premature auction of spectrum must not jeopardize the systems that depend on radars and other critical sensors to protect our troops and our citizens from air or missile attacks,” Rounds said in a statement. HELLO, CUBA: Sens. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.), JERRY MORAN (R-Kan.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kan.) and ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) reintroduced legislation to lift the Cuba trade embargo. If passed, the Freedom to Export to Cuba Act would do away with legal barriers stopping Americans from doing business in Cuba, the lawmakers say. It would also create new economic opportunities by boosting U.S. exports and allowing Cubans greater access to American goods. While the bill repeals parts of existing laws that block Americans from doing business in Cuba, it keeps laws that address human rights or property claims against the island’s government.
| | | BIDEN REBUFFS BRITAIN: The Biden administration has turned down the U.K.’s multiple requests to develop an advanced trade and technology dialogue similar to structures the U.S. set up with the European Union, our own GRAHAM LANKTREE reports. On visits to Washington as a Cabinet minister over the past two years, LIZ TRUSS urged U.S. Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO and senior Biden administration officials to intensify talks with the U.K. to build clean technology supply chains and boost collaboration on artificial intelligence and semiconductors. After Truss became prime minister last fall, the idea was floated again when Raimondo visited London in October, according to people familiar with the conversations. But influencing Washington has proved to be an arduous task: “We tried many times,” a former British senior official said of the government’s efforts to set up a U.K. equivalent to the U.S.-E.U. Trade and Technology Council.
| | | |   | | | | | | — JEFF NAFT is now comms director for the House Intelligence Committee. He previously was comms adviser for then-House GOP Whip STEVE SCALISE (R-La.). — WILL POPLAWSKI is now deputy press secretary for the House China committee. He previously was the media and policy director at Polaris National Security. — BRITNEY DICKERSON is now director of comms for Polaris National Security. She previously was comms director for Rep. DIANA HARSHBARGER (R-Tenn.).
| | | — LESIA DUBENKO, POLITICO: To punish Putin, the West must talk to the Global South as partners — LIANA FIX, The Washington Post: Germany must do more on defense. But critics should be patient. — MATT FIELD, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: Can a 1975 bioweapons ban handle today’s biothreats?
| | | — The National Press Club, 9 a.m.: 2023 Global Security Forum — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The Posture of United States Special Operations Command and United States Cyber Command in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2024 and the Future Years Defense — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Ahead of the NATO Summit in Vilnius: A Conversation with GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania — The Air and Space Forces Association, 10 a.m.: 2023 AFA Warfare Symposium — Senate Appropriations Committee, 10 a.m.: Briefing: A Review of the Department of Defense Health Program — The United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: Women’s Changing Roles and Leadership During the War in Ukraine — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: House Intelligence leaders on China, Russia and bipartisanship — The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 4:45 p.m.: The Downfall of the American Order? — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: The War in Ukraine: A Belgian Perspective Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would vote us out of writing this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who would ensure a fair election process if that happens.
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